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Credit unions: A cheaper, under-the-radar mortgage option – Ask a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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156350123When you last shopped for a mortgage, did you consult with a credit union? If you’re like more than four out of five recent home buyers, you didn’t.

Most mortgage shoppers overlook credit unions (CUs) because they think the rates aren’t good enough, or CUs aren’t convenient enough, or that they’ll save more by consolidating banking at their bank. But credit unions are dead set on changing those perceptions, and they’re fuelling mortgage competition in the process.

We saw that competitive spirit in February when Meridian, the country’s fourth-largest credit union, became the first major financial institution in 2014 with a five-year fixed mortgage under 3 per cent. That first mover advantage paid off. “Our pipeline of mortgages is double what it was last year,” says Meridian chief member services officer Bill Whyte.

And just this month, Ontario’s DUCA Financial Services launched the lowest five-year fixed rate in the country through select mortgage brokers.

As we speak, the top 10 CUs are advertising five-year fixed rates that average 0.56 percentage points lower than the top 10 banks, according to RateSpy.com. That’s not including the profit sharing that some CUs pay mortgage customers. These “member dividends” can range up to $200-plus per year for every $100,000 of mortgage.

Of course, banks can and do offer “discretionary” rates below their advertised rates. But discretionary rates aren’t visible on the Internet, where four out of five consumers go to research mortgages. That benefits credit unions, to the extent they publish lower advertised rates.

Like credit unions, banks are also recognizing that low rates can sell themselves. Bank of Montreal’s much-publicized 2.99-per-cent promotions helped make it No. 1 among big banks in mortgage market share growth since 2012. And now we’re seeing other banks jump on that bandwagon, including Bank of Nova Scotia and Toronto-Dominion Bank, which both ran sub-3 per cent five-year fixed specials this spring.

But credit unions are going a little further to win mortgage share, and people are taking notice. In 2013, CU mortgage portfolios grew 58 per cent faster than the overall market. And they show no signs of letting up.

CUs kicked their mortgage campaigns into high gear last summer. And the market share growth chart at the bottom of this column shows it. Credit union analyst David McVay, of McVay and Associates, attributes that growth spurt largely to credit unions’ “aggressive pricing.”

But low rates aren’t their only edge. CUs also pitch that they are member owned, not owned by outside investors. They don’t have to pay dividends to 3rd-party shareholders, which lets them work on smaller margins and/or pay dividends to their customers instead.

Regulation is also an advantage. “Being provincially regulated, we have more mortgage options available to our members than the big banks,” Meridian’s Mr. Whyte says, “… and we’re appropriately leveraging that, albeit not cutting any corners.”

Those mortgage “advantages” vary widely by credit union, but can include higher borrowing limits on a home equity line of credit, 35-year amortizations for those putting down 20 per cent or more, 100 per cent financing and easier qualification rules for conventional variable-rate mortgages and terms less than five years.

But if credit unions are so great, why do they have a piddly 8 to 13 per cent of mortgage market share, depending on whose statistics you believe?

Awareness is a major challenge. CUs don’t have $200-million to $300-million a year to spend on marketing like the banks do. “I would suggest we haven’t got our story out there about how co-operative banking is an alternative to the banks … and the fact that we can do almost everything the banks can do,” Mr. Whyte says.

To counter that, CUs are increasingly running high-profile rate specials, some of which are being picked up by the media. They’re also doing a lot of joint marketing. Last year, for example, a group of Ontario credit unions got together to promote co-operative banking. They’ve never done that before, Mr. Whyte says.

One area where banks outclass most credit unions is mortgage funding, an area where credit unions are clearly not created equal. However, the larger CUs – Vancouver City Savings Credit Union, Coast Capital, Servus and Meridian – can compete with the big banks through their access to millions of dollars of cheap deposits, their main source of mortgage funding.

After deposits, the next cheapest way to fund mortgages is securitization – i.e., packing mortgages and selling them to investors. And CUs are securitizing like never before. In Ontario, for example, CU mortgage securitization grew 36.2 per cent last quarter, dramatically faster than the industry.

Compared to the big boys, smaller credit unions don’t have as much low-cost capital, so they’re often not as competitive on rates. But even there you can find exceptions, like Toronto’s Slovenia Credit Union and its 2.89-per-cent five-year fixed.

The Internet is the great equalizer for micro-credit unions like Slovenia. Whenever they have excess deposits to lend out, they can cheaply advertise ultra-low rates online to thousands of potential customers. “The Internet will help [credit unions] level the playing field with the big banks,” Mr. Whyte adds.

The Internet also makes it easier to attract new customers. Meridian, for example, is launching a new website next month that lets people join the credit union online, instead of driving to a branch.

Despite their co-operative spirit, however, CUs have an uphill battle to steal share from the dominant banks. Banks are ubiquitous and perceived safe, so people park most of their accounts with them. Moreover, consumers’ preference for one-stop financial shopping gives banks an edge in the mortgage game.

But mortgages are a big deal to CUs too. They account for about half of their revenue and roughly 60 per cent of the loans they make. Furthermore, mortgages give them a chance to cross-sell things such as credit cards, GICs and RRSPs.

So despite being around for 113 years, this is only the beginning for Canadian credit unions in the mortgage market. They’re going to battle to the bone for your mortgage, and the competition they incite will benefit all borrowers.

Editor’s note: A previous version of this story mis-identified Mr. Whyte.

Robert McLister is a mortgage planner at intelliMortgage Inc. and founder ofRateSpy.com. You can follow him on Twitter at @RateSpy and@CdnMortgageNews.

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Don’t get complacent about risks of housing downturn, OSFI warns lenders and insurers – Consult with a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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homesCanada’s top banking regulator is urging mortgage lenders and insurers not to grow complacent despite healthy bank capital levels and predictions of a soft landing in the housing market.

In a speech at a C.D. Howe Institute housing conference on Thursday, Mark Zelmer, deputy superintendent of the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, highlighted the continuing growth in household debt relative to income.

“I would not presume to claim that borrowers are acting irrationally or do not know what they are doing. But, by same token, it is clear that the ability of the household sector as a whole to absorb major shocks is less now than it was a decade ago,” Mr. Zelmer said in his prepared remarks.

It is clear that the ability of the household sector as a whole to absorb major shocks is less now than it was a decade ago

“Moreover, with interest rates near record low levels, there is not much scope for interest rates in Canada or the United States to fall further – something that helped people weather storms in the past,” he said.

Mr. Zelmer said having well-capitalized lenders might not be enough in times of stress, noting that creditors and investors often lose confidence in financial institutions before they run out of capital.

“Recall that some financial institutions lost access to funding markets in the midst of the global financial crisis even though they were reporting healthy regulatory capital ratios at the time,” he said. “Sitting back and relying on capital is not enough for either financial institutions or prudential supervisors.”

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Mr. Zelmer said stress tests, which so far indicate Canadian banks are prepared for a downturn, should not be viewed as overarching “safe harbours” because they are based on models and arbitrary assumptions.

“The results are … comforting. But given the considerable uncertainty associated with stress test results, they are but one input into our decision-making,” Mr. Zelmer said.

“Boards and senior management of financial institutions need to apply judgment in a forward-looking manner and not become too complacent in their capital planning exercises.”

While Canada’s recent housing activity has been far less troubled in recent years than in other markets such as the United States, Mr. Zelmer reminded his audience of the downturn experienced a couple of decades ago.

“Canada has not been immune from significant real estate corrections in the past and the damage they can inflict, as those of you who worked in the early 1980s and 1990s would know,” he said.

“We all have an interest in ensuring housing markets and the financial intermediation supporting them function smoothly.”

Mr. Zelmer noted that consumer debt relative to household income continues to grow at a rate of 4%. And while this is slower than in the past, he noted a small but important group of Canadians who are in a potentially difficult situation “camouflaged” by low interest rates. This group is taking on debt “to make ends meet in the wake of unfortunate life events such as job losses or marriage breakdowns,” he said.

This situation could prove especially tough if house prices don’t remain as strong as expected.

“We believe it makes sense to work with mortgage lenders and insurers to reduce the likelihood of serious problems in the first place by promoting strong governance and risk management controls around mortgage lending and insurance underwriting activities,” Mr. Zelmer said. “This is especially true given residential real estate lending represents more than 60 per cent of bank lending in Canada.”

In his speech, Mr. Zelmer said mortgage underwriting practices have evolved. And while they appear good today, he warned, “past experience suggests that it could become very tempting in the current environment for mortgage lenders and insurers to ease up under the enchanting lull of the siren song of market share.”

‘HGTV effect’ pushes home renovation spending to record $63-billion – Consult with a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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home-renovationTORONTO • It could be just the impact of all those home-renovation television programs, but Canadians are fixing up their properties like never before, according to a new report.

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“Willingness, at least in part, can be attributed to what is sometimes referred to as the HGTV effect,” Toronto-based real estate consultants Altus Group said, referring to the television station HGTV Canada that launched in 1997 with an emphasis on home renovation. “Many homeowners did not know how badly they really wanted new designer kitchens until then.”

Renovation spending has been rising for 15 straight years and reached a record $63.4-billion in 2013, which accounted for 3.7% of total Canadian gross domestic product, Altus said. More money is being spent on renovation than on all new home construction.

It’s not just leaky roofs that are part of that spending; three of every four renovation dollars are being spent on real home improvement. In real dollar terms, renovation spending jumped 2.7% in 2013.

Altus is predicting about 3% growth in real dollar terms in renovation spending both this year and next as homeowners turn to sprucing up their abodes in the face of record home prices.

“Broad economic and employment growth in 2014 are positive for higher disposable income. This, combined with still robust home sales and continued low interest rates, should support further growth,” Altus said in the report, released Monday.

Canada has a larger housing stock than it did a decade ago, which is partly why renovation spending has more than doubled since the latter 1990s. But Altus estimates only 25% of the growth is due to the greater number of houses, with three quarters of that attributable to people just spending more per housing unit.

In the past five years, renovation per occupied housing unit was about $4,600 per year, up from $2,500 per year from the 1994-1998 period.

Home owners pulled money out of their homes only to put it right back in

Altus said there is a “willingness and ability” to undertake renovation work.

The willingness may come from seeing fancy kitchens on TV, but the ability to pay for these renovations can be attributed to lower interest rates and rising home values that have left homeowners with more equity to tap into for a substantial upgrade.

“Essentially, home owners pulled money out of their homes only to put it right back in,” said Altus, which found mortgage financing and home equity lines of credit were the most common method to get cash for a project.

However, Altus also noted statistics from Bank of Canada show many people have the cash to do projects without borrowing. From 1999-2010, borrowing only accounted for 25% of all renovation work.

Alberta is expected to lead the pack in renovation spending in 2014 and 2015 with the Altus survey indicating a growth in spending of 5% each year in the province.

On a dollar level, Ontario and Quebec still account for most of the activity in the country with two of every three renovation dollars spent in those provinces. Ontario spending is forecast to grow 2.6% next year, just below the 2.9% national average.

Facing limited supply in Canada, home builder buys chunk of U.S. land – Consult with a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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archi31re8The Globe’s Real Estate Beat offers news and analysis on the Canadian housing market from real estate reporter Tara Perkins. Read more on The Globe’s housing page and follow Tara on Twitter @TaraPerkins.

Canada’s largest developer of new houses has bought its biggest piece of land ever – and it’s in the United States.

Mattamy Homes Ltd., which bills itself as “Canada’s largest new home builder,” is increasingly looking south of the border for expansion as it grows frustrated with the limited supply of land that’s available for new homes in cities like Toronto and Ottawa because of red tape and efforts to contain urban sprawl.

Its U.S. ambitions have taken a leap forward with an $86.25-million (U.S.) purchase of more than 9,600 acres of land in the Sarasota area of southwest Florida. The land is roughly the size of Newmarket Ontario, and Mattamy is hoping that over the next 20 to 25 years close to 15,000 homes might be built on it (it’s currently zoned for about 11,000). The deal closed about three weeks ago.

The deal comes about six months after Mattamy bought land in Jacksonville that will hold about 4,500 units.

“You don’t buy 4,500 units in Canada, it’s just not possible,” chief operating officer Brian Johnston says. “It’s just way too big. We did a deal for about 500 units in Milton, and that was really big for us.”

Mattamy is still forming its plans for the Sarasota land, but it expects that 10 to 15 separate communities will be developed on it, each having somewhere between 700 and 2,000 units. “One might be a lake community, another might be a golf course community, another might be a higher-density single-family community, another one could just be open spaces with walking trails,” Mr. Johnston says.

The plans will mainly be designed for empty-nesters and retirees. Mattamy might not chew off all of the development by itself, and is already receiving calls from local builders who are looking at buying pieces.

The Canadian home builder has been active in the U.S. for more than a decade, but until recently its presence has been relatively small.

But now the company is restraining itself in its home market because of a dwindling supply of available land for new houses.

“We’ve basically taken the view we’re going to control the size of our business in Canada, so we’ve more or less capped it,” Mr. Johnston says.

“Buying land is very difficult. If it’s got approvals, it’s incredibly expensive. If it doesn’t have approvals you’re waiting a long time… “We’ve created such an onerous planning system in this country, and I would argue that’s one of the reasons that we see such significant house price inflation. We’ve made it difficult for ourselves to get land through the planning system, and that’s creating this supply constraint. So you’re seeing much higher (house) prices, and a lot more high-rise condominiums.”

Mattamy toyed with the idea of building condos in Toronto, going so far as to buy land to do so, but backed out after deciding against the idea.

Follow  on Twitter: @taraperkins

CMHC to return to lower-risk roots – Consult with a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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evan-siddall17rb1The head of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. is shifting the priority of the mortgage insurer to helping Canadians buy homes they need, not the bigger, pricier homes they might want.

Chief executive officer Evan Siddall said in an exclusive interview that his first six months on the job have been focused on building an organization that will be more flexible and transparent, one that will do more to emphasize its social housing role and less to subsidize the banks. And one that will only help Canadians purchase homes they need. That will result in fewer and smaller new insurance policies, and will stem the risk to Canadian taxpayers of losses at CMHC should the housing market slump.

 

“We help Canadians meet their housing needs, not exceed them,” Mr. Siddall told The Globe and Mail’s editorial board, as he outlined the mandate that will guide his time at the helm of the mortgage insurer.

It’s a return in direction back CMHC’s roots, after a period in which it was accused of stoking the housing market. CMHC is the country’s dominant seller of mortgage insurance, which essentially reimburses lenders if a borrower defaults on a mortgage. The insurance is mandatory any time a federally-regulated lender sells a mortgage to someone who doesn’t have a down payment of at least 20 per cent. While the banks are technically responsible for paying the insurance fees, in practice they pass them on to home buyers.

Mortgage insurance reduces the risks to the banks, encouraging them to lend more, and making it easier and cheaper to obtain mortgages.

The Crown corporation was created in 1946 to help returning war veterans buy homes, but it has grown to become the size of one of Canada’s biggest banks. Over the past 10 years CMHC has at times dabbled in backing 40-year mortgages with no down payment, mortgages on second homes, mortgages on homes worth seven figures, and loans for condominium construction. But it has been recently scaling back amid fears of taxpayer exposure to the housing market

CMHC has an explicit government guarantee, leaving taxpayers on the hook if things go sour. Mr. Siddall said he does not believe the housing market is in dangerous territory, but even so, managing risk for taxpayers is a “sacred obligation.”

In recent months, the insurer has rolled out a string of changes that have underlined the shift in emphasis, including eliminating insurance for second homes and all individual insurance on homes over $1-million.

“The first thing we did as an executive group is we spent a lot of time thinking about our purpose,” said Mr. Siddall, a former investment banker at Bank of Montreal and Goldman Sachs & Co., who also worked as a special adviser to former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney.

Mr. Siddall is continuing the direction that was set for the organization by former finance minister Jim Flaherty, who started pulling the government’s backing for homes priced over $1-million two years ago. But he is also putting his own stamp on CMHC at a time when current Finance Minister Joe Oliver has said he plans to take a less active role in the housing sector.

“We manage the government’s exposure to the tail risk of a housing crisis,” Mr. Siddall said. “And we do that with taxpayers’ money. That’s a sacred obligation and a core obligation of what we do.”

He added that the Crown corporation is choosing to cut its own risks. “There has been speculation that these changes have been imposed on us by Finance. That’s not true,” he said. “In fact, my first meeting with the Minister of Finance won’t be until later this week.”

That’s not to say there hasn’t been interaction with government, which recently placed the deputy minister of finance on CMHC’s board. Ottawa has been working to stem the growth of CMHC because it has racked up massive taxpayer exposure to the housing market, and some of its products have helped to fuel house prices.

Mr. Siddall said the Canadian market is “modestly overvalued” but he believes that there will be a soft landing, meaning a gradual petering out as opposed to any crash in prices.

“If prices continue to grow, all things being equal, we would be worried,” he said. “But we are not concerned right now about the level of prices or the level of activity in the housing market.”

Sales of existing homes in Canada sprang to life in May, rising 5.9 per cent from April, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). That’s the highest month-to-month increase in almost four years, and was much higher than economists expected.

“The housing market remains remarkably resilient,” Bank of Montreal economist Benjamin Reitzes said in a research note. “As long as rates remain at rock-bottom levels, housing isn’t like to weaken much, if at all.”

While sales slumped through the cold winter months, price growth has continued to be relatively strong. CREA said Monday that it now expects the national average home price will rise 5.7 per cent this year to $404,300. In March it was forecasting a 3.8-per-cent increase to $397,000.

While the current prices don’t concern Mr. Siddall, he said the organization is worried about consumer debt levels.

“We are concerned about the elevated level of Canadian consumer indebtedness,” he said, adding that it removes consumers’ ability to withstand an unforeseen event.

During the meeting with The Globe, he emphasized the importance of CMHC’s basic role in the market, while acknowledging that more should be done to shift risk back to the banks and the private sector. His comments come amid criticism from groups such as the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which argued in a report about the state of Canada’s economy last week that the government should consider privatizing CMHC’s insurance activities.

“People like the OECD, when they wonder about our model, kind of miss the memo about the role CMHC can play,” Mr. Siddall said. “Now, we [do] have a responsibility to attend to how large that should be.”

The OECD also called for changes to the system to ensure lenders take on more risk for home loans. It noted that in other countries with mortgage insurance, the insurance tends to cover 10 to 30 per cent of the losses, rather than 100 per cent, and suggested imposing a deductible.

The concept of a deductible is a “pretty good idea,” Mr. Siddall said, although it would take some time to be put into practice in Canada.

Finance Minister Oliver said Monday that the idea of having CMHC insure only a portion of mortgages, rather than the entire loan, is one that could be looked at. Mr. Oliver said he would like to see the private sector mortgage insurers take a larger share of the market and that when it comes to taking further steps to reduce risk, “the specific decisions taken by CMHC will be their decision.”

When it comes to CMHC’s large securitization arm, which essentially packages up mortgages and sells them as bonds or helps banks sell them, Mr. Siddall said he’s worried that it’s a low-cost form of wholesale funding for the institutions and “that means we’re subsidizing banks. … And that is something that over time we should address.”

It’s too soon to say how, he added. “We’ve got to make sure we do it in a way that’s supportive of markets, that we do it in consultation with banks so that we don’t disrupt their businesses,” he said.

With files from reporter Bill Curry in Ottawa

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Canadian home prices rise a modest 0.8% in May, typically one of the strongest months for sales: Teranet

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housesTORONTO — Canadian home prices rose in May but the pace of 12-month home price appreciation decelerated slightly, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index showed on Thursday.

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A new report suggests housing market has stronger legs than thought because echo boomers, who now outnumber their parents, are poised to flood the market.Keep reading.

The index, which measures price changes for repeat sales of single-family homes, showed national home prices rose 0.8% last month, a modest reading compared to historical May readings for what is traditionally one of the strongest sales months of the year.

Prices were up 4.6% from a year earlier, a slowdown from April’s 4.9% price gain.

Meanwhile, Statistics Canada said Thursday its new housing price index rose 0.2% in April, following identical increases in both February and March.

The agency says the combined metropolitan region of Toronto and Oshawa, Ont., was the top contributor to the increase and had the largest monthly price advance in April, as prices rose 0.7%.

That is the largest monthly price increase for the region since November 2011.

New home prices in Calgary rose 0.6% and were up 0.2% in Hamilton, Winnipeg and the combined region of Saint John, N.B., Fredericton and Moncton, N.B.

Prices slipped in six metropolitan areas in April. Prices were down 0.5% in Regina and fell 0.3% in Vancouver.

© Thomson Reuters 2014

Bank of Canada warns Toronto’s condo market a ‘pocket of vulnerability’ in Canada’s housing sector

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condos_np5The Bank of Canada singled out Toronto’s condo market in its report on risks facing the country’s economy and financial system Thursday.

The central bank said in its Financial System Review that though Canada’s housing market was broadly in line with demand, the level of condo building was significantly above historical averages.

chart9

“While some of this increase can be explained by demographics, shifting preferences toward living in the city core, and raising commuting costs, the substantial increase in construction over the past 15 years has raised questions about its sustainability,” the bank wrote.

The bank highlights the Toronto condo market of particular concern because of the widening gap between the growing supply and dwindling demand.

Bank of Canada
Bank of Canada

The Bank said the number of unsold condos in the pre-construction stage also remains high. And prices for new units, at all stages of construction, have remained flat despite stronger sales so far in 2014.

Bank of Canada
Bank of Canada

The Bank worries that a correction in this “important market” could spill into the broader housing market, bringing down prices and sales.

Monster May for housing sales doesn’t mean the market won’t slow – Consult with a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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canada_soldMay was a phenomenal month for existing homes sales across the country but the jump in activity might say more about the harsh winter than the state of the market.

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The Calgary housing market is so hot that an economist reported Tuesday that only 15 condominiums in the city remained built and unsold last month. Find out more

The Canadian Real Estate Association said Monday that sales in May jumped 5.9% from April which was the largest monthly increase in more than four years. Sales jumped in 80% of the markets surveyed by the group.

“Over the past 25 years, that widespread a monthly sales increase has been recorded only a handful of times,” said Beth Crosbie, president of CREA.

The group said there was a “delayed start” to the spring buying season as people deferred putting their homes on the market until the end of a harsh winter. With summer just about here, the group doesn’t think the pace of the last month can be maintained.

That’s a view held by many in the market.

“I think you are seeing the rougher winter held back supply and then it came on stream. It’s starting to balance out a bit,” said Martin Reid, president of Home Capital. “We think the price appreciation we saw in cities like Toronto will normalize.”

The average price of a home sold across the country in May reached $416,584, a 7.1% increase from a year earlier. Remove Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver from the equation and the average price was just $336,373 last month with prices up 5.3% from a year ago.

CREA isn’t predicting any sort of crash and says sales should reach 463,400 this year, buoyed by continued low interest rates. At that level, sales would be up 1.2% from a year ago. By 2015, it expects another 0.9% increase in sales.

Prices also have some room to grow, says the group which is predicting the average home will sell for $404,300 this year, a 5.7% annual increase. Prices are forecast to only rise 0.7% next year.

Mr. Reid thinks price increases will be flat to 5% this year depending on the market with Toronto and Calgary being the exceptions. He warns people might need to get used to a new reality in housing.

“Price appreciation will be a lot slower than what we’ve seen over the last 10 years over the next few years though we see sales activity as reasonably good,” he said.

Robert Kavcic, an economist with Bank of Montreal, said while the housing market looks “balanced and sturdy overall,” once you check a little more closely you see individual markets like Toronto and Calgary are performing better.

“One reason policymakers might be a bit hesitant to act again soon is that strong price gains are confined to a few select markets, or even sub-markets, while a wide swath of the country (at least geographically) is seeing downright dreary conditions,” the economist said Monday.

Robert Hogue, senior economist with Royal Bank of Canada, cautioned that the huge jump in sales activity in May probably won’t hold up for the rest of the year.

“For the most part, [May sales] represent a temporary burst that will not be sustained much longer because there is minimal pent up demand to satisfy,” he said. “We expect the Canadian housing market to enter a moderation phase later this year once long-term interest rates start to raise.”

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Bank of Canada warns Toronto’s condo market a ‘pocket of vulnerability’ in Canada’s housing sector

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The Bank of Canada singled out Toronto’s condo market in its report on risks facing the country’s economy and financial system Thursday.

The central bank said in its Financial System Review that though Canada’s housing market was broadly in line with demand, the level of condo building was significantly above historical averages.

chart9

“While some of this increase can be explained by demographics, shifting preferences toward living in the city core, and raising commuting costs, the substantial increase in construction over the past 15 years has raised questions about its sustainability,” the bank wrote.

The bank highlights the Toronto condo market of particular concern because of the widening gap between the growing supply and dwindling demand.

Bank of Canada
Bank of Canada

The Bank said the number of unsold condos in the pre-construction stage also remains high. And prices for new units, at all stages of construction, have remained flat despite stronger sales so far in 2014.

Bank of Canada
Bank of Canada

The Bank worries that a correction in this “important market” could spill into the broader housing market, bringing down prices and sales.

Young urban condo buyers: Why not rent instead? – Consult with a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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gi-carrick10rb1Question for all the young adults buying condos these days: What are you thinking?

Rent that little box in the sky and save your money for a house later on. Don’t buy something you’re going to grow out of in a few years.

“When you run the numbers, renting is probably a bit cheaper,” said David Fleming, a Realtor with Bosley Real Estate and writer of the Toronto Realty Blog. “But [young adults] think the market is going to go up, they want to pay down principal, they want pride of ownership. I’ve probably sold seven or eight condos this year to kids under 25.”

Mr. Fleming said some young buyers get help from parents to buy their condos, and then manage the monthly carrying costs of the mortgage and condo fees by finding a roommate to pay rent. Yet because young buyers tend to stay in their condos for only a short while, renting is still the better choice.

“I would say buyers in their 20s probably won’t live in that condo for five years,” Mr. Fleming said. “They’re going to either outgrow it, or find a mate and want a bigger, better or different place.”

Even if you meet someone and live together in your condo, you’ll probably want to move when you have kids. Mr. Fleming said an increasing number of couples are starting families in condos, but a house is still seen by most as the best place to do this.

Moving from a condo you own to a house will cost you a lot. If you used a real estate agent to sell the place, you might pay a $15,000 commission plus HST to sell a $300,000 condo. “It’s expensive to move,” Mr. Fleming said. “Hopefully you purchased that condo for $250,000.”

Condo prices are rising in some cities, so you might have that going for you if you buy. Data for May show the average condo price rose 6.7 per cent in Edmonton to $251,688. Calgary condos rose 1.9 per cent on average to $315,953, and downtown Toronto condos rose 7.6 per cent to $401,809. “I was a bit of a condo bear and now I’ve basically thrown my hands up,” Mr. Fleming said of the Toronto market.

But, as he is quick to point out, not all condos are equally good investments. Mr. Fleming said there are some poorly built condos in downtown Toronto that won’t hold their value as well as higher quality buildings. His description of one particular development is hilarious: “There’s no soundproofing, people are partying and puking in the lobby, there’s honking, there’s no infrastructure nearby – where do I get a coffee, where do my dry cleaning?”

Rent a downtown condo, don’t buy one. You still get to live the urban lifestyle and reduce commuting times. You’ll also have a decent selection of rentals to choose from. Mr. Fleming said Toronto’s overall rental market is tight, but one bedroom condos available to rent are plentiful. Two-bedroom, two-bath condos? Not so much.

A quick run through Kijiji found downtown Toronto one-bedroom condos for rent at $1,500 to $1,600 range. If you bought a similar condo for $300,000, then your mortgage payments would be $1,391 per month, assuming a 3-per-cent mortgage rate and a 5-per-cent down payment of $15,000.

Renting becomes a cheaper option when you add condo fees to that mortgage payment at about $400 a month and property taxes at $180 a month. Factor in the kind of home improvements that owners tend to make and you’ve got an even bigger rent-buy spread in costs.

There’s a theory that buying a small condo is like training camp for owning a home – you learn about mortgages, interest rates, budgeting and maintenance costs. Here’s a better way to prepare to own a home: Rent a condo and park all the money you’re saving as a renter in a nice, safe high-interest savings account held in a tax-free savings account. In the example just above, you’d save about $370 a month by renting. In a high interest account paying 1.25 per cent, you would end up with $22,894 after five years. That’s two-thirds of the way to a 5-per-cent down payment on a $600,000 Toronto house.

What does Mr. Fleming, the real estate agent, think about renting a condo? “As a Realtor, I’m supposed to sell people real estate, not rentals. But I don’t think it’s a bad move.”

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