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Spending on renovations outpaces new home construction

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web-reno-1009More money was spent renovating homes in Canada than building new ones during the 12 months to the end of June, according to data compiled by the Bank of Montreal.

“In the four quarters through [the second quarter], renovation activity outpaced investment in new residential construction $48.4-billion to $46.3-billion, as the latter has rolled over recently,” BMO economist Robert Kavcic pointed out in a recent research note. “Indeed, while new construction spending was down in recent quarters, renovation spending accelerated to a 6.9 per cent year-over-year clip in Q2.”

That fits recent findings from Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce economist Benjamin Tal. He noticed that prices of higher-priced homes are rising faster than prices of lower-priced homes in cities such as Toronto, Ottawa, Calgary and Edmonton. That’s making it harder for homeowners to trade up to a bigger or better home. “Regardless of what your starting point is, and by how much your property has appreciated, the desired move up target is getting further and further out of reach,” Mr. Tal wrote in a research note last month.

So homeowners are increasingly choosing to renovate. “Over the past five years, spending on home renovations as a share of total residential investment averaged close to 46 per cent – by far the largest share on record,” Mr. Tal wrote.

The increasing inability to trade up is not the only factor that economists foresee weighing on the number of homes changing hands. “An aging population – the proportion of Canadians aged 65 and over is expected to climb from 15 per cent in 2013 to 23 per cent by 2030 – will reduce housing turnover, and the volume of listings and sales transactions,” Bank of Nova Scotia economist Adrienne Warren wrote in a research note Thursday. “The likelihood of moving in any given year declines progressively with age. Between 2006 and 2011, only 11 per cent of homeowners aged 65 and over changed residences, compared with 34 per cent of all other homeowners.”

With a larger elderly population staying put in their homes, and a rising proportion of homeowners unable to trade up, demand for renovation work could stay strong.

Ms. Warren estimates that annual growth in the number of Canadian households should remain relatively high around 180,000 to the end of the decade, before gradually declining to around 150,000 by 2030.

“By 2020, the bulk of the relatively large baby echo generation will have formed independent households, while the share of the population 75 and over begins to climb more rapidly,” she wrote. “This level of household formation is consistent with a sustainable annual pace of housing starts, including replacement demand, of around 155,000 in 2030, down from around 185,000 today.”

But Ms. Warren added that even with the slowdown in household formation, Canada’s total housing stock (both rental units and those for owner-occupiers) will have to expand by more than 2.5 million units between now and 2030 to meet the needs of the population.

So, while renovations will likely remain strong, new home construction will still be a force in the economy.

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We’re paying off mortgages faster than thought

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Retire-HouseTORONTO – A new report suggests that Canadian homeowners are paying down their mortgages faster than they’re being given credit for.

CIBC deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal says homeowners are taking advantage of record-low interest rates to accelerate their mortgage payments, and shorten their amortization periods.

The CIBC World Markets study says that homeowners are paying an additional $11 billion a year in principal that isn’t being officially recognized by the Bank of Canada.

It suggests that an estimated 30 to 40 per cent of households with mortgages are accelerating their payments. While 40 to 50 per cent of borrowers are estimated to have amortization periods of less than 20 years, rather than the standard 25 years.

Tal says that means the debt-service ratio in the Canadian mortgage market — what it costs to carry a mortgage as a share of disposable income — is 7.3 per cent, one point higher than the 6.3 per cent officially used in calculations by the Bank of Canada.

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Tal adds that this makes the Canadian housing market much more stable than previously thought, if interest rates were to rise.

“Canadian households did not only resist the temptation of low rates, they used those low rates to pay down debt at a pace not seen before,” he said.

“Despite a lethargic labour market and an unemployment rate that is still too high for the Bank of Canada’s liking, debt service performance in Canada has almost never been better.”

Scotiabank’s Porter Calls Canada Bubble Fears Overblown – Ask a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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99345955Canadian concerns about a housing bubble are overblown in a country where credit growth is modest and the job market is stable, says Bank of Nova Scotia Chief Executive Officer Brian Porter.

“Bubble is perhaps the most overused word since the global financial crisis,” Porter said in an interview yesterday in Washington, referring to Canada’s housing market. “We are very comfortable in terms of our exposure, we think we have monitored it well, and we stress test that.”

Domestic mortgages worth about C$200 billion ($179 billion) are the biggest part of the Toronto-based lender’s balance sheet, Porter said, and the value of those assets can withstand even major jumps in unemployment or interest rates. Gains in housing in Toronto, a focus of concern among regulators after a surge in prices and condominium construction, are backed by population growth, he said.

“Canadian consumers have generally a very conservative attitude towards debt, and their household balance sheet including other assets is in very good shape,” Porter said.

Canada’s ratio of household debt to disposable income rose to 163.6 percent between April and June, close to the record 164.1 percent in the third quarter of last year, Statistics Canada said Sept. 12. The drop in the average five-year fixed mortgage rate to the lowest in decades at 4.8 percent this year has fueled unexpected gains in home prices and resales, which reached the highest in more than four years in August.

Consumer credit growth is close to the rate of inflation, between 2 percent and 2.5 percent, Porter said. Last week, Canada reported the jobless rate fell to the lowest in almost six years in September on the largest monthly increase in employment since May 2013.

Biggest Risk

The biggest risk for Canada is losing out on global demand for its commodities by failing to build a network of export pipelines, Porter said.

“The Canadian economy has to graduate from what has been a housing-development led recovery coming out of the global financial crisis, and there has to be spending in the real economy,” he said.

He cited delays in building liquefied natural gas terminals on the west coast.

“Canada basically produces what the world wants, whether it’s grains, potash, uranium, oil and gas,” Porter said. “But the consumers of these have choices, whether it’s the Japanese, the Koreans, the Chinese, so Canadians shouldn’t be too complacent here and capital doesn’t like uncertainty.”

“The consequences are significant, economically and otherwise,” he said.

Latin Focus

Scotiabank, Canada’s third-biggest lender by assets, will keep its focus on Latin American markets such as Chile, Mexico, Peru and Colombia. Governments are seeking to finance new infrastructure projects and grow the middle class, Porter said.

“As the middle class expands, they consume and we are there for them to provide the auto loan, the mortgage, the wealth management products,” he said. Infrastructure projects in the region “it will continue to be a big favorable business for us.”

Faster U.S. growth will also boost economies across the hemisphere, Porter said, meaning things may turn out better than the “new mediocre” scenario laid out this week by the International Monetary Fund. “Things aren’t quite as bleak as the headlines would make them out,” he said.

Scotiabank has money for new acquisitions even after it made about 20 transactions through the global financial crisis, if the price is right, Porter said.

“We are disciplined, we aren’t in a hurry to do anything, so we will see how things shake out,” he said. “We are investing in our business, we are growing our business organically too, and we think that’s very important.”

Consumer Banking

For consumers, Scotiabank will keep expanding its mobile banking services and keep more traditional bank branches that customers value for discussing first mortgages and wealth management advice, he said.

“Branches are going to continue to be important, so you have to offer all the products,” he said.

Porter said there may be one traditional product that fades out over time: the paper check. Asked if they will disappear at some point, he said, “I think so for sure.”

“But people talk about cash disappearing too, I think cash grew at 4 percent in Canada last year, so these things will be with us for a while longer,” he said.

“Checks are a bit of a buggy whip business.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Greg Quinn in Washington at gquinn1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Badertscher atpbadertscher@bloomberg.net Gail DeGeorge

Canadians’ debt payoffs rise as mortgage principal payments targeted

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canadian-debtContrary to all the hype about consumer debt levels, Canadians are actually paying off their debts at a faster rate than the Bank of Canada estimates, says Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce economist Benjamin Tal.

Indeed, he says consumers are being quite responsible in the face of extremely tempting low interest rates. True, they are still spending a lot, but they’re using less credit than normal.

A prime example is homes. There has been a decoupling since the financial crisis between housing sales and mortgage activity, Mr. Tal found. Unit sales have kept up, but growth in mortgage credit hasn’t.

“Unit sales are still running at a pace of between 35,000 and 40,000 per month,” Mr. Tal writes in a research note released Wednesday. “But if in the past this level of activity required a double-digit rise in mortgages outstanding, today it is supported by less than half that pace.”

Part of the reason for this is that people are increasingly paying back principal. “Taking advantage of low rates, an estimated 30 per cent to 40 per cent of households with mortgages now accelerate payments in a way that de-facto shortens their amortization,” Mr. Tal writes. Between 40 to 50 per cent of borrowers are estimated to face an amortization period of less than 20 years “and it shows,” he adds. “Over the past year principal payments rose four times faster than new mortgages. Today, for every mortgage dollar taken, a record high 90 cents of principal are being paid back.”

The amortization period is important. The Bank of Canada bases its estimate of the mortgage debt service ratio on the assumption that the average amortization period is 25 years. Mr. Tal suggests that in the current environment the average is probably closer to 20 years. If he’s right, that means that Canadian households are making $11-billion more in principal payments per year than the bank’s official estimate.

That could mean that we don’t have to worry quite as much as we have been about the impact of rising interest rates.

“That extra cushion is sufficient to absorb the first 100-basis-point increase in the effective mortgage rate, with households simply re-amortizing to offset the payment increase,” Mr. Tal says.

That certainly doesn’t mean we shouldn’t worry at all, as some people are still vulnerable. And, Mr. Tal notes, there’s still time for the risks to rise between now and a rate hike.

“So far, it appears that not only have many households resisted the temptation of low rates but, in fact, they used those rates to pay down debt at a rate not seen before. But it is not over yet. The Bank of Canada is determined to keep low rates for as long as possible – further testing the willpower of Canadians,” he concludes.

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Canadian home sales fall for first time in nine months

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housesale_npOTTAWA — Sales of existing homes cooled in September as they fell 1.4% on a month-over-month basis, the first monthly decline since January, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Wednesday.

The association said sales through its Multiple Listings Service were down in about 60% of all local housing markets last month.

CREA president Beth Crosbie said affordably priced single family homes are in short supply in some of the hottest markets and that contributed to the monthly decline.

“That said, there are other markets with ample supply, but sellers there are holding firm on price,” Crosbie said in a statement.

“There is a lot of variation in housing market trends depending on the type of housing, neighbourhood and price segment.”

Compared with a year ago, sales were up 10.6%. However CREA said September 2013 had five Sundays, considered to be the slowest day for home sales.

The average price for a home sold last month was $408,795, up 5.9% compared with a year ago.

Excluding the Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto markets, the average price was $325,406, up 4.5% from September 2013.

The aggregate composite MLS Home Price Index was up 5.28% compared with a year ago.

BMO Capital Markets senior economist Robert Kavcic noted that there were large regional differences in house prices with Vancouver, Toronto and Calgary posting strong gains.

“Conditions get decidedly weaker anywhere east of Toronto, with no city reporting average prices up more than 3% year-over-year, and fully half below year-ago levels,” Kavcic wrote in a report.

“The good news is that the wide disparities in Canada’s housing market largely reflect economic, demographic and supply/demand fundamentals at work, all but eliminating any fears of a widespread ’bubble.”’

The number of newly listed homes fell by 1.6% in September compared with August.

CREA said the national sales-to-new listings ratio was 55.7% in September compared with 55.6% in August and within the 40 to 60% range usually described as a balanced market.

The association noted that just over half of all local markets posted a sales-to-new listings ratio in the balanced range.

There were 5.9 months of inventory nationally at the end of September 2014, up slightly from 5.8 months in August.

TD Bank senior economist Randall Bartlett said the lack of listings on the market continued to be a surprise.

“This suggests that home price growth may have more upside room over the next few months,” Bartlett said in a report.

“While the housing market continues to defy expectations in 2014, we still remain of the view that housing activity will eventually cool from current levels. With home prices continuing to rise above incomes, affordability will become an obstacle to housing demand once interest rates do eventually begin to rise.”

Meanwhile, the Teranet—National Bank national composite house price index posted a monthly increase of 0.3% for September.

The increase came as prices rose in six of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed including gains in Calgary, Vancouver, Toronto, Halifax, Winnipeg and Quebec City.

Prices were flat in Edmonton and down from the month before in Hamilton, Montreal, Ottawa-Gatineau and Victoria.

Could targeted land transfer taxes cool Canada’s hottest markets?

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webtorontohomesaleOntario’s real estate association has launched an ad campaign to explain why they believe land transfer taxes hurt the economy. But in a hot housing market, could the tax be used to cool particular regions, such as Toronto and Vancouver?

Officials in Ottawa have made it clear they see no need to cool the market right now. Prime Minister Stephen Harper said Wednesday that he doesn’t anticipate a housing crisis in Canada, although he says a small percentage of Canadians are overextended and vulnerable to rate hikes.

But federal officials are exploring their options in case they change their minds. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. chief executive officer Evan Siddall noted Friday that CMHC has been evaluating further rule changes that it could recommend if house price growth remains strong or picks up.

Former Finance Minister Jim Flaherty tightened the rules that determine which mortgages are eligible for insurance four times, beginning in 2008, in an effort to ease the market. He also took a number of other steps, along with both the banking regulator and CMHC, to achieve that goal.

There are still a wide range of things Ottawa could do, including raising minimum down payments. But one thing has increasingly become clear: The federal government has been using measures that affect Canadians from coast to coast in the same way, but the degree of overvaluation in local housing markets varies tremendously. Price gains in Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver are eclipsing those in much of the country, and some markets are downright sluggish. Could municipalities take the lead, with measures that are tailored to their markets?

Enter the land transfer tax. No one is advocating this as the solution to inflated prices, but the idea of finding policies that zero in on the actual problem markets is worth a discussion.

A number of provinces and cities in Canada already have land transfer taxes, which are paid by real estate buyers. Toronto’s land transfer tax is progressive in that it varies with the value of the property (0.5 per cent on the first $55,000, 1 per cent from $55,000 to $400,000 and 2 per cent over that). The Ontario Real Estate Association says that it amounts to about $4,000 for the average home.

The Ontario Real Estate Association has launched its campaign about the negative impacts of the tax because municipal elections are in about a month.

“Municipalities across Ontario are looking to the province for new revenue tools or taxes,” the association’s president, Costa Poulopoulos, said in a press release. “One of the tools being considered is a second [i.e., municipal, in addition to the provincial tax] land transfer tax on home buyers, similar to the tax imposed by the City of Toronto. This tax carries a huge cost – no Ontario city can afford the kind of job losses Toronto has experienced because of the municipal land transfer tax.”

The association points to a research study done by Altus Group, a real estate consultancy, that argues that Toronto’s land transfer tax, which has been in effect since 2008, has significantly slowed down home sales. It estimates that 38,278 resales didn’t take place between 2008 and 2013 because of the tax. A report by the C.D. Howe Institute has estimated that the tax reduced real estate transactions by about 16 per cent. The city of Toronto imposed the tax purely to raise money – but it sounds like something that would have made that late Mr. Flaherty pretty happy.

“Depending on the size and structure of the tax levied, the LTT would lead to weakening in affordability and cool the housing market,” says Derek Burleton, deputy chief economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank. He added that a challenge for policy makers would be putting in place a tax that cools the market without tipping it toward a dramatic decline. For instance, if Toronto changed its land transfer tax or other cities imposed one at the same time as mortgage rates were rising, it could cause a major correction.

What if the tax were temporary, and would automatically be repealed when mortgage rates hit a certain level?

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce economist Benjamin Tal, while noting that he’s neither in favour nor against the idea, says such a tax could soften the impact of any future market correction by making the market more static. “And this is a more targeted way of looking at things,” he says.

The C.D. Howe Institute found that Toronto’s land transfer tax slowed down the lower-priced portion of the market more than the higher end (presumably because people at the lower end of the market are more sensitive to the added cost of the tax). But land transfer taxes could be applied to only a range of the market, for example homes that sell for more than $600,000.

Mr. Burleton notes that “over the longer term, there are concerns that a LTT would reduce mobility of people, which would have a negative unintended consequence on job markets and economic growth.”

Municipalities in Ontario, and generally elsewhere, require provincial permission to levy a land transfer tax, notes Finn Poschmann, vice-president of research at the C.D. Howe Institute.

He also points out that the tax reduces the affordability of homes, making it harder for potential movers to buy a home that they might have otherwise, so it drives down the after-tax price of a home, other things being equal.

“The LTT is a remarkably bad tax,” Mr. Poschmann says. “It keeps people where they are, as opposed to where they want to be, and blocks transactions that should have occurred – by definition, a nasty drag on the economy. And that makes it not a very good tool for dealing with a problem that you don’t and can’t know if you have.”

 

 

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What to do when there’s more value in your house than your marriage

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He’s a one-percenter. He’s got the high-powered job, a vacation property and a $1.5-million detached home in the heart of midtown Toronto. About a decade ago, he and his wife were fortunate enough to get their foimageot into the housing market when it was still relatively sane — paying roughly half what the place is worth today.

Getting a divorce? Four things to consider before selling your real estate

Timing can be everything: Waiting a few months could result in thousands of dollars in savings. Fees can be reduced if you can control when you have to sell. And, ultimately, if you’re selling on your own terms — rather than in a rush — you are more likely to yield a better price. Now the marriage is over. And Jason — who asked that his real name not be used — is out of the house and stuck, like every other new buyer, chasing after a housing market that just won’t stop. Even with a hefty monthly paycheque, he figures he’ll have to sell his vacation property just to afford a big enough semi-detached house for when his kids come to stay.

He’s still not sure exactly what went wrong in his marriage, but can’t help wondering whether money — and the hefty value of the home equity he and his wife found themselves sitting on — played some role in the breakup.

“Sometimes you’ve got one person who might be looking at the financial situation — especially when [that] person has initiated the process,” says Jason.

“I can’t tell you whether it was part of her thinking,” he says of his estranged wife. “But I know she got a head start thinking about this.”

Now you’ve got to support two households from this asset Marriages, of course, get into trouble for all kinds of reasons, and rarely are they simple ones, but divorce lawyers and those in the real estate industry say that — whether we like to admit it or not — it’s an unavoidable reality that Canada’s red-hot real estate market is adding a thorny new dimension to marital strife. When a couple hits hard times, it’s awfully tough for either of them to ignore that other factor in their domestic arrangement — the value of their home.

The average household in Vancouver, Toronto and Calgary owned $533,172 in real estate at the end 2013, according to Environics Analytics. That wealth is mostly due to the relentless rise in house prices, which have climbed 156% nationally in the past 15 years and 430% over the past 30 years.

For couples who bought in long before the bubbling began — especially those Boomer couples who got in decades ago — all that home-equity wealth has created an escape hatch to get out and start a new life with a pile of cash. Yet, for others with still just a dent in their equity, splitting means getting tossed headfirst back into the unforgiving world of bidding wars and runaway prices. In some cases, the hard truths of urban real estate has them opting instead to stick it out in a flailing marriage, or trying to co-exist under the same roof long after divorce.

Whatever the outcome, the effect is the same: in 2014, the other man or woman in an unhappy couple’s relationship is often a real estate agent.

Related Nobody blows bubbles like these real estate writers Toronto homes sales now on pace for potential record in 2014 Finance Minister Joe Oliver says Calgary, Toronto and Vancouver distorting housing numbers “When couples are trying to work out whether one or the other will keep the house and one has to buy the other out, they’re very in tune with the fact that we’re in a hot market,” says Marion Korn, a lawyer and a family mediator with Toronto’s Mutual Solutions, a consultancy that helps couples through their divorce decision-making.

Blistering housing prices have created a mini-industry of people helping couples navigate a very complex financial situation where the next step can be crucial in determining how they’ll be living after the divorce.

When couples make the decision to end things, they generally want to physically separate as soon as possible, says Toronto divorce coach Deborah Moskovitch.

“But that’s a huge concern because often the house is the most valuable asset,” she says. “Now you’ve got to support two households from this asset. Oftentimes you have the wife who wants to keep the house because, if they’ve got kids, they want to maintain continuity and consistency for kids. It makes it really tight on the budget. That’s huge. Sometimes you have to sell.”

Ms. Moskovitch has some advice about rushing in to buy or sell. “I have a client who went out and bought a house before her separation agreement was concluded and she found herself in a financial mess. She bought a house that was beyond her financial means,” she says. “You don’t want to buy another house or a condo or whatever until you sell your home because you don’t know what your separation agreement’s going to look like.”

Patricia Hebert, an Edmonton-based lawyer and the current chair of the family law section of the Canadian Bar Association, has been practicing for 20 years and says the real change is not that people are getting divorced more, it’s the way they handle divorce and living arrangements.

“We see people still living together who don’t even have kids because they can’t afford to sell [and each find similar property],” says the lawyer. “When they do sell, it usually means they become renters because they can’t afford to buy a home on their own.”

Tyler Anderson/National PostBlistering housing prices have created a mini-industry of people helping couples navigate a very complex financial situation where the next step can be crucial in determining how they’ll be living after the divorce. On a practical level, sharing means “lots of people moving to the basement,” says Ms. Hebert. But she has seen more elaborate arrangements where people live “like roommates” with their own bedrooms.

“It becomes a more business-like relationship, the business of parenting,” she says, adding there is a growing body of people in her profession setting up long-term legal arrangements and finances for these people. “Sometimes you’ll see a duplex where there is a door in the middle.”

It doesn’t always work. Problems arise when people start dating again. “The repartnering is what triggers the discussion about making a shift,” says Ms. Hebert.

Then there are the older Canadians, free of the burden of children and now with a home that has more than quadrupled in value. It may be a coincidence or not, but they not only have the most equity to cash out and live the life they want, they’re also splitting up at a greater rate than their adult kids.

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Family Finance: Single 72-year-old woman loves skiing and travelling and hopes to keep it up until her eighties, if her finances can keep up with her The greatest jump in the divorce rate has occurred among people married 30 to 35 years — so-called “grey divorce” — says Nora Spinks, chief executive of the Ottawa-based Vanier Institute of the Family.

These are the same people who, on average, purchased their homes for $67,024 in 1980 and were able to sell them for $382,576 in 2013, based on national averages.

“The rate started going up when the Boomers turned 60,” says Ms. Spinks, noting the trend started happening just when the real estate market took off. “We can’t say for sure they are tied together. But life expectancy is now close to 90, so people start looking at themselves and looking at their equity and saying ‘cash out, split apart and spend the last 30 years with someone else.’”

For younger generations without that luxury, the alternative is a new type of relationship that’s recently become common enough it’s been labelled “living together, apart” — that is, co-habitating in the same house for the sake of the kids and maintaining a certain standard of living.

“It may be financially driven, it may be because they are looking after children, but it’s new,” says Ms. Spinks, noting that the alternative for couples without a pile of home value is often squeezing themselves, and their kids, into a pair of condos. “The more expensive housing is the more likely it is that people will remain in these convoluted housing arrangements.”

When Cate Cochran and her husband Joe Sherman divorced, they spent 13 months figuring out a living arrangement that would work for their family and their pocketbook.

Eventually, their agent found the solution: an old 1920s, west-end Toronto home already split into four apartments. Ms. Cochran took the main floor, her husband the second. They rented out the basement and third-floor units to help with the mortgage.

I’d say 10 years ago when prices weren’t where they are now, people would hold on “It was so much cheaper and easier on the kids,” Ms. Cochran says now, nearly 10 years later. They communicated via intercom. She’d have her ex’s new girlfriend down for coffee on mornings he’d sleep in.

Ms. Cochran, who wrote a book about the experience and those of others called Reconcilable Differences, still lives in the home, though her mother bought out her ex, who has since remarried and moved away now that their children are grown.

“I looked around before we came to our set-up — it was going to be a real step down in terms of our standard of living,” Ms. Cochran says.

Toronto realtor David Batori, among the top 10 agents in the country in terms of dollar volume, says divorced couples now make up about 20% of his transactions.

“I’d say 10 years ago when prices weren’t where they are now, people would hold on,” says Mr. Batori, adding homeowners with little or no equity and heavy debt were almost forced to sit tight when the market was in the doldrums and nothing was selling.

Now they can go a couple of different routes. They can take out their equity and both move to smaller places or cheaper neighbourhoods, or try the living-together-but-apart option.

He knows one couple, living together but divorced, continuing to pay down their mortgage for the past two years because neither can afford to buy the other out and nobody wants to move. “It’s a hard situation to be in, but what choice is there?” says the realtor. “I have a lot of clients where one person just moves out and helps continue to pay for the house.”

GETTY IMAGES/THINKSTOCKToronto realtor David Batori, among the top 10 agents in the country in terms of dollar volume, says divorced couples now make up about 20% of his transactions. Marina Adshade, a sessional lecturer at the University of British Columbia and the author of Dollars and Sex, a book on how economics influences relationships, says the U.S. experience when prices dropped 30% between April 2006 and August 2010, illustrated that people will stay together during a financial crisis.

She can’t say for sure what happens when prices rise, because there is no specific data available, but she suspects the opposite is true — that people are more likely to get divorced. But she doesn’t rule out the possibility there could be two effects happening at the same time, pulling in opposite directions.

“Increasing house prices increase the likelihood that some people divorce. For example, people who want to take their equity out of their marital home. And it might also decrease the likelihood that some people divorce. For example, people with small children with specific housing needs,” says Ms. Adshade. “So what looks like no effect is really just two effects cancelling each other out. I see this quite frequently when it comes to divorce and marriage statistics.”

Andrew Feldstein, who has practised family law in Toronto for 20 years, says you can’t ignore the practical effects of divorce and real estate prices.

Increasing house prices increase the likelihood that some people divorce “If you live in the city, you may be living in a 2,500-square-foot house that may cost you $1.5-million and you may have a $700,000 mortgage. When that couple divorces, there is nowhere for them to downsize after they take their share of the home,” says Mr. Feldstein.

And then there’s all the value immediately lost to real estate transaction costs. Agent commissions, land transfer taxes, legal fees and moving costs can easily eat up 8% to 10% of your equity by the time each party finds a new home.

“I have lots of people tell me, when they hear the numbers of what [selling] will cost them, ‘why am I doing this?’” says Mr. Feldstein.

On top of that, he says people divorcing under the gun often end up agreeing to a lousy price because they are in hurry to sell. In some cases, buyers become aware of that situation and can take advantage of it to drive a better price, especially in a slow market.

“You go to a home and notice in the master bedroom there is only a man’s clothes or woman’s clothes, that’s a tale sign a divorce is going on. If they are litigating the matter, it’s a public document. You can look at their financial statement and see how big their mortgage is and what other debt is accumulated, what their income is and how badly they need to sell the home,” he says, adding he’s done that type of research before buying his own homes.

The financial leverage on homes means couples have to be more financially strategic than ever when it comes to timing their divorce, says Darren Gingras, president of The Common Sense Divorce, a divorce consultancy firm.

“Whether or not you want to keep it amicable or not amicable, that’s your decision,” he says. But financially, “you’ve got to time when you’re going to leave” with care. “Even if [you] walked home and caught somebody in bed with somebody, if you don’t time this one, you’re going to be nailed with up to $100,000 in penalties. There are people now who’ve had to learn to suck it up.”

And yet, far from catching a spouse in a compromising situation, the biggest irony of the new divorce and real estate reality is that it’s sometimes finances — including having a huge mortgage — that contribute to many break-ups in the first place. Debt is near an all-time high with the average Canadian household debt at 163.1% of annual disposable income.

“I think people definitely stay together because of debt, they cannot afford to separate,” says Laurie Campbell, chief executive of Credit Canada Debt Solutions. “On the flip side, debt causes a lot of marital stress.”

As for Jason, he’s trying to take the emotion out of his marital situation, think about it financially and accept the reality of today’s housing market.

“It’s going to be painful. I’m lucky enough, fortunate enough to able to afford [another home]. I’m not uber wealthy. There’s a big difference between 99.01% and 99.9%. Poorer is not the right word but I will have less.”

While Toronto’s housing boom rolls on, some of the housing itself is falling apart

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TORONTO — Toronto has more than 100,000 units under construction as developers and investors seek to cash in on condo prices that are up 25.7% in the city over the past five years. The trouble is, many buildings are so poorly constructed that some residents fear that the money-spinners of today could become the slums of the future.

Glass panels have been falling off newly built Toronto condos, including the luxury Shangri-La and Trump towers and a dozen or more lesser-known buildings across the city. New buildings suffer from water leaks and poor insulationimage, making them ill-suited to Canadian weather.

“Many buildings that went up during the beginning of this condo boom are already facing high repair costs, and in many cases lawsuits, because they are built so shabbily,” said Ted Kesik, a professor of building science at the University of Toronto.

In 50 years these buildings may well become an urban slum “The life cycle is clear. They are okay for the first five years, they gradually deteriorate by year 10 … and don’t even reach year 20 before significant remedial work needs to be done. In 50 years these buildings may well become an urban slum.”

That’s all far in the future for builders and investors who have had little trouble finding tenants, with the city’s rental vacancy rate at 1.8%. Condo prices are rising across the country, up 16.8% in the last five years, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Real estate brokers are dealing mostly with 10-year investors who want to buy from a blueprint, double their equity during the five years of construction, and enjoy rental income and price appreciation for five more years before selling and investing again elsewhere.

“It’s all about timing. We advise most clients to get out before that five-year mark,” said Roy Bhandari of Sage Real Estate, which notched nearly C$50 million in Toronto condo sales in 2013, with clients typically from China, Eastern Europe, or the Middle East. “It’s the magic number because after five years the warranties are expired.”

Related Canada’s new housing prices show biggest gains in 7 months, led by Toronto and Calgary Kingston and environs a burgeoning market for first-timers and downsizers The spate of falling glass sheets prompted the Ontario government to improve the building code in 2012 to stipulate that better glass be used for balconies, but the problem continues. In July, balcony glass panels fell off the 65-storey Shangri-La hotel and condominium building in Toronto’s downtown core for the fifth time.

Before you sound the debt alarm, know how much is too much

Canadians have increasingly become more comfortable with debt. Despite the Bank of Canada repeatedly sounding the alarm about household debt levels, calling it the biggest domestic risk facing the Canadian economy, we continue to take on more. But how much debt is too much? Keep reading. Canada’s reputation as a safe haven from global financial storms has driven condo development in Toronto and Vancouver since 2009, attracting investors at home and abroad spooked by stocks, bonds, and foreign banks at risk of failure.

“The first reason they chose Canada is the banking system. It’s the most boring banking system on the planet, but it makes it the safest,” said Bhandari.

Less important are the finer points of the condos, with investors primarily focused on value, location, and amenities.

“Investors never see the suite. They buy it and sell it, and they are not flying in to micro-manage the investment,” Bhandari said.

While there are no numbers on how many of Canada’s condos are being bought by foreign investors, estimates range from 5% to 50%. The Shangri-La in Toronto is part of a chain owned and managed by Hong Kong-based Shangri-La Hotels and Resorts, one of the world’s leading hotel companies.

“It’s almost like the dot-com bubble, in that you have to see it coming and sell, because if not, you’ll get burned,” said building scientist Kesik.

Renters and some real estate agents blame weak provincial regulations for problems with poorly built condominiums.

The Building Code is a joke, the Condominium Act is a joke “The Building Code is a joke, the Condominium Act is a joke,” said David Fleming, a condo buyer turned realtor. “The City of Toronto relies on the permits, the fees for its tax base, and construction and condos are what is carrying the city. You do not kill the goose that lays the golden egg.”

Fleming bought a pre-construction condo in 2005 that was scheduled to be finished in 2007. When he finally got his unit’s keys in 2010, the rest of the building was still under construction, and he saw defects everywhere. He sold his unit within two years.

The Ontario building code, a provincial responsibility, is reviewed every five years, said Conrad Spezowka, a spokesman for Ontario’s Municipal Affairs and Housing ministry. He noted it was most recently amended in June 2012 to address the failing glass problem.

“While the province is responsible for administering the Ontario Building Code, municipalities are responsible for enforcement and inspecting construction and renovation to ensure it complies with the code,” Spezowka said in an e-mail.

In January, a report from Toronto’s Auditor General found enforcement of the building code was lax and in need of a top-to-bottom review. Two-thirds of open building permits across Toronto had no inspection for over a year. Of the 3,735 reported code violations in 2012, only 30% had been inspected, and more violations were issued than closed each year.

Toronto’s building office did not respond to requests for comments for this story.

Tom Hicken for National PostTORONTO, Ont. (10/09/2013) – Glass and blood is seen at the site where a glass panel fell from the Shangri-La Hotel and struck a man at street level on University Avenue and Adelaide Street on Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2013. Most condo owners are reluctant to make a fuss about poorly built condominiums for fear of lowering asset values as they try to offload the unit. Nonetheless, lawyer Ted Charney in September launched his sixth class-action lawsuit against a major Toronto developer, a C$29 million suit over wildly fluctuating water temperatures in a condo high-rise that are being blamed on the installation of improper water valves.

“Our building code is woefully deficient,” said Audrey Loeb, a real estate lawyer dubbed “the Condo Queen” for her focus on condominium owners who were promised one thing when they were buying and got much less when they moved in. “The municipal and provincial governments have not imposed high enough obligations on developers.”

Developers said there are plenty of checks and balances, and that mistakes are corrected quickly.

“There’s a lot of moving parts. It’s not like there is a mistake because we’re trying to provide cheap product. It is the opposite. Everyone is always trying to better themselves,” said Barry Fenton, president and chief executive of Lanterra Developments, which is among those being sued for falling glass at one of its new condo towers.

“The systems that we have in place have worked, they are healthy. There is no question if building inspectors or policies suggest we should make changes, we’re here to listen and make the changes. Change is good.”

© Thomson Reuters 2014

The newly rich: How your world changes when downsizing creates a windfall

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You may never have imagined yourself sitting on a financial windfall and wondering what to do with it but many older Canadians who have lived through the housing market’s finest hours are facing just that.

If the investment in your family home has paid off handsomely over your lifetime, there might come a time to lock in those gains. You could downsize and buy a cheaper home or condo — if you knew how long you might want to live in the property and if you don’t mind all the land transfer taxes and transaction costs.

Or you could give yourself the flexibility of renting an equally nice home or condo.

imageThe question is – what do you do with it, and what do you need to think about, when that big cheque comes from the real estate lawyer?

Related First-time homebuyers are feeling the weight of Canada’s housing boom How to teach your kids about money Here are five things to think about:

What is your new annual budget going to look like? You will have major savings on annual house upkeep and repairs and no more realty taxes. You will have major new expenses with your monthly rent. Will this end up costing you $40,000 more a year or only $10,000 more or is it closer to a break even scenario? In order to cover off annual spending, how much, if any, do you need to draw each year from your non-registered investments? The key is not to think about how much income does this need to spin off, but rather cash flow. This income focus is a mistake that many people make, and it sometimes leads to higher risk investments and almost always in much higher taxes. Based on your current situation, what is the chance of you outliving your money? What is your likely estate value and lifetime tax bill? These important questions may require help from a financial planner, but if you don’t already have a strong handle on this, now is the time to get it. Aside from peace of mind, having this knowledge will drive a number of decisions around your spending habits, investment strategy, gifting habits (to family or charity), tax planning and estate planning. Your tax bill is getting very big, and you need to figure out how to make it smaller. In addition to being forced to draw 7.59% of your RRIF value (based on age 73), you are now suddenly taxed on income and realized capital gains on investments. If you earn 5% income (half Canadian dividends and half interest or U.S. dividends) on this portfolio, that works out to $35,000 of Canadian dividends and $35,000 of fully taxed interest and U.S. dividends. You could be facing over $20,000 in taxes that you weren’t facing before plus you could lose $6,700 in annual Old Age Security (OAS) payments. This is a little less painful if you are able to fully split income with your spouse, but can be very expensive if you are single. The good news on the investment front is that you can structure the portfolio to generate much less income, cut your tax bill, and possibly even keep your full Old Age Security payment in the process. Among the tools to help accomplish this would be:

Start with an investment portfolio that has limited exposure to interest income and U.S. dividend income in the taxable investment account. This will lower the amount of income that faces the highest tax rate. If you are paying for investment advice, try and ensure that the investment fees are tax deductible. This will lower your overall cost and also lower your taxable income and can help with OAS recovery. Consider Corporate Class funds that have low yields and can defer capital gains – or other income limiting investments. Look at other tax sheltering ideas such as shifting some funds to tax sheltered insurance or using flow through shares with investment certainty (a locked-in loss) that is more than offset by government tax credits. Look at gifting strategies as part of the overall plan – both giving to family and to charity. How do you use your wealth to make the most of your remaining years? This is touched upon above, but it is really about sitting down and saying ‘what do I want to do now? What goals do I have for myself?’ Not just the bucket list idea, but what kind of values and relationships do I want to leave with my kids and grandkids and friends? Do I want to try to make a bigger difference in other people’s lives – either financially or through other things that I can do? When you suddenly have more liquid wealth at your disposal, it is a good time to take a step back and think about what it can allow you to do? While the selling of your family home can trigger this type of review, it can happen in other situations as well. Often it is at a time of inheritance or in some cases when a retiree chooses to take the value of their pension as a lump sum. It can even be the much rarer scenario of a lottery win.

At all of these times of positive financial change, it is important to think about how it could change your lifestyle, how your tax situation changes, what type of advice you might require, and how it might allow you to positively impact others. These situations may never come up in your life, but if it does, it is often a once in a lifetime opportunity. Plan wisely.

Ted Rechtshaffen is president and wealth advisor at TriDelta Financial, a boutique wealth management firm focusing on investment counselling and estate planning. tedr@tridelta.ca

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Fixer-uppers not for the faint-of-heart – Ask a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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houserenoWhen Eileen Muzzin and her partner, Dan Pedersen, were searching for a home in Vancouver, they knew they wouldn’t be buying a place with granite countertops or a peekaboo view. With a modest budget – by Vancouver standards – they ultimately decided on a fixer-upper on the city’s east side.

The couple got a 2,000-square-foot home with walls painted red and gold, a weak electrical system, various objects buried in the backyard and a kitchen that was last renovated in 1961.

“We were digging in our yard and found a rolled-up carpet two feet down,” Ms. Muzzin recalls. “There were really old bricks there too, which we ended up reusing between our garden beds.

“We basically bought the crappiest house in the neighbourhood we wanted to live in,” Ms. Muzzin says.

The two were smart to buy in a community they coveted. There’s truth behind the cliché “location, location, location.”

“You can fix a home but you can’t fix a neighbourhood,” says Vancouver real estate agent Kel Parry.

What the home also had was good bones. The trick to purchasing a fixer-upper without ending up with buyer’s remorse is distinguishing between a home that has “potential” and one that could turn out to be a disaster.

To do that, a home inspection is a must. But that’s just the starting point, says Mr. Parry, who himself bought a fixer-upper with his wife many years ago in North Vancouver.

Hire a contractor to give you estimates on fixing problems. “If you can, get two or three quotes. Once you start getting those numbers down, tack on another 30 per cent for contingency,” he says.

“The first thing I tell clients when they’re considering a fixer-upper is, whatever you’ve budgeted, make sure you have more than that,” he adds. “There are always hidden costs.”

Aside from using savings, credit cards or lines of credit for HGTV-style projects, buyers can secure financing at the time of purchase through mortgages such as the CMHC Improvement program or Genworth’s Purchase Plus Improvements program.

Fixer-uppers typically need expensive renovations of kitchens and washrooms. Other common and costly jobs include repairing or replacing the roof and windows as well as upgrading the electrical and plumbing systems.

Some repairs are deal-breakers, with structural and foundation problems typically falling in that category.

“If you’re looking at a property that will continue to cost you money in the long run, and will cost you a lot of money right out of the gate, you want to get a professional opinion on that,” Mr. Parry says, adding that it’s important to do a property-information search with the city or municipality. “Structural and foundation issues are big.”

An oil tank buried in the yard is another red flag, says Vancouver home inspector Tom Munro, founder of Munro Home Inspections.

“Oil tanks are the ultimate deal-breaker,” says Mr. Munro, who claims to be the only inspector in the Greater Vancouver area who scans for buried tanks using a magnetic sensor. “The tank needs to be disposed of properly. You need to get an oil-tank-removal certificate, and then you need an independent soil-sample analysis.”

Aside from the environmental impact, cleanup can be costly. One North Vancouver homeowner had to spend $85,000 on the removal of a tank and the ensuing decontamination of her property in 2012.

Mr. Munro has found other buried treasure during home inspections. He discovered a Volkswagen Beetle in one backyard where the swimming pool used to be. In the fixer-upper he bought himself recently, a previous owner had deposited all of the old appliances under a few feet of dirt.

Then there’s the accompanying stress of renovations. They can take a toll on relationships as well.

“If you anticipate a number of projects, you have to be prepared to live in that situation with dust, with tarps, with all the things that come with living in a construction zone,” Mr. Parry says. “It’s very disruptive, especially if you have young children. If you can get renos started before you move in or even stay with relatives or in a hotel for a short period, those are worth considering. Some people don’t mind it, but it’s not for everyone.”

Mr. Munro says with a laugh: “I’m a marriage counsellor as much as a home inspector.”

For Ms. Muzzin and her partner, living amid the mess has so far been worth it. They enjoy working on their home and going to salvage lots for unique finds.

They installed a beautiful claw-foot tub with polished chrome feet in the main bathroom they renovated themselves. They hired professionals to replace the roof and upgrade the electrical system. Next up is that 1961 kitchen, with its linoleum floors and teal-coloured everything.

“I love having my own home to work on,” Ms. Muzzin says. “But it’s not for the faint-hearted.”

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