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So you are bankrupt, does that mean you can’t buy a house? – Consult with a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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Vancouver Mortgage Broker | More from Garry Marr | @DustyWallet

Nobody will loan you money for a cup of coffee, let alone provide you with a mortgage on a house.

When will our hunger for debt abate?

Canadians’ collective debt mountain is now $1.422-trillion, and experts agree if we don’t slow down there will be trouble. Here are some tips for breaking the habit

Can you ever come back from that type of credit meltdown, one that even saw you declare bankruptcy? The answer is yes but it will take time.

“It may sound counter-intuitive but for some people filing a bankruptcy or a consumer proposal may be the quickest way [to home ownership],” says Andy Fisher, a trustee in bankruptcy with A. Farber & Partners Inc. “There are people who are carrying a lot of unsecured debt where it is difficult to carry that debt and save money to buy that house.”

Filing a consumer proposal or declaring bankruptcy allows a consumer to reduce those debts immediately and come up with some sort of payment plan.

“They owe $60,000 plus interest on unsecured lines of credit plus credit cards, etc. They do a consumer proposal for $21,000 without interest and the money they are saving would allow them to save more money to buy a house,” says Mr. Fisher.

There’s no question when it comes time to buy a house, your credit rating will be a key factor in whether a bank will loan you the money. A bankruptcy is not going to help with that. But lenders will also look at what your down payment is relative to the value of the house and what you are currently earning.

That person with loads of unsecured debt may have a better credit rating because they’ve managed to stay afloat but could be considered a bigger risk when it’s time to borrow for a house because their financial position is weaker.

Reestablishing that credit is a little trickier. One way to start is with a car loan. RRSPs loans also work well because banks are willing to lend the money out because they know where the investments are located.

Bankruptcies stay on record with the credit bureau for six years after they are discharged and Mr. Fisher says on average stay on your record for eight years, the extra two being the time to pay back the debt agreed to at proceedings.

“I’m not suggesting you go bankrupt to try and buy a house,” Mr. Fisher said, emphasizing consumers need to understand a bankruptcy won’t leave them shut out of home ownership forever.

Paul LeFevre, director of operations of Equifax Canada Inc., said coming up with the credit score is a trade secret but he can provide a little insight into what goes into it.

About 35% of the score is based on payment history and looks at late payments and severity of delinquencies. Another 30% of the score is utilization of your credit, basically how much of your credit have you used.

“You could go over your limit at the store and the payment will go through but that will have a significant impact on your score,” said Mr. LeFevre.

The next 15% is the length of your credit score history. The type of credit you have, including how many retail cards or credit cards you have, makes up another chunk of your credit score. Those cards can have a high impact because they come with higher risk than your car or home.

If you forget to make a couple of credit card payments after you declare bankruptcy, you have shot yourself in the foot with the majority of lenders

“You have to have your home and you need to get to your work [so you are more likely to pay those debts],” says Mr. LeFevre.

The final component is the history of background checks on your credit. People who seek credit a lot are considered higher risk and that can account for up to 10% of your score.

“Applying for a product won’t kill your score on its own” he says, adding the best advice he can give any consumer who currently can’t get a home mortgage is “pay every bill on time and pay down or eliminate all existing balances.”

Rob McLister, editor of Canadian Mortgage Trends, says people who have gone bankrupt are not a “tough sell” from the lender point of view, if they have fully established their credit.

“Generally the rule of thumb is they need a two-year track record of paying their bills on credit or car loans on time [after discharge],” said Mr. McLister, adding usually that means credit cards limits or loans outstanding worth $2,000 or more.

All this applies to prime lenders, the people you’ll need to hook up with to get those record-low interest rates on mortgages.

“You can still apply with a non-prime lender. There are people who will give you a loan the day after bankruptcy,” said Mr. McLister. “If you want the best rates and terms, you have to show them you have good credit.”

There are some lenders who will “up charge” or increase your interest rate until a bankruptcy falls completely off your credit report but they are generally second-tier lenders and not banks, says Mr. McLister.

You still need reasonable debt limits and a good job but the real issue after discharge is making sure you have a flawless record. No missed payments whatsoever on even the smallest debt.

“If you forget to make a couple of credit card payments after you declare bankruptcy, you have shot yourself in the foot with the majority of lenders,” said Mr. McLister. “You have to earn a lenders’ trust and by default the lender is not going to have the same trust with a post-bankrupt as opposed to a well-qualified customer.”

A second bankruptcy? That’s about as bad a credit risk as you can get. “You are going to be relegated to the world of non-prime lenders after that,” he says. “I’ve never had a double bankruptcy, I would just send them away.”

Illustration by Chloe Cushman, National Post

Home buyers squeezed out of market must save more – or settle for less – Consult with a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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DAVID ISRAELSON- Special to The Globe and Mail

Vancouver Mortgage Broker

Before the mortgage rules were tightened, some buyers were ill prepared for making such a big purchase, says Kristina Berg, mortgage consultant with Dreyer Group Mortgages in Surrey, B.C.
(Rafal Gerszak For The Globe and Mail)

When the Occupy movement hit the headlines in 2011, we heard about the 99 per cent, but when it comes to getting a mortgage there’s another group in Canada – the 9 per cent.

These are the nearly one in 10 prospective home buyers who as recently as two years ago qualified for mortgages but no longer do so. Rule changes have made it tougher for them to scrape together down payments, to get mortgage insurance and to arrange affordable payment terms.

What’s a buyer in the marginal category to do? It’s estimated that the typical 9 per center needs up to three and a half years longer to buy a home than before the rules were tightened, and the finish line keeps moving in popular centres where home prices are rising, such as Toronto or Vancouver.

“My question for young people [seeking a mortgage] is: If someone loses their job in your household, how are you going to get out of this? You find that all of a sudden you’re in a hamster cage,” says Kristina Berg, a mortgage consultant with Dreyer Group Mortgages in Surrey, B.C.

The federal government has tightened mortgage lending rules at least four times since 2008, to discourage buyers from taking on excessive debt that could lead to defaults, foreclosures and bankruptcies, as happened in the United States and other countries.

The tighter rules include regulators putting an end, in 2012, to zero-money-down mortgages, as well as shortening the maximum amortization period for a mortgage to 25 years, down from 30, making payments higher.

Purchasers can still put as little as 5 per cent down. But those who put down less than 20 per cent are required to buy insurance from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., which has just raised premiums. Also, the rules for obtaining home equity lines of credit and purchasing rental properties are tighter.

Despite the squeeze, wannabe purchasers have a few, limited options.

“The short answer is to look to the bank of mom and dad,” says Bill Johnston, manager and legal counsel with Bosley Real Estate Ltd. and director of the Canadian Real Estate Association. Indeed, with house prices nearing the stratosphere in major centres, young Canadians are turning more to parents and relatives to help put together a down payment.

The difficulty, of course, is that not everyone has relatives who can shell out money. For those who don’t, another option is to lower your expectations, says Trish Bongard Godfrey, a Toronto real estate agent.

“If people can’t afford houses they can look at condos. People are also buying farther from downtown,” she says. In Toronto, “I know everyone wants to live downtown, but they’re now looking in places like Hamilton and Markham. That’s why we need better rapid transit – we absolutely need to fix that.”

The 9 per centers who are first-time buyers can also borrow from their own registered retirement savings plan, says Ms. Berg. They can borrow up to $25,000 from their RRSPs – there is no tax penalty if they pay this back within 15 years from the time of their home purchase.

“If you only have 5 per cent to put down you can get an RRSP loan for the next 5 per cent and then borrow from your own RRSP,” Ms. Berg says. First, however, you should make sure that your financial institution doesn’t have a rule requiring you to keep the money in your RRSP for a minimum length of time, she warns.

Another option is to be creative about where you want to live, and how, Ms. Berg adds. Some young people are looking at co-ownership with other couples, for example – buying a house with separate living quarters and sharing the mortgage payments.

Others are looking at homes that include rental units. These do cost more, though, and as a landlord, you’re responsible for upkeep in your tenants’ quarters, too.

The wisest thing to do, says Ms. Berg, is to try to live within your means. The new rules are “a reality check,” she says.

“Pay off some debt. Don’t buy a car; lease or get a used one. Save a little more.”

Realtors say Canada’s housing market can still grow – Ask a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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Vancouver Mortgage BrokerHome sales and prices are expected to still grow over the next two years, albeit at a slower pace, says the national organization that represents realtors.

In Canada’s housing market here’s what $500 K buys: A lake in Edmonton … a condo in Toronto

From four bedrooms in Windsor to one-bedroom in Vancouver, check out how far $500,000 goes in 8 major markets across Canada. Read on

The Ottawa-based Canadian Real Estate Association says sales are forecast to reach 463,700 in 2014 which would represent a 1.3% increase from 2013. The national average home price is forecast to be $397,000 in 2014, a 3.8% increase from a year earlier.

CREA said a particularly tough winter and the fact consumers pushed purchases forward into the summer of 2013 to take advantage of low rate pre-approved mortgages may have contributed to sluggish sales to start off 2014.

But the group, which represents about 100 boards across the country, says the market should bounce back with mortgage rates heading down.

“I expect fixed mortgage rates will edge marginally higher in the second half of 2014 as evidence confirms an anticipated pick-up in economic growth,” said Gregory Klump, chief economist with CREA, in a statement. “Marginally higher mortgage rates are likely to counterbalance that lift provided by stronger economic and continuing job growth and restrain the momentum of sales activity.”

By 2015, sales are expected to reach 469,400 units which would be a 1.2% increase from a earlier. By 2015, the national average price is forecast to be $401,400 which would be another 1.1% increase.

Meanwhile, CREA also released results for February sales which were up 0.3% from a January. The increase ended five straight months of declines but sales are still off 9.3% from the peak.

“Sales in February rebounded in some of the smaller local markets where activity was impacted by harsh winter weather in January,” said Laura Leyser, president of CREA, in a release.

Actual not seasonally adjusted sales were up 1.9% in February from a year ago with most of the gain coming from increased sales in British Columbia’s lower mainland and to some extent Calgary.

The average home sold for $406,372 in February which was a 10.1% increase from a year ago. CREA emphasized the year-over-year gain was impacted by the lack of activity in some of the country’s most expensive markets in 2013, in particular Vancouver.
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Canadian first-time home buyers’ budget rises to $316,000, 6% more than last year – Consult with a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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TORONTO — A Bank of Montreal report on first-time home buyers says the average budget has increased to $316,100.

Vancouver Mortgage BrokerThat’s up nearly 6% from an average of $300,000 in last year’s report on first-time home buyers.

The BMO study says a sample of prospective buyers in Vancouver, Toronto and Calgary had even higher budgets for their first home.

About one-third (30%) of the 513 Canadians interviewed online for the study said they expected assistance from parents or family.

Nearly two-thirds (61%) said they have made cuts to their lifestyle to save for their first home.

Pollara conducted the online interviews for BMO between Jan. 24 and March 6.

The polling industry’s professional body, the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association, says online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error because they do not randomly sample the population.

Canada’s home prices jump most in 20 months – Ask a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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OTTAWA — Canadian housing prices rose by 0.3% in January, the biggest jump for 20 months, on strong gains in the western Prairie region, Statistics Canada said on Thursday.

housesales_np_pgThe increase — greater than the 0.1% advance forecast by market analysts — was the largest since the 0.3% gain seen in May 2012.

Prices in the metropolitan region of Calgary, the capital of Canada’s oil industry, jumped by 1.3% from December on higher material and labor costs as well as market conditions.

Elsewhere in the West, prices in Saskatoon rose by 1.4% while those in Winnipeg climbed by 0.5%.

The Canadian government, which has intervened in the mortgage market four times since 2008 to cool the sector, has long expressed concerns the housing market might overheat though it thinks a soft landing is more likely.

The new housing price index excludes condominiums, which the government says are a particular cause for concern.

The closely watched Toronto-Oshawa region, which accounts for 28.01% of the entire market, posted a 0.2% increase from December.

Overall, prices were up in five of the 21 metropolitan regions, down in nine and unchanged in seven. Prices rose 1.5% from January 2013, breaking a five-month spell of slowing year-on-year growth.

Canada’s national housing agency announced last month it would increase its mortgage loan insurance premiums from May 1 to shore up its capital and reduce taxpayers’ exposure to the housing market.

© Thomson Reuters 2014

Record home building in Canada drives spike in building permits – ask a Vancouver mortgage broker

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imageRecord Canadian housing construction led a faster-than-expected gain in building permits in January, government data showed one day after the central bank predicted a soft landing in the country’s real estate market.

North America’s top 20 housing markets: Vancouver, Toronto, Calgary among most expensive

Is Canada’s market overheated? Here’s a look at the prices in the top markets across North America. The results may surprise you

The value of residential building permits granted by municipalities jumped 26.3% to $4.60 billion ($4.18 billion), Statistics Canada said Thursday from Ottawa. One of the largest municipal gains was led by multiple-unit housing in Vancouver, a market that policy makers have said is most at risk from overbuilding.

The Bank of Canada affirmed its forecast for a housing market “soft landing” Wednesday with the ratio of household debt to income stabilizing around current record levels. Governor Stephen Poloz kept the benchmark overnight interest rate at 1%, citing balanced risks from stretched consumers and sluggish business spending.

Non-residential permits fell 14.6% to $2.39 billion in January, reducing the gain in total building permits to $6.99 billion, a rise of 8.5%. Economists forecast total permits would climb 1.7%, according to the median of the nine responses to a Bloomberg survey.

Vancouver building permits rose 30.5% in January to $627 million. It was one of the largest gains by city, along with Toronto and the Alberta capital of Edmonton, Statistics Canada said in its report.

Permits for multi-family housing projects such as apartments and condominiums jumped 42.8% to $2.10 billion, Statistics Canada said. Single-family housing permits rose 15.0% to $2.50 billion.

Housing Fall

Pacific Investment Management Co. forecasts Canadian home prices may fall as much as 20% in the next five years.

“Canadian housing is overvalued,” Ed Devlin, the London- based head of Pimco’s Canadian portfolio, said by telephone March 3. “I would expect to see it happening at the end of this year, we’re going to start to see housing roll over.”

Pimco has been reducing its holdings of Canadian debt after a run of strong profits, Devlin said. The housing decline will lead to a pullback in consumer spending, capping economic growth this year in Canada around 2%, he said.

Bloomberg.com

Say hello to your neighbour on top of you, below you and beside you – ask a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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imageTORONTO — The dream of an affordable single-family detached home is fading fast. Rising land values and development costs mean even those trying to avoid high-rises will be living in more densely populated housing.

North America’s top 20 housing markets: Vancouver, Toronto, Calgary among most expensive on continent

Whether the market is overheated remains to be seen, but you might be surprised by how many Canadian cities make the top 10.Keep reading.

It’s not something that is going to happen overnight, but evidence is mounting that ground-level housing is becoming tighter. To counter the costly state of home ownership, increasingly developers are looking to build more townhouses or townhomes and what is called mid-rise or stacked housing.

Doug Porter, chief economist with Bank of Montreal, says statistics from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. show an increase in the number of row houses, as a percentage of detached homes.

In the 1990s, you might have four or five single detached for every row house, now it’s more like three to one

“In the 1990s, you might have four or five single detached for every row house, now it’s more like three to one,” said Mr. Porter, adding that’s a Canada-wide figure.

It’s not like this is a completely new. Mr. Porter remembers buying his first house in the 1980s and it was a semi-detached home linked in the basement.

“The trend is just becoming even more obvious in recent years,” said Mr. Porter, agreeing a detached home is probably now out of the reach of many consumers.

Location always determines value, and small municipalities will probably continue to have affordable detached homes, but in large cities and even suburban areas that dream home is slipping away.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver said its benchmark price for a detached home in the region reached $932,900 in February. The area’s most expensive place to buy a detached home was West Vancouver with the average home selling for $2,145,200 last month.

In Toronto, the average detached home sold for $955,314 in February. But even in the suburban ring around the city, the average detached home $640,405.

Townhouses are just more affordable. In Toronto, the average townhouse sold for $545,043 last month while in the suburbs townhouses fetched on average $400,165. It’s the same story in Greater Vancouver with the benchmark index price for a townhouse $458,300.

Affordability issues are driving developers to look for accommodations that can make housing more financially accessible and a key strategy is increasing the density of the pricey land parcels they are acquiring.

In some regions of the country, land use policy encouraging density have helped drive the issue by allowing less vacant land to come on stream.

Niall Haggart, executive vice-president of the Daniels Corp. which builds all types of housing from high rises to single family residences in the Greater Toronto Area, says condominium construction costs have risen fast during the boom. There is a different type of expertise need to build with concrete as opposed to the wood of low-rise and it’s more expensive.

FP0310_Row_V_Single_C_MF

A solution to the problem has been what he calls building “stacks, back-to-back’ which is basically a block of townhouses with units at the front and units at the back and on different floors.

Daniels upped the ante on this type of housing by taking some of these complexes to four storeys high, which still allows the units to be built with low-rise trades keeping prices down and profits up.

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“This evolution of density has become really important because building in concrete has become really expensive,” said Mr. Haggart. The towers at key urban locations can still sell because they can attract enough density to make projects work.

To put the density in context, traditional townhouses allow for about 14 to 18 units per acre, depending on some design factors. Daniels started with stacked and back-to-back and the density went to 26 to 27 units per acre.

“This gave us a greater variety of unit sizes but it also achieved more financially accessible units,” said Mr. Haggart, adding the next step was taking to four storeys which increase the density to 45 units per acre. Single family homes, by comparison, might generate just generate three or four units per acre.

About nine years ago his company built a development in an expensive area of mid-Toronto with a small seven-storey tower and some townhomes. It was the townhomes that sold first.

“It was an affluent buy down market, but people wanted into condominium lifestyle and they wanted their own front door amenity space as opposed to more communal living of a tower,” said Mr. Haggart.

The mid-density structures are still set up legally like traditional condominiums with corporations that run them but there is very little common area and that keeps the condos fees down.

Fees are slightly above 50¢ a square feet per month in Toronto towers, while the townhomes in Daniels average fees about $100/month. Even in the smallest units, the fees are a fraction of highrise condominium.

housing

Sam Crignano, president Cityzen Developments, said during the housing downturn in 2009 his company had a development approved for 1,400 high-rise units but switched to stacked townhouses because of a belief they would sell better. It worked.

The units have one level of underground parking, then four stories above. There’s usually two small flats on the lower levels, and then on level three and four a pair of two-storey units.

“A [high-rise] condo you have to sell well above $500 per square foot just to break even,” said Mr. Crignano, adding government fees and obligations can amount to up $70,000 per unit in some GTA jurisdictions.

It’s not as if detached single family homes are disappearing overnight, but if you look around the GTA, the popular 46-foot lot — once the hallmark of that class of housing — is in short supply.

George Carras, president of RealNet Canada Inc., says there are only eights sites in the entire GTA region offering lots that size and only 31 homes were unsold at the end of 2013. It might have something to do with price as the average was going for $929,423.

“Housing choices are about substituting something, space or you go into a condo. You keep driving [away from Toronto] until you qualify,” he said, noting people can still buying those 46-foot homes — but in Niagara Falls, a commute of more than two hours to downtown Toronto.

Michael Geller, an adjunct professor at Simon Fraser University and a real estate consultant and developer, says the stacked townhouse is something he believes will make its way to the rest of the country.

“It provides a more affordable ownership opportunity in Vancouver,” said Mr. Geller. “No doubt, Vancouver, Calgary and other Canadian cities are copying Toronto.”

He says these type of projects make sense because it allows people downsizing to stay in neighburhoods they prefer and helps buyers break into an area they could otherwise not afford to live in.

“I call them in-between density, whether it’s putting nine homes on three lots or putting 14 townhouses acre, there is something in between a single family house and an apartment building.” said Mr. Geller.

Canadian housing starts pick up in February – consult with Bruce Coleman, Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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imageTORONTO — Canadian housing starts rose more than expected in February, data released on Monday showed, but the modest increase did not sway economists’ expectations that the country’s housing market will cool this year.

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate of housing starts rose to 192,094 units last month from a upwardly revised 180,481 in January, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp (CMHC) said. That topped expectations for an increase to 189,500.

Activity had decreased in January due to unusually harsh winter weather and the rebound in February suggested some of the weather-related impact was starting to wash out of the economic data.

The six-month moving average showed housing starts stood at 192,236 units. Since August 2013, the trend has remained in a range between 185,000 and 195,000, in line with CMHC’s outlook for a stable housing market this year, the report said.

A booming Canadian housing market in recent years prompted fears of a U.S.-style collapse, but Canada has so far avoided such a correction. The Canadian government intervened four times to tighten mortgage rules, which has helped rein in the market.

Most economists believe an increase in borrowing costs this year and an economy that is growing only modestly will lead to a softer but stable market in 2014.

FP0311_HousingStarts_C_JR“We remain of the view that construction activity will edge lower over the course of the year as the forecasted increase in interest rates should restrain demand,” said David Tulk, chief Canada macro strategist at TD Securities in Toronto.

“A smaller contribution from the housing market is consistent with the macro theme of domestic fatigue that will leave headline growth at or below its trend rate until net exports are able find their footing both in response to a weaker currency and a fundamentally stronger US economy.”

Urban starts increased by 7.5% to 175,584 in February. Multiple urban starts surged by 13.3% to 116,458, while single-detached urban starts decreased by 2.4% to 59,126.

Activity increased in urban centers in Quebec and in the Atlantic region, was stable in Ontario, and decreased in the Prairie provinces and British Columbia.

© Thomson Reuters 2014

Fixed mortgages now trump variable, report says. Not everyone agrees – Consult with Bruce Coleman, Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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Vancouver Mortgage BrokerFixed-rate mortgages have gained an edge over variable-rate mortgages given the improving economy and attractive offers on longer-term deals, says a new report from economists at one of Canada’s big banks.

“Fixed now modestly trumps variable,” according to a BMO Nesbitt Burns study published Thursday.

While many mortgage brokers agree with that assessment, others caution that locking into a fixed rate is not the best way to go.

Historically low interest rates have dramatically narrowed the spread between five-year fixed mortgage rates and variable ones, according to the report by BMO Nesbitt Burns chief economist Douglas Porter and senior economist Benjamin Reitzes.

Added to that are improving economic conditions and the likelihood of rate hikes from both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve next year, they say.

“While we have in the past supported going variable, and even though short-term rates are likely to remain low this year, current offers on long-term mortgage rates and the improving economic outlook tilt the balance in favour of locking in at this stage,” the authors say.

Five-year rates of 2.99 per cent can still be found and that compares favourably to the roughly 2.5-per-cent rate offered on variable mortgages, said David Hughes, a mortgage agent with Mortgage Group Ontario Inc.

“I don’t see how you can go wrong getting a five-year mortgage at 2.99 per cent,” he said.

But mortgage planner David Larock says the BMO study “sounds like another chapter in the age-old fixed versus variable debate – and the banks have largely been saying that fixed rates are the way to go for years now, even in the face of considerable evidence to the contrary.

“I am always a little cynical of this stock advice when given by the banks because their fixed-rate mortgages are much more profitable, and convenient, because advising borrowers to take the more conservative path is easily defensible, even if it proves more expensive over time,” he said in an e-mail.

Vince Gaetano, principal broker with MonsterMortgage.ca, agrees.

“Banks are very good at scaring variable-rate clients into locking in prematurely. This took place last year when fixed rates spiked temporarily only to fall again. At the same time, variable-rate discounts have increased,” he said.

The BMO report, meanwhile, says the bond market has been signalling strongly for the past year that “the era of low interest rates may be finally drawing to a close.

“As bond yields rise, the cost of funds for lenders also rises, ultimately putting upward pressure on consumer and business borrowing costs, including long-term mortgage rates. So, even if variable rates take some time to climb, we may not see such low fixed rates again any time soon.”

Historically, fixed rates have proven to be more expensive than variable rates.

“Fully 85 per cent of the time since 1975, the cost-effective route for borrowers was to stay variable,” the report said.

“Considering the likely upward trend in interest rates as the global recovery picks up speed in 2014, this may be one of those rare periods when a fixed rate turns out to be the superior choice.”

There are other reasons why locking into a five-year mortgage may not be for everyone, says another mortgage broker and industry expert.

It could be a disadvantage for homeowners who are considering a move in the near future or mulling a refinancing of their property, said Robert McLister, editor of Canadian Mortgage Trends.

“The bank penalties are not so friendly,” he said.

On average, though, “mathematically speaking I think the five-year fixed is the best value in the market right now.”

The BMO report refers to another – less tangible – factor favouring fixed rates: peace of mind.

The borrower “gets certainty with a fixed rate, and that certainty is worth something to many. A small premium on fixed-rate mortgages and shorter amortization schedule represent inexpensive protection against a rate spike.

“For those who don’t have much financial flexibility, and would run into difficulty from a pronounced upswing in interest rates (typically first-time buyers), any potential extra cost for peace of mind now appears to be a price well worth paying.”

Think Gen Y will prop up Canada’s housing market? Think again – Consult with Bruce Coleman, Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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Hints of the housing market’s undoing can be found in the questions being asked by a 26-year-old, recently graduated, money-saving virtuoso we’ll call Steve.

Heard about all the struggling members of Generation Y who wonder how they’ll ever afford a house? Steve’s not one of them. He graduated with an engineering degree in 2012, landed a full-time job several months later and has been saving aggressively.

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Boomers, Gen Y may not be able to pay the price you’re expecting to get for your home when you sell in the years to come.
(Fred Lum/The Globe and Mail)

Now, he’s thinking about home ownership. He wonders, is it wise for a young person like himself to buy now, or is the market headed for a fall as baby boomers unload their family homes? “I’m curious who they think is going to buy their houses at the prices they expect to get,” Steve said.

Steve, who lives in Mississauga, has done all the right things financially. He worked and saved hard in his student years and, with help from his parents, he graduated from university with no debts other than a small balance of a few hundred dollars on his credit card.

“I’m very fortunate in my situation,” he said. “But I feel like I’m a bit of an outlier. How many young people out there are swimming in debt and can’t even start saving up for a house down payment until their mid-30s?”

Here’s what we know about the struggles of Gen Y. The number of people aged 20 to 29 who are living with their parents hit 42.3 per cent in the 2011 census, up from 27 per cent in 1981. The unemployment rate for young adults was double the national rate at 13.9 per cent in January, and there’s a serious problem of underemployment. Ask your friends and co-workers how their adult kids are doing and you’ll find this to be an issue that cuts across all lines on family income and status.

Meantime, housing prices keep rising in the big cities that offer the best job prospects. The average Calgary house went for about $444,000 in January. The Hamilton-Burlington area, a commutable distance from Toronto, averaged about $385,600, while Toronto itself averaged about $526,500.

Condos may be a cheaper option, and there are always cheaper homes to be found in the suburbs or less desirable neighbourhoods. But there are still two big impediments to Gen Y home ownership: Saving a down payment, and affording the monthly carrying costs.

Not for Steve, mind you. He’s been renting an affordable apartment and, thanks to his good salary and savings habits, he’s not far from having a down payment for a house in the Toronto area. If he dips into his registered retirement savings plan using the federal Home Buyer’s Plan, he’s probably good to go with a minimum 5-per-cent down payment.

A quick aside: This engineer is so meticulous in his financial thinking that he’s creating a spreadsheet to help him understand whether it makes good financial sense to use the Home Buyer’s Plan – “I know how horribly nerdy it sounds.”

In Steve, we have a Gen Y member who believes in home ownership and can afford to buy. He’s just nervous about buying into a market that seems headed for a mismatch between sellers expecting top dollar and buyers with limited means. “You’re going to have a younger generation basically saying, sorry, we can’t afford that.”

Steve e-mailed me looking for some feedback on his thinking about housing. I really have only one question about his analysis: Why is this 26-year-old the only one asking about Gen Y’s ability to keep the housing market afloat in the years ahead?

Boomers, wake up to this. A recent survey by Sun Life Financial suggests almost one in four Canadians see their house as their main source of income in retirement. Newsflash: Gen Y may not be able to pay the price you’re expecting to get for your home when you sell in the years to come.

As for Steve, I suggest waiting on the home purchase. If it’s not Gen Y’s economic struggles that cool the market, it will be the total disconnect between rises in house prices and income (read more about that in my column: Why Canadian homes are more unaffordable than ever.)

The only way it makes sense for Steve to buy any time soon is if he commits to staying in the house long enough – 10 to 12 years at least – for prices to recover from a possible correction. In the short-term after a decline, he should prepare for an epic case of buyer’s regret.

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Here’s an online reading list for people who want to get up to speed on Generation Y and the housing market:

1. Renting beats buying: Asked to justify buying or renting, the 20-somethings in Prof. Richard Harris’s urban housing class at McMaster University choose renting by a margin of 18 to five.

2. Think houses are unaffordable now? Check out how astronomical prices will get if they keep rising at current levels.

3. Don’t fence me in: How some Gen Y members see home ownership as too big a financial sacrifice. tgam.ca/Dz9F

4. Neil’s story: He’s 31, single and renting. Should he use his $20,000 in savings to buy a condo or house?

5. The Who Had It Worse Time Machine: Compare the economic challenges faced by Gen Y with young adults back in the early 1980s.

Follow me on Twitter: @rcarrick


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