Bruce Coleman Mortgage Brokers

604-688-6002

In Canada’s housing market here’s what $500 K buys: A lake in Edmonton … a condo in Toronto – Consult with Bruce Coleman, Vancouver Mortgage Broker

Canadian Mortgage News

CMI 101 Series

Dreyer Group 101 Series

Financial FYI Series

First Time Buyers

Home Buying 101

Home Insurance

Latest News

Mortgage Rates

Refinancing

Retirement Planning

Self Employed

The Canadian Real Estate Association has predicted that the national average price for a home will be $391,000 this year.

Vancouver Mortgage BrokerBut it’s hard to compare how far your buck will go in Canadian cities using that figure, since the average prices at year’s end are so very different: $785,574 in Vancouver and $320,693 in Montreal, for instance. So we’ve found a round figure in the middle and asked, what could approximately $500,000 have bought homebuyers in various markets across the country?

EDMONTON

Shaughn Butts/Edmonton Journal
Shaughn Butts/Edmonton Journal$499,900 in Edmonton will get you two-and-a-half storey, three-bedroom show home, with double detached garage and 2.5 baths.

The place: Two-and-a-half storey, three-bedroom show home, with double detached garage and 2.5 baths

List price: $499,900

edmontonSquare footage: 1,901

Taxes: $3,400

Monthly fees: HOA $300/month

Where: Late stage of an established development in city’s southeast, south of the ring road. Forty minutes to downtown, 10 minutes to the airport, and five minutes to a residents-only recreational lake.

Top features: Loft-den, bonus room with Juliet balcony, hardwood, gas fireplace, all appliances, deck and landscaping included. As a bonus, all the furnishings are included. HOA fee includes access to a 32-acre freshwater lake with sandy beach, dock, tennis courts and all-season clubhouse.

Contact: Madeline Sarafinchin, Jayman Realty (Edm) Inc.; 780-913-6595

MONTREAL

Handout
HandoutThis four-bedroom bungalow in a western suburb of Montreal comes with a salt-water pool.

The place: Four-bedroom bungalow with two baths, built in 1959

List price: $492,500

Square footage: 1,442

Where: The Beaurepaire area of Beaconsfield, a western suburb of Montreal. Not far from Lac St. Louis and a commuter train station.

Top features: Comfortable bright living room with wood fireplace opening to dining area. Fully renovated three years ago, with spacious and modern kitchen with granite counter tops. Unique south-facing den adjacent to master bedroom. Fenced yard with new salt-water pool on a lot of 9,122 square feet. Extra-large basement family room with fourth bedroom, laundry room and workshop.

Taxes: $4,746

Monthly Fees: N/A

Contact: G. Shepherd Abbey, Abbey & Olivier Real Estate Agency; cell: 514-951-6008; office: 514-694-7866; shep@abbeyandolivier.ca

 OTTAWA

handout
handoutIn the east-end suburb of Orleans, separated by a 20- to 25-minute highway drive from downtown Ottawa.

The place: Two-storey single family home with four bedrooms and four bathrooms

List price: $499,900

Square footage: 3,200

Where: In the east-end suburb of Orleans, separated by a 20- to 25-minute highway drive from downtown Ottawa. This home is a short walk to shopping, cafés, parks, schools and public transit.

Top features: Classic crown moulding and gleaming hardwood floors run throughout the main level of this Naismith model by Minto. The kitchen is open to the family room to allow ease of flow when guests come to visit. An elegant curved hardwood staircase leads to the upper landing. Homeowners can spread out with two spacious ensuite bathrooms and three walk-in closets. The backyard is fully fenced with no rear neighbours.

Taxes: $4,879

Monthly Fees: N/A

Contact: Jason Pilon, Keller Williams Ottawa Realty, Jason@PilonHamilton.com, PilonHamilton.com; 613-845-0271

REGINA

Handout
HandoutThis two-storey split in Regina has13 rooms, including three bedrooms and three bathrooms.

The place: A two-storey split with 13 rooms, including three bedrooms and three bathrooms

Advertisement

List price: $519,900

Square footage: 2,090

Where: Situated in a well-established, well-treed neighbourhood in southeast Regina, close to schools, parks and shopping. Only a few minutes drive from downtown. Backing green space.

Top features: A spacious family home, built in 1984, featuring many updates and upgrades, including a modern, eat-in kitchen with granite countertops, and heated slate flooring through the kitchen, dining area and hallway. A garden door leads to the deck overlooking a beautifully landscaped yard with patio, pond and flower beds. The over-sized garage is insulated and drywalled.

Taxes: $3,263

Monthly Fees: N/A

Contact: Leanne Tourney, Re/Max Joyce Tourney Realty; 306-791-7666

Handout
HandoutFormer show home with all the bells and whistles: hardwood floors, kitchen island and walk-in pantry, central air, central vac, four bathrooms and a fully finished basement.

SASKATOON

The place: Two-storey, four bedrooms, four bathrooms

List price: $504,900

Square footage: 3,975

Where: Premium Stonebridge location in the south end of the city. New development full of young families, close to shopping, parks and leisure facilities. Quick access to freeway means that downtown Saskatoon is only a short drive away.

Top features: Former show home with all the bells and whistles: hardwood floors, kitchen island and walk-in pantry, central air, central vac, four bathrooms and a fully finished basement. Open concept. Main-floor laundry.

Taxes: $3,975

Monthly Fees: N/A

Contact: Listed by Manning Luo, Re/Max Saskatoon; 306-242-6000; manning@saskatoonrealestates.ca

TORONTO

Handout
HandoutFor around $500,000 in Toronto you can get a two-bedroom townhouse and have to pay $503 per month in fees.

The place: Two-bedroom, two-storey loft townhouse with one bathroom and one parking space

List price: $489,900

Square footage: 806

Taxes: $2,802.21 in 2013

Monthly fee: Maintenance/HOA of $503 per month

Where: Excellent downtown-west location in the trendy Niagara neighbourhood, with transit, cafés and restaurants nearby. Walking distance to the 37-acre, uber-popular family- and pet-friendly Trinity Bellwoods Park.

Top features: Exposed concrete feature walls, floor-to-ceiling windows, custom kitchen, gas hookup for barbecue on its garden patio.

Contact: Brad Lamb, Brad J. Lamb Realty Inc.; 416-368-5262; brad@torontocondos.com

Faith Wilson Group
Faith Wilson GroupThis one-bedroom condo at “The Grafton”, a heritage conversion building in Yaletown in Vancouver goes for $475,000.

VANCOUVER

The place: 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom condo in The Grafton

List price: $483,000

Square footage: 850

Where: Situated in a prime Yaletown neighbourhood in the heart of downtown, with trendy eateries, entertainment, sports venues and shopping on the doorstep, as well as the seawall and myriad transportation options.

Top features: A New York-style home that merges original heritage features — exposed brickwork and wood beams — with a modern open-concept interior. Features include hardwood floors, expansive windows and a functional floor plan, a gas fireplace, custom kitchen, master bedroom with walk-in closet, five-piece ensuite, storage locker and parking stall.

Taxes: $2,000

Monthly fees: $431 per month

Contact: Faith Wilson at Faith Wilson Group; 604-224-5277; toll-free: 1-855-760-6886

WINDSOR

Postmedia News
Postmedia NewsIn Windsor you can get a four-bedroom, house with games room and office above garage, hardwood floors throughout, maple staircase and designer granite kitchen.

The place: Executive two-storey, four bedrooms, master ensuite bathroom, 2.5-car garage. Located in the suburb of Lakeshore

List price: $499,900

Square footage: 3,300

Taxes: $5,200

Where: Situated in a two-year-old subdivision, 20 minutes from downtown Windsor. Just minutes away from four golf courses and Lake St. Clair.

Top features: A games room and office above garage, hardwood floors throughout, maple staircase and designer granite kitchen, large fenced yard, covered porch and fenced, in-ground pool.

Contact: Larry Pickle, Re/Max Preferred; 519-944-5955

Canadian snowbirds’ dream of U.S. vacation home fading fast – Ask a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

Canadian Mortgage News

CMI 101 Series

Dreyer Group 101 Series

Financial FYI Series

First Time Buyers

Home Buying 101

Home Insurance

Latest News

Mortgage Rates

Refinancing

Retirement Planning

Self Employed

The hundreds of thousands of Canadian snowbirds who flock to the United States are being hit by a falling loonie that should see their purchasing of U.S. winter homes start to slow, says a new report.

Vancouver Mortgage BrokerHere’s what $500K buys in Canada’s housing markets: A lake in Edmonton … a condo in Toronto

From four bedrooms in Windsor to one-bedroom in Vancouvercheck out how far $500,000 goes in 8 major markets across Canada

It’s not going to be any sort of collapse, which is good news for Florida, the number one draw of Canadians where 3.5 million of us spend $4.4-billion annually.

“Make no mistake, the depreciation of the Canadian dollar will have an impact on Canadian stays in snowbird destinations such as Florida, but less than one might expect,” says Derek Burleton, deputy chief economist with Toronto-Dominion Bank, in a report.

Mr. Burleton’s real estate remarks are part of a broader report on the impact of a falling loonie on trips to the United States that are worth about $22.3-billion annually to the American economy based on 23.5 million Canadian visits.

For snowbirds looking to buy, TD says affordability has been impacted not just by the decline of the loonie against the greenback, but also increasing U.S. home prices.

Looking at just Florida, TD says the bottom of the market was reached in 2011 and there has been a steady increase in what it calls its Florida House Price Index. The index is up almost 50% over the past three years.

Much of the increase in Canadians buying in Florida — half a million Canadians own property in the Sunshine State — occurred over the past five years because of what TD calls a “60% cheapening” in property prices.

“No matter how you slice it, new purchase activity by Canadian in the U.S. looks set to slow markedly over the next few years,” writes Mr. Burleton.

In addition to a falling loonie and rising home prices, the cost of borrowing has climbed one percentage point in the U.S. over the past year based on 30-year mortgage rates.

Another problem is Canadians tend to look for cheaper homes where inventories have been drying up. More than half of Canadian buyers paid less than US$200,000 where inventories are down 20% in 2013.

Mr. Burleton emphasizes that the decision to seek a snowbird lifestyle is not going to drop dramatically, demographic trends guarantee that. But it could change people’s thought patterns on buying versus renting.

Existing homeowners might be inclined to ride out a downturn in the loonie because their U.S. homes are rising in values. Investors in U.S. real estate will have the upside of revenue coming in the increasingly stronger greenback.

But for the snowbird looking to buy right now, the game might have changed south of the border.

“We see renting becoming an increasingly preferred option,” said Mr. Burleton.
twitter.com/dustywallet

What you need to know before, and after, buying a condo- ask Bruce Coleman, Vancouver Mortgage Broker

Canadian Mortgage News

CMI 101 Series

Dreyer Group 101 Series

Financial FYI Series

First Time Buyers

Home Buying 101

Home Insurance

Latest News

Mortgage Rates

Refinancing

Retirement Planning

Self Employed

image

What you need to know before, and after, buying a condo

ROB CARRICK.  –  The Globe and Mail

 

Your life as a homeowner will likely include some time in a condo. Condos suit young adults, and retirees who want to downsize. As houses rise in price, more people in between those extremes may opt for condos. Given the strong foundations for condo demand, there are surprisingly few resources available to help people make smart buying decisions.

MORE RELATED TO THIS STORY

Your life as a homeowner will likely include some time in a condo. Condos suit young adults, and retirees who want to downsize. As houses rise in price, more people in between those extremes may opt for condos. Given the strong foundations for condo demand, there are surprisingly few resources available to help people make smart buying decisions.

MORE RELATED TO THIS STORY

BOOK EXCERPT Does it make more financial sense to own a condo or rent an apartment? FINANCIAL FACELIFT Couple’s health concerns make for tough choices Signs of sanity in Toronto’s condo craze

VIDEO Video: Take a look inside Toronto’s priciest condo on the market

MARKET VIEW Video: Market View: Canada’s housing market poised for stable 2014

CARRICK TALKS MONEY Video: Carrick Talks Money: Condo reality check for seniors Into this void comes a new book called The Condo Bible For Canadians: Everything You Must Know Before and After Buying a Condo. (Read an excerpt from the book here.) It’s written by Dan Barnabic, a former Realtor, developer and consumer advocate who now runs a paralegal firm in Toronto. Here’s an edited transcript of a recent conversation I had with Mr. Barnabic about condos.

What accounts for the big rise in popularity of the condo as a place to live?

It’s basically hype fuelled by several forces, many of them developers. The buildings themselves were built much nicer – not better – than ordinary apartment buildings, and they had more amenities. You had swimming pools, you had gyms, you had perks that made you say, why not? As a result, things mushroomed to the point of a deluge of condo towers, especially in Toronto.

Don’t you agree that condos serve a need for some people?

Yes. Condo ownership can be very advantageous for some, including older people who are tired of the hassles of maintaining a house.

What’s the main reason for unhappy condo ownership experiences?

The No. 1 reason is the management of the complex. You can hardly find a condo complex in which the tenants are very happy with the way it’s being run.

What’s the role of the condo board, and how can I make sure they know what they’re doing before I buy?

The condo board is supposed to be in charge of the governance of the complex, making sure that money is being spent properly, that management of the condo is performing its job diligently, that the proper bidding takes place for any repair – stuff like that. You have to find out for yourself if the board is doing its job. Talk to the residents and ask them if they’re happy.

When buying a condo, you suggest starting with a low offer, say 75 per cent of asking. Won’t that just insult the seller?

Is it better to try and get a chance of a better price on a condo, or should you worry about insulting the seller? You’ve got nothing to lose. The worst that will happen is that you’ll be rejected.

Can you explain your warning about buying a condo in a building where more than 25 per cent of units are rented?

If you’re an owner, then it is obvious that you will take care of your condo, that you will not abuse the common elements, that you will look after the amenities.

Tenants simply don’t have the same interest, and you don’t expect them to because they’re not owners.

How can I tell if condo fees in a particular building are reasonable – not kept low to suit the short-term interests of residents, or so high as to work against resale?

You have to basically hit the pavement and compare – go around to other buildings and ask how much people pay and how big their units are.

Special assessments in addition to regular condo fees are a recurring horror story of condo ownership – how can you avoid them?

There’s no such thing as avoiding them. In the first 10 years of a condo, not much happens and it’s unlikely you’d face a special assessment.

After that, the roof is usually good for 10 years and then you have to start patching it up. Elevators start coming into play in 10 years if they’re well made. Outside balconies can become a problem.

There have been reports about leaky condos in Vancouver and falling windows in Toronto – how do you protect yourself against buying a poorly built condo?

The idea is to check on the reputation of the builder. Buying a condo really requires two months’ preparation time to do your due diligence on everything. There are reputable builders, and we have to recognize that. But there are also guys doing things in a hurry to make a buck.

Where do you live?

I am actually renting a very nice apartment on the top floor and not worrying about what expenses the building may incur.

———-

Which makes more financial sense – owning a condo or renting an apartment? Read an excerpt here from The Condo Bible for Canadians by Dan Barnabic.

 

Canada’s housing starts fell twice as fast as expected, raising concern about GDP growth – Ask a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

Canadian Mortgage News

CMI 101 Series

Dreyer Group 101 Series

Financial FYI Series

First Time Buyers

Home Buying 101

Home Insurance

Latest News

Mortgage Rates

Refinancing

Retirement Planning

Self Employed

Canadian housing starts fell twice as fast as economists expected in January, led by a drop in multiple-unit projects.

Vancouver Mortgage Broker

‘Housing no longer looks to be a source of growth’ for the economy, says CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld.
Getty Images

Work on new homes fell 3.7% to a 180,248-unit annualized pace, the third straight decline, Ottawa-based Canada Mortgage & Housing Corp. said Monday. Permits for dwellings such as apartments and condominiums fell 6.0% to 102,289 units and single-family homes rose from the lowest since July 2009 in January, gaining 3.4% to 60,869 units.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz expects a “soft landing” for the housing market after consumer spending and record debt accumulation led the world’s 11th economy out of the 2008 global financial crisis. CMHC said Monday’s figures are in line with its prediction that builders will slow new construction to avoid an inventory glut.

“Housing no longer looks to be a source of growth,” for the economy, said Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC World Markets in Toronto, in a note to clients.

The Bank of Canada’s growth outlook calls for increasing exports and business spending to take over from consumers.

“A slower pace of construction activity to start the year is consistent with the wider theme of domestic fatigue that will inevitably put more pressure on net exports to drive the next stage of Canada’s economic recovery,” said Connor McDonald, economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, in a client note.

Canada’s dollar was 0.2% weaker after the report, trading for C$1.1048 per U.S. dollar at 9:14 a.m. in Toronto. One Canadian dollar bought 90.51 U.S. cents

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a decline to 185,000 from the revised December reading of 187,144.

Bloomberg.com

TFSA or RRSP? Here’s how to decide – Consult with Bruce Coleman, Vancouver Mortgage Broker

Canadian Mortgage News

CMI 101 Series

Dreyer Group 101 Series

Financial FYI Series

First Time Buyers

Home Buying 101

Home Insurance

Latest News

Mortgage Rates

Refinancing

Retirement Planning

Self Employed

NOREEN RASBACH-  The Globe and Mail

Vancouver Mortgage BrokerKuly Gill is every financial planner’s dream. The Calgary lawyer, in his 30s, owns a house, drives an older car and forgoes some annual vacations to save more for retirement. “I live cheap and put everything away,” he says.

His investment strategy is simple: Contribute the full amount allowed each year to a tax-free savings account (TFSA) and any other retirement savings into RRSPs. His portfolio is 100-per-cent equities, mostly blue chip, dividend-paying stocks.

In the TFSA versus RRSP debate, Mr. Gill has made a clear choice – TFSAs first. But as any financial expert will tell you, most Canadians are less certain about which tax-sheltered vehicle to choose if they can’t afford to contribute the maximum allowable amount to both.

Mr. Gill cites the rule used by many financial planners as a rough guideline: If your income (and therefore your tax rate) is greater now than you expect it to be during retirement, go with the RRSP; if it’s lower, go with the TFSA.

“If everything works out as I want it to, I expect to have a lot of income in the future,” Mr. Gill says.

However, for most young people, says David Chilton, author of The Wealthy Barber Returns, that’s an almost impossible guideline. “It involves a lot of guesswork,” he says. Who knows at 30 or 40 years old how much money they will have 25 or 35 years later, or what the tax system will be like decades from now?

Mr. Chilton, not surprisingly, takes a behavioural approach to the decision. If you’re going to put money in a registered retirement savings plan and “blow the refund on something stupid,” then a major advantage of the RRSP – the immediate tax benefit – is lost, he says. Similarly, because you can withdraw money from a TFSA at any time and put it back later, you may be tempted to raid your plan.

“A lot of people think the flexibility [of a TFSA] is an advantage, but I see it as a great disadvantage,” Mr. Chilton says.

Gordon Pape, the author of a slew of books on Canadian retirement planning, says there are other considerations when choosing between an RRSP and a TFSA. If you have a high salary and a blue-chip pension plan, such as a government pension, the TFSA may be the better bet. That’s because the pension, combined with Old Age Security and the Canada Pension Plan, could push your income high enough to prompt clawbacks of the government supports. RRSP withdrawals are considered income; TFSA withdrawals aren’t.

The same principle applies if you have a low income – RRSP withdrawals could affect whether or not you receive the Guaranteed Income Supplement.

However, Mr. Pape says that for most people, RRSPs make the most sense. Most people don’t have larger incomes when they retire, plus they can invest the tax refund they get immediately and benefit in the long-term from compound interest. “You have to look at the magic of compounding – the more years you have for your money to compound in a tax-sheltered environment, the more you’re going to have at the end of the day,” he says.

In the end, it’s the investments you make that matter the most, says Jon Palfrey, the Vancouver-based senior vice-president of Leith Wheeler Investment Counsel Ltd.

TFSAs and RRSPs are tools that can hold a variety of investments, but investors should follow a few important rules: First, he says, avoid any investment that is wildly speculative. “Don’t swing for the fences. You don’t get any benefit from a loss if [the investments] go down. Nothing can be offset.”

Mr. Palfrey’s second rule: Don’t put in cash – or GICs. “If you’re making less than 1 per cent on your GIC, the sheltering benefit is not meaningful.”

There are other investment decisions that apply to both. Mr. Palfrey says that if investors also have non-registered accounts, they should make sure to put bonds in a tax-sheltered account because of their high tax rates.

There are, however, two major differences between the two investment tools. The first involves U.S. stocks: If you hold a dividend-paying U.S. stock in your RRSP, you do not have to pay withholding tax on those dividends, Mr. Palfrey says. You would have to pay the tax (about 15 per cent) if the same stock was in your TFSA.

The second involves an investor’s age. As Mr. Pape points out, “you can’t have an RRSP after the age of 71, but you can have a TFSA for the rest of your life.”

For investors who complain about having to convert RRSPs to RRIFs at age 71 – and then being forced to take out a minimum each year after – TFSAs can be great alternatives.

———–

RRSP vs. TFSA: the basics

Taxes

  • RRSP contributions are tax deductible (which means you get a tax refund), but you pay tax when you withdraw from the RRSP.
  • TFSA contributions are not tax deductible, but withdrawals are tax-free.

Contribution limits

  • For RRSPs, 18 per cent of your previous year’s income, to a maximum of $24,270 in 2014 (less any pension adjustment).
  • For TFSAs, $5,500 in 2014. If you haven’t put money in a TFSA since they were introduced in 2009, your cumulative limit is now $31,000.

Age limits:

  • You can’t make contributions to RRSPs after the year in which you turn 71.
  • No age limits for TFSAs.

CMHC: Canadian housing starts and prices to stabilize in 2014 as demand slows

Canadian Mortgage News

CMI 101 Series

Dreyer Group 101 Series

Financial FYI Series

First Time Buyers

Home Buying 101

Home Insurance

Latest News

Mortgage Rates

Refinancing

Retirement Planning

Self Employed

TORONTO — Canada’s federal housing agency nudged up its forecast for housing starts and prices in 2014 and said sales and construction will be steady to higher in 2015 as an improving economy tempers the impact of rising mortgage rates.

imageThe view from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp suggests the nation’s once-roaring housing market is settling into a soft landing, with construction moderating to more sustainable levels and sales and prices ticking slowly higher.

The CMHC said on Thursday housing starts will be in a range of 176,600 and 199,800 in 2014, with a point forecast, or most likely outcome, of 187,300 units, relatively unchanged from 187,923 units in 2013. That is up slightly from CMHC’s October estimate of 184,700 starts.

The agency said there will be 163,200 to 206,600 units started in 2015, with a point forecast of 184,900.

Both forecasts represent a sharp slowdown from the 214,827 starts of 2012, when the market was at record highs and the government intervened to tighten mortgage lending rules.

Canada sidestepped the worst of the financial crisis of the last decade because it avoided the real estate excesses of its U.S. neighbor, and a post-recession housing boom helped it recover more quickly than its Group of Seven peers.

But the housing market began to cool in mid-2012 after the country’s Conservative government, worried about a potential property bubble, tightened mortgage rules. Demand fueled a strong rebound in 2013, and economists are largely predicting a softer but stable market this year.

The CMHC forecasts see homebuilding and sales leveling off, with prices continuing to notch small gains.

CMHC said existing home sales will range from 436,000 to 497,000 in 2014, with a point forecast of 466,500 units. That’s down slightly from October’s forecast of 468,200 but up from 457,485 in 2013.

For 2015, it expects a move up to a range of 443,400 to 506,000, with an increase in the point forecast to 474,700.

Price gains are expected to slow in 2014 and 2015. CMHC’s point forecast for the average price calls for a 2.1% gain to $390,400 in 2014, and a 1.7% gain to $397,100 in 2015.

© Thomson Reuters 2014

BoC Decision: Pleasantville for Variable Mortgagors – Consult with Bruce Coleman, Vancouver Mortgage Broker

Canadian Mortgage News

CMI 101 Series

Dreyer Group 101 Series

Financial FYI Series

First Time Buyers

Home Buying 101

Home Insurance

Latest News

Mortgage Rates

Refinancing

Retirement Planning

Self Employed

Vancouver Mortgage BrokerToday’s Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision was reassuring for variable-rate borrowers.

  • The Bank announced that Canada’s key lending rate will remain just 75 basis points above its all-time low.
  • The Bank suggested its next move is just as likely to be a rate cut as a rate hike.
  • It said the risk of falling inflation “has grown in importance” and that inflation won’t rise back to its target for “about two years” (suggesting even less chance of a prime rate increase through 2015).

Even if inflation does return to its 2% target, that alone isn’t enough reason for the Bank to raise rates.

So essentially, it’s Pleasantville right now for variable-rate borrowers, with no hikes in sight.

In terms of what it would take for the BoC to actually lower rates, it would likely need at least 2-3 more months of weak economic data (be it falling exports, business investment, inflation or employment).

Fixed income traders believe that could happen. They’re now betting more heavily on a rate cut by October than a rate hike or no change combined. That reflects a key change in market-wide rate expectations over the last month.

Rate-Probability

(Click to enlarge)

Economists, as is often the case, have a different opinion. Those polled by Reuters expect the next rate move to be an increase in mid-2015. (Source: Globe and Mail)

Bond traders took today’s news in stride. The key 5-year yield (which influences fixed mortgage rates) was mostly unchanged, while the loonie dove to a 4-year low.

The next Bank of Canada rate meeting is March 5.


Quotables:

  • “It’s probably as dovish as they could go without adopting an outright easing bias.”—David Tulk, TD Securities (BNN)
  • “The economy is fragile because it relies highly on just one thing…housing.”—BoC head Stephen Poloz (BNN)
  • “…Interest rates…will need to stay low longer than we thought…”— Stephen Poloz

By Robert McLister, Editor, CanadianMortgageTrends.com

Recent changes in Canadian mortgage rates – Consult with Bruce Coleman, Vancouver Mortgage Broker

Canadian Mortgage News

CMI 101 Series

Dreyer Group 101 Series

Financial FYI Series

First Time Buyers

Home Buying 101

Home Insurance

Latest News

Mortgage Rates

Refinancing

Retirement Planning

Self Employed

image

TD fourth big bank to quietly reduce some mortgage rates – Ask Bruce Coleman, Vancouver Mortgage Broker,

Canadian Mortgage News

CMI 101 Series

Dreyer Group 101 Series

Financial FYI Series

First Time Buyers

Home Buying 101

Home Insurance

Latest News

Mortgage Rates

Refinancing

Retirement Planning

Self Employed

TORONTO — The Canadian Press

Another big Canadian bank has lowered some of its mortgage rates slightly after an initial reduction by the Royal Bank over the weekend.

TD Canada Trust (TSX:TD) now has a posted discounted rate of 3.69 per cent for its five-year fixed mortgages, down from the rate of 3.79 per cent that had been in effect since August.

 

The bank has also made changes to several of its other closed rates.

TD said in a an email it reviews its rates on an ongoing basis to “remain competitive and provide our customers with flexible mortgage options and the right rate to meet their individual needs.”

The move comes after RBC lowered its rates on several fixed-rate mortgages over the weekend by 10 basis points, bringing its special offer five-year closed rate to 3.69 per cent.

Bank of Montreal (TSX:BMO) and Scotiabank (TSX:BNS) followed Tuesday.

Scotiabank lowered its discounted five-year closed fixed term mortgage 10 basis points to 3.49 per cent on its website Tuesday, down from 3.59 per cent posted on the site Monday.

BMO, meanwhile, lowered a number of its rates between 10 and 20 basis points, including its discounted five-year fixed rate to 3.69 per cent from 3.89 per cent.

Not the Time for a 10-year Fixed – Consult with Bruce Coleman, Vancouver Mortgage Broker

Canadian Mortgage News

CMI 101 Series

Dreyer Group 101 Series

Financial FYI Series

First Time Buyers

Home Buying 101

Home Insurance

Latest News

Mortgage Rates

Refinancing

Retirement Planning

Self Employed

OK let’s rephrase that. It’s not the time for a 10-year fixed for well over 90% of Canadianmortgagors.

6a00d8341c74cb53ef01a5112a094d970cThere was a time last year when thespread between 10-year and 5-year fixed rates was below 3/4 of a percentage point. That made even the 10-year scoffers among us rethink our positions. But spreads are now back over 1%. That means 10-year terms simply aren’t worth the interest premium anymore (for all except the most payment sensitive borrowers).

Historically, the odds are stacked against 10-year terms (more on that). But the real turn-off is the fact that 5-year rates would need to climb 2.50% higher by the time a 5-year fixed matured, in order for a 10-year to cost you less.*

That could happen of course, but life is an odds game; the rate risk factors just aren’t as threatening as in the past:

  • Inflation is well managed (in fact, it’s currently below the BoC’s target, which is worrisome, and this won’t be the last time)
  • We have a structural unemployment problem in certain sectors–especially manufacturing
  • The U.S. is now far more energy independent (meaning less exports from Canada)
  • Global outsourcing is picking up momentum…still
  • We’re relying on an overleveraged hyper-rate sensitive consumer
  • and the list could go on…

5-or-10-year-mortgageAgainst this backdrop, some feel that five-year rates may have a hard time rising even 200 basis points in 60 months.

If you’re curious where the professional ball gazers are throwing their darts, TD and Desjardins (two of a handful of firms that publicly publish long-term rate forecasts) see a roughly 2.25 percentage point jump in 5-year government yields by year-end 2018. (Bond yields lead long-term fixed rates.)

But interestingly, Desjardins projects just a 1.46 bps jump in 5-year mortgage rates during that same period (which implies spread compression between mortgage rates and funding costs).

In any event, if Vegas posted 2.50% as the over/under for how high 5-year rates would go in 60 months, well-qualified Canadians would be smart to bet on the under.


* Assumes a 25-year amortization and equal payments (i.e., it assumes you’ll make a 10-year fixed payment on the 5-year fixed mortgage)


By Robert McLister, Editor, CanadianMortgageTrends.com


SEO Powered By SEOPressor