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Vancouver new home prices see biggest jump in 4 years

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OTTAWA — New housing prices in Canada rose 0.1 per cent in October from September, the third consecutive month-on-month increase, on strength in the Vancouver metropolitan area, Statistics Canada said on Thursday.

The result matched analysts’ expectations. Prices in the Vancouver area grew by 0.4 per cent, the largest jump since aimagen identical increase in April 2010, on higher material costs and good market conditions.

Related Bank of Canada for the first time warns house prices are overvalued by up to 30% Vancouver accounts for almost 12 per cent of the overall market. Prices in the combined region of Toronto and Oshawa, which represent a 28 per cent slice, increased by 0.1 per cent. Month on month, prices were up in eight of the 21 major metropolitan regions, down in three and unchanged in 10. The new housing price index rose by 1.6 percent compared with October 2013.

The new housing price index excludes apartments and condominiums, which the government says are a particular cause for concern and account for two-thirds of new housing. © Thomson Reuters 2014

Slumping oil prices to hit home prices in Calgary in 2015: Re/Max

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TORONTO — Slumping oil prices are likely to impact Calgary’s real estate market in the coming year, causing home prices to slow their rapid acceleration in Alberta’s largest city, according to a report by realtor group Re/Max.image

The average sale price of a Calgary home is expected to rise by only three per cent in 2015 to $497,500 after shooting up six per cent in 2014, as more buyers are expected to sit on the sidelines to see if the recent slump in oil prices will make houses cheaper.

“Calgary had a significant run-up over the last few years, so it’s becoming more of a balanced market as opposed to a slowing down of the market per se,” said Gurinder Sandhu, executive vice-president, Re/Max Ontario Atlantic.

A booming oil sector has helped drive immigration to the city in recent years, fuelling demand for homes. However, crude oil prices have tumbled roughly 35 per cent from their mid-summer highs due to a strong U.S. dollar, weaker demand and a glut of global supply.

The decline in oil prices has already caused Calgary’s real estate market to become less “red hot,” said Sandhu. But unless low oil prices persist for a prolonged period, home prices in Calgary are unlikely to decline.

Related How to play oil prices from a real estate perspective Toronto house prices’ heady gains expected to continue into 2015 Why IMF can’t stop worrying about Canada’s so-called housing bubble “It would have to be a sustained, long-term depression of oil prices to the point where it would have to start impacting jobs and the overall economy, and we’re not anticipating that for 2015,” he said.

Meanwhile, higher inventory levels in many cities, and in some places a switch to more affordable condominiums, are among factors expected to contribute to significantly smaller price increases across Canada next year, with average prices anticipated to rise a modest 2.5 per cent nationally in 2015 compared with a 6.2 per cent increase in 2014.

Even the hot markets of Vancouver and Toronto are expected to see a significant slowing in price increases, with the average residential sale price set to climb just three per cent in the Great Vancouver area to $863,600 from $834,400 in 2014 when prices went up 7.3 per cent.

Likewise, the Greater Toronto Area is forecast to see a four per cent price increase to an average of $589,100, compared with an 8.3 per cent increase in 2014 to $566,400.

But immigration to major Canadian cities will continue to fuel demand for housing and offset the impact of rising interest rates, which are expected to increase in late 2015, Sandhu said.

“We’re not expecting any dramatic change in housing (prices),” said Sandhu. “We’re expecting some moderation, probably a little more balancing out of the housing market.”

Elsewhere across the country, price increase are expected to be below the national average in most cities in Atlantic Canada, with the exception of Moncton, N.B., where the average sale price is forecast to rise six per cent to $187,500.

Average prices in Montreal are forecast to rise one per cent to $332,600 and by 1.5 per cent in Quebec City to $289,800, while prices in Winnipeg and Saskatoon are forecast to remain static at $285,800 and $333,900 respectively, according to the Re/Max outlook.

Regina is expected to see the average price rise four per cent to $346,500, with a similar percentage increase to $389,000 in Edmonton.

Kelowna, B.C., is expected to experience the biggest percentage increase in prices in 2015 among larger Canadian centres, up seven per cent to $458,000 on top of a 7.8 per cent increase in 2014.

How to play oil prices from a real estate perspective

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Publicly traded Canadian real estate companies should remain unaffected in the short term by lower oil prices, according to a new report from RBC Capital Markets analyst Neil Downey.

Real estate is a lagging sector and it will take a protractimageed period of lower energy prices before impacting underlying real estate fundamentals,” Mr. Downey writes, noting the magnitude and the duration of any downturn in oil creates a guessing game.

The analyst says investors are traditionally focused on how interest rates effect the real estate sector but notes “at its most basic level, real estate is an integral component of the infrastructure for any economy” and benefits during periods of economic strength.

Mr. Downey says sometimes capital can move quickly in a crisis but most of the real estate-related oil moves have been rational. “Real estate investment trusts and real estate operating companies with significant exposures to energy-centric regions have demonstrated price weakness relative to the rest of the pack,” he said, noting the S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index was down almost 5% compared to 22% for the S&P/TSX Energy Index over the past two weeks.

Related For the first time in almost 30 years, the 3 pillars of Canada’s stock market are crumbling Regulating oil and gas a ‘crazy’ policy in times of cheap oil, Harper says The share prices of Morguard REIT and Melcor Developments, with exposure to energy-related economies, have been hit harder than others.

Mr. Downey ranked REITs by energy-related exposure defined mostly as operations in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador. Morguard REIT, topped the list with 94% of net operating income coming from those economies, followed by Melcor at 88% and Boardwalk REIT at 79%.

Other landlords have less exposure with RioCan REIT with only 11% of NOI coming from energy-focused economies. “Even in energy-centric markets, where 2015 retail sales growth may weaken, contractual lease income should offer stability to landlords,” said Mr. Downey. “Elsewhere, consumers in all other regions should have more disposable income to spend at the mall, thus benefiting the retail landlords’ tenants.”

He said a further deterioration in energy prices could still have negative implications for the intermediate-term earnings into 2106 and net asset value growth.

“If crude prices stabilize at current levels and gradually rise through 2015, we suspect that many of the energy-exposed REITs/REOCs will prove to be good ‘buys’ at current prices,” said Mr. Downey. LATEST PERSONAL FINANCE VIDEOS

Canada’s housing starts jump most in 7 months

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imageCanadian housing starts rose the fastest in seven months in November on gains in multiple-unit work, government figures showed.

The pace of work on new homes rose 6.5 per cent to 195,620 units at a seasonally adjusted annual pace in November, Ottawa-based Canada Mortgage & Housing Corp. said Monday. Multiple-unit starts in urban areas rose 13.6 per cent to 112,583, reversing most of the prior month’s decline, and single-family starts fell 2.9 per cent to 63,760 units.

Gains in the housing market this year have been supported by low mortgage rates and falling unemployment. The Bank of Canada has said there are signs of “imbalances” in consumer finances that will moderate, and that the country will avoid a housing crash. Starts next year will slow to a pace of 185,000 units, says Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Diana Petramala.

“While interest rates are expected to remain low in 2015, the housing market will face a number of headwinds,” including higher prices and lower oil that will crimp demand in cities linked to energy production, she wrote in a research note.

Another report Monday from Statistics Canada showed that building permits rose 0.7 per cent in October as gains for industrial projects were curbed by a drop in residential work.

Residential permits fell 0.4 per cent to $4.46 billion as single-family homes were unchanged at C$2.42 billion and multiple-unit projects such as apartments and condominiums fell 0.9 per cent to $2.04 billion.

Industrial projects such as buildings for utilities and manufacturers jumped 34.4 percent to $614 million, leading a 2.4 percent rise in permits for non-residential construction to $3.07 billion.

The pace of housing starts for November almost matched economist forecasts for 195,000, the median of 14 responses to a Bloomberg News survey.

Bloomberg.com

Record household debt triggers warnings over ‘insatiable’ borrowing

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Here’s something to keep in mind as you head out to shop this weekend: There are fresh signs and warnings about the “insatiable appetite” for consumer debt.

The Bank of Canada has amped upimage its concerns, warning Wednesday that, while the economy is improving, “household imbalances, meanwhile, present a significant risk to financial stability.”

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LET’S TALK INVESTING Video: Are your debts making you sick? The central bank has oft cited this threat as household debt burdens rose to record levels. Its latest red flag went up on the same day as two reports underscored the swollen debts among Canadians just as the holiday shopping frenzy begins.

In one report, Equifax Canada said that “Canadian consumers have yet again tipped the scales setting a new benchmark of over $1.513-trillion in debt.”

That third-quarter figure marked an increase from $1.448-trillion in the second quarter and $1.409-trillion a year earlier, according to Equifax, whose numbers are based on more than 25 million unique consumer files.

Excluding mortgages, average debt held by Canadians has increased 2.7 per cent to $20,891.

There is a bright spot, however, in that delinquency rates declined.

The second report, from Royal Bank of Canada, put the overall figure, which includes mortgages, even higher at just under $1.8-trillion as of October.

Citing the latest central bank data suggesting household debt climbed 4.5 per cent from a year earlier, RBC economist Laura Cooper observed that “Canadian households’ insatiable appetite for credit was evident in October.”

The residential mortgage market is holding steady, Ms. Cooper said, while “a sustained period of low interest rates set against a strengthening economic backdrop is likely abetting a pickup in non-mortgage credit growth.

Those types of credit, which include plastic, lines of credit and other personal loans, rose 2.9 per cent in the year through October.

Meanwhile, the housing markets in key cities continue to soar.

For example, the cost of a single-family detached home in Vancouver is “closing in on a cool $1-million,” senior economist Sal Guatieri of BMO Nesbitt Burns said in a research note.

Equifax warned that indebtedness is expected to reach new heights over the holiday shopping season.

“Following a frenzied start to the festive shopping season with more to come in the countdown to Christmas, we can expect the consumer debt to rise even further,” said senior director Regina Malina. “Tis the season, so we can anticipate credit cards getting a strong workout throughout December.”

The Bank of Canada “seemed more concerned than before about the financial stability risks associated with household imbalances,” said Canada economist David Madani of Capital Economics. “This isn’t surprising, given the pickup in housing activity lately and further inflation in home values.”

The extended low-interest-rate environment is the main driver of the continued increase in consumer indebtedness, Equifax said.

The central bank and federal Finance Department have for a long time voiced concerns over the hefty debt load Canadians are carrying, levels that now significantly exceed those in the United States.

“We’re in good shape right now but we definitely have to stay vigilant,” Ms. Malina said in an interview. “I think there is a general agreement that, even if interest rates started to come up in 2015, they would not be coming up quickly.”

The status update on debt is worrisome but at the same time delinquency and bankruptcy rates have been inching down each quarter, she said. “The fact is, while debt figures have gone up, they have increased at a slower rate in the third quarter with most Canadians seemingly still spending within their means.”

The rise in consumer demand for new credit has been fuelled mainly by credit card and auto credit inquiries, Equifax added.

Auto makers have been making it easier to finance car purchases, with enticements such as longer repayment periods that reduce the monthly cost.

The biggest increases were in the auto-loan and installment-loan sectors, at 6.8 per cent and 5.8 per cent year over year, respectively.

The delinquency rate, which tracks bills overdue by 90 days or more, fell to 1.10 per cent from 1.11 per cent in the second quarter, its lowest level since 2008.

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Millennials with debt face rent-or-buy dilemma

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Johanna and Jack have landed good jobs so they’re eager to pay off their student loans. They also want to buy a house and in time, get married and have children.

He is 29, she is 27. They live comfortably in a Toronto-area suburb and enjoy weekend getaways every couple of months. Together, they bring in nearly $140,000.image

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CARRICK TALKS MONEY Video: Carrick Talks Money: Why Gen Y’s job struggles are a ‘massive problem’ If they stay in their current jobs, they will both be entitled to government pensions. But that’s a long way off. For now, the asset side of their balance sheet is light: $21,500 altogether. On the liabilities side, they have nearly $45,000 in student debt and a $19,500 car loan.

“Should we even be trying to save for a home?” Jack asks in an e-mail. Their plan is to buy when the housing market weakens. The kind of house they want would cost at least $600,000. Should they continue to rent or “should we just go ahead and buy?” Jack asks.

“How can we optimize our cash flow to attain debt freedom as quickly as possible?” he adds.

We asked Christine White, a money coach at Money Coaches Canada in Toronto, to look at Jack and Johanna’s situation.

What the expert says

Jack and Johanna like where they live but are uncomfortable with their student debt, so they should pay it off first and then begin saving for a house, Ms. White says.

“This will put them in a much better position to buy their dream home in a few years,” she says. If they attempt to do so now, they “will absolutely be house poor.”

She suggests they pay a combined $1,600 a month against their student loans so they will be paid off in two and a half years (April, 2017). They should pay the line of credit first because it has a higher interest rate and also because interest on the Ontario Student Assistance Program (OSAP) loans is tax deductible.

Next, they could take their $5,000 cash and move $2,500 each to a tax-free savings account to start building an emergency fund, Ms. White says.

Even though Johanna and Jack are striving to pay down their student loans, they could still contribute at least $50 each to a registered retirement savings plan every payday. That way, they could draw on this money later under the federal government’s Home Buyers’ Plan for a down payment. They are allowed to borrow $25,000 each, for a total of $50,000.

They should strive for at least a 10-per-cent down payment, which would be $60,000, the planner says. “Ideally, a 20-per-cent down payment would allow them to completely avoid the additional cost of mortgage loan insurance,” Ms. White says.

Once their debt is paid off, they can start “power saving” – putting the $1,600 a month that was going toward debt repayment to building up a down payment.

“Following this plan, they can have an additional $50,000 saved in their RRSPs within two years,” the planner says ($800 each a month multiplied by 24 would give them $19,200 each after two years. That, plus a 30-per-cent tax refund, or $5,760, would give them $24,960 each). Jack already has $16,000.

Longer term, Jack and Johanna may decide to move back to their home town, especially if they have children. They figure their salaries would be roughly the same if they could get jobs in the public service but the cost of housing would be halved.

“Given that they may want to move back home to be near family for support, they would be wise to pay off their debts, build a down payment and then decide if it’s best to buy in the city or wait until they lay down roots,” Ms. White says.

Once their car loan is paid off, they should “consciously reallocate” that $500 monthly to some other goal “to avoid it getting lost in discretionary spending,” the planner says.

“For example, they could split the payment amount, using half for saving for their home and the other half to save for a new car.” All debt payments and savings should be set up to occur automatically and be aligned with paydays if possible, the planner says.

**

Client situation:

The people: Johanna, 27, and Jack, 29

The problem: Can they afford to buy the house of their dreams now or should they pay off their debts?

The plan: Pay off the student loans and the car loan, then save as much as possible to RRSPs to take advantage of the federal Home Buyers’ Plan. Have at least a 10 per cent down payment, more if possible.

The payoff: A more secure footing with less risk of being house poor.

Monthly net income: $8,665

Assets: Cash in bank $5,000; stocks $500; his RRSP $16,000. Total: $21,500

Monthly disbursements: Rent $1,500; other housing $70; transportation $480; grocery store $600; clothing $420; line of credit $200; car loan $500; OSAP loans $435; gifts, charitable $120; vacation, travel $300; drinks, dining, entertainment $700; grooming $70; clubs $50; golf $150; sports, hobbies, subscriptions $50; miscellaneous cash $225; dentists, drugstore, $40; telecom, TV, Internet $200; RRSP $215; pension plan contributions $1,150; professional association $115. Total: $7,590

Liabilities: His student loan $20,000; her student loan $14,500; her student line of credit $10,000; car loan $19,500. Total: $64,000

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Want a free financial facelift? E-mail finfacelift@gmail.com Some details may be changed to protect the privacy of the persons profiled.

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Young family craves vacation retreat, but should they wait

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Lena and Louis have good jobs and manage their money well. She is 38, he is 39. They have two children, ages 1 and 3.

Lena is in the Canadian Armed Forces, while Louis works as a manager. Like many parents, they are eager to buy a vacation retreat while their children are small, but they still have a while to go until their mortgage and car loans are paid off. Should they wait or buy the cottage now?

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RETIREMENT PLANNING Retirement dilemma: He says British Columbia: She says Ontario

MULTIMEDIA Into the wild: A cottage enthusiast does it his way Louis and Lena are paying an extra $1,500 a month on their mortgage on their home in Southern Ontario and hope to have it paid off in three or four years. As well, they are saving for their children’s higher education. Although they have some cash and savings, they would have to borrow to buy the cottage.

Longer term, their goals include paying off the vacation property mortgage in turn, increasing their retirement savings and travelling more. They hope to retire in their mid to late 50s with $60,000 a year after tax.

“Can we afford to purchase a cottage for about $250,000 in the next two to four years and still afford our retirement goals?” Lena writes in an e-mail.

“Should the cottage purchase be delayed until after the house mortgage is completely paid off and the kids are out of daycare?” she asks.

Lena will qualify for a full government pension when she retires but Louis has no work pension plan.

We asked Keith Copping, a financial planner at Macdonald Shymko & Co. Ltd. in Vancouver, to look at Louis and Lena’s situation. Macdonald Shymko is a fee-only financial planner.

What the expert says

With payments of $3,150 a month, Lena and Louis will have their $127,000 mortgage paid off in 3.5 years, Mr. Copping says. Their $33,500 in car loans will be paid off in 3.8 years. By 2018, their mortgage and car loans will be paid in full. They will be 42 and 43.

“Their expenses will be reduced by $3,885 a month (mortgage, car loans, extra mortgage payments), plus their child-care costs will be falling as the children reach school age,” the planner notes.

By waiting to buy a cottage, their monthly outlays will be $4,000 to $5,000 lower, enabling them to absorb the financing costs, estimated at $2,057 a month (based on a $250,000 loan with a 13-year amortization) plus maintenance and other costs associated with a second property, Mr. Copping says.

If they were to buy a cottage now, “the extra cost will stretch the budget and result in a longer time frame to pay off the home mortgage, as well as reduced savings,” Mr. Copping says. “Better to pay off the current debt first,” he adds.

Lena and Louis have good jobs and manage their money well. She is 38, he is 39. They have two children, ages 1 and 3.

Lena is in the Canadian Armed Forces, while Louis works as a manager. Like many parents, they are eager to buy a vacation retreat while their children are small, but they still have a while to go until their mortgage and car loans are paid off. Should they wait or buy the cottage now?

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MULTIMEDIA Into the wild: A cottage enthusiast does it his way Louis and Lena are paying an extra $1,500 a month on their mortgage on their home in Southern Ontario and hope to have it paid off in three or four years. As well, they are saving for their children’s higher education. Although they have some cash and savings, they would have to borrow to buy the cottage.

Longer term, their goals include paying off the vacation property mortgage in turn, increasing their retirement savings and travelling more. They hope to retire in their mid to late 50s with $60,000 a year after tax.

“Can we afford to purchase a cottage for about $250,000 in the next two to four years and still afford our retirement goals?” Lena writes in an e-mail.

“Should the cottage purchase be delayed until after the house mortgage is completely paid off and the kids are out of daycare?” she asks.

Lena will qualify for a full government pension when she retires but Louis has no work pension plan.

We asked Keith Copping, a financial planner at Macdonald Shymko & Co. Ltd. in Vancouver, to look at Louis and Lena’s situation. Macdonald Shymko is a fee-only financial planner.

What the expert says

With payments of $3,150 a month, Lena and Louis will have their $127,000 mortgage paid off in 3.5 years, Mr. Copping says. Their $33,500 in car loans will be paid off in 3.8 years. By 2018, their mortgage and car loans will be paid in full. They will be 42 and 43.

“Their expenses will be reduced by $3,885 a month (mortgage, car loans, extra mortgage payments), plus their child-care costs will be falling as the children reach school age,” the planner notes.

By waiting to buy a cottage, their monthly outlays will be $4,000 to $5,000 lower, enabling them to absorb the financing costs, estimated at $2,057 a month (based on a $250,000 loan with a 13-year amortization) plus maintenance and other costs associated with a second property, Mr. Copping says.

If they were to buy a cottage now, “the extra cost will stretch the budget and result in a longer time frame to pay off the home mortgage, as well as reduced savings,” Mr. Copping says. “Better to pay off the current debt first,” he adds.

They have a monthly surplus of about $820, which they have been using for tax-free savings account contributions and extra loan payments.

Lena and Louis also wonder how the cottage purchase will affect their retirement spending goal.

“With 20 years’ service to date, Lena can qualify for a full pension at age 54,” the planner notes. She plans to work to at least age 55.

Mr. Copping estimates her pension at $75,600 a year, falling to $66,480 a year at age 65, when her pension will be reduced by her Canada Pension Plan benefit.

“Assuming they save $15,000 a year (RRSPs and TFSAs) for the next 17 years until Lena is age 55, their combined RRSP and TFSA savings of $219,200 could grow to about $900,000, assuming a 5 per cent return.”

Their savings, plus Lena’s pension, their CPP benefits at age 65 and their Old Age Security benefits at age 67, should allow them to “achieve their retirement goal with a healthy surplus,” the planner says. Altogether, their income sources could approach $100,000 a year, before tax.

They should continue to contribute to Louis’s registered retirement savings plan and their tax-free savings accounts when possible, he says. This would give them the flexibility to respond to unexpected events and perhaps help their children, who will still be fairly young when their parents retire. As well, Lena and Louis could draw on their savings while they are waiting to collect their CPP and OAS benefits.

They could use some of the cash they have in the bank to fund higher RRSP contributions for Louis so he could take advantage of his unused contribution room, the planner says. This should give him tax savings in the range of 33 to 39 per cent, he adds.

Lena and Louis should aim to be debt free by the time Lena retires at age 55, Mr. Copping says.

**

Client situation:

The people: Lena, 38, Louis, 39, and their two children, 1 and 3.

The problem: How soon can they afford to buy a cottage?

The plan: Wait until their home mortgage and car loans are paid off, likely in 2018, to buy the cottage. Aim to have the cottage loan paid off before they quit working.

The payoff: They can avoid a potential cash squeeze and have greater financial flexibility.

Monthly net income: $11,700

Assets Home $555,000; her TFSA $24,000; his TFSA $25,300; her RRSP $90,600; his RRSP $79,300; RESP $11,780; cash $19,000; present value of her pension plan: $644,655. Total: $1.45-million

Monthly disbursements Mortgage $3,150; property tax $400; home insurance $130; maintenance $200; utilities $320; transportation $440; grocery store $600; clothing $20; phones $125; cable/Internet $160; child care $1,700; dining, drinks, entertainment, club membership $390; travel, vacation $400; life insurance $20; car loans $735; RESP $490; gifts, charitable $200; RRSPs $800; employee pension plan $600. Total: $10,880 Surplus $820

Liabilities: Mortgage $127,000 at 3.55 per cent; car loans $33,500. Total: $160,500

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Want a free financial facelift? E-mail finfacelift@gmail.com Some details may be changed to protect the privacy of the persons profiled.

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Toronto house prices’ heady gains expected to continue into 2015

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Canada’s largest housing market continues to show price gains which the Toronto Real Estate Board says will continue into 2015.

The board said the average sale price in November was $577,936, a 7.4% increase from a year ago.

Year-to-date prices are up 8.4% to an averaimagege of $567,198.

Related Great news coming if you’re renewing a mortgage, you’re about to save money Black Friday mortgage specials see rates dip close to historic lows How to co-buy a home with your friend in Canada’s expensive market “The robust average price growth experienced throughout 2014 has been fundamentally sound, with demand high relative to supply. Strong competition between buyers has exerted upward pressure on selling prices. Barring a substantial shift in the relationship between sales and listings in the GTA, price growth is expected to continue through 2015,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s director of Market Analysis, in a statement.

Sales across the Greater Toronto Area climbed 2.6% from a year ago to 6,519. For the first 11 months of 2014 there were 88,462 sales — a 6.6% jump from the same period in 2013.

“Even with a constrained supply of homes for sale in many parts of the Greater Toronto Area, buyers continued to get deals done last month. Households remain upbeat about home ownership because monthly mortgage payments remain affordable relative to accepted lending standards. This is coupled with the fact that housing has proven to be a quality long-term investment,” said Paul Etherington, president of the board, in a statement. LATEST PERSONAL FINANCE VIDEOS

Despite spiking house prices, ownership became slightly more affordable in the third quarter, says RBC

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TORONTO — Home ownership became more affordable in Canada in the third quarter despite a broad spike in home prices, according to the latest survey by RBC Economics.

How to co-buy a home with your friend in Canada’s expensive market

As housing costs rise, many first-time homebuyers are being priced out of the market and unable to save the huge down payment or even qualify for a mortgage. So more people are resorting to other ways to achimageieve their home-buying goals, including co-buying with friends or family. Keep reading. The bank says that was because of rising household incomes, low and steady interest rates and cheaper utility costs in many parts of the country.

RBC says resales rose for the eighth time in the past nine months in October, primarily due to robust activity in hot markets in Calgary, Toronto and Vancouver.

That is in contrast to balanced or soft conditions elsewhere in the country despite signs of strengthening activity in the third quarter.

RBC says this split resale picture shows up in price trends as well, with prices in Calgary, Toronto and Vancouver appreciating much faster than other local markets.

The report also suggests declines in fixed mortgage rates earlier this year were a key reason for such strength in the housing market since spring.

RBC predicts interest rates will slow the market in 2015 with the Bank of Canada expected to raise its overnight rate mid-year and longer-term rates will rise before that.

Related Forget city living: Canadian seniors are moving to the suburbs, study finds Great news coming if you’re renewing a mortgage, you’re about to save money “With home resales sitting close to the highest levels since early 2010, the overall tone of Canada’s housing market is quite solid at this stage,” said RBC chief economist and senior vice president Craig Wright.

“A combination of gradually increasing interest rates and higher prices will likely reverse the improvement in housing affordability that took place in the past year and weigh more and more heavily on homebuyer demand in Canada,” he said.

“We expect the next stage of the housing cycle to be a transition toward lower resales and slower price increases.”

The RBC index looks at the level of pre-tax household income needed to cover the costs of owning a specified category of home at current market values.

During the third quarter of, affordability measures at the national level fell by 0.2 percentage points to 47.8% for two-storey homes and by 0.3 percentage points to 27.1% for condo apartments. The measure for detached bungalows inched higher by 0.1 percentage points to 42.6%. LATEST PERSONAL FINANCE VIDEOS

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imageCanada’s housing market is likely to achieve a soft landing but authorities may need to tighten mortgage rules further to contain vulnerabilities to a crash, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday.

Canada avoided the housing market crash that accompanied the financial crisis in the United States. But a post-recession housing boom, fuelled by record-low borrowing costs, has prompted some analysts to warn a bubble may be in the works.

Canada’s Conservative government has tightened eligibility for government-backed mortgage insurance several times, hoping to push more marginal buyers out of the market and cool the market.

The IMF saw signs of over valuation in single-family homes, especially associated with high-end buyers, but said tighter mortgage insurance rules, reduced affordability and the construction of multi-family units appeared to have contained price growth in other market segments.

“Further action may be needed if household balance sheet and housing market vulnerabilities resume rising,” it said.

“The balance of risks is modestly tilted to the downside for the Canadian economy,” the IMF said, pointing to the possibility of faster-than-expected tightening of global financial conditions and a further fall in oil prices.

“Deeper downside risks to growth involve a combination of external shocks that are amplified by high household balance sheet vulnerabilities and a sharper-than-expected correction in house prices.”

The IMF also said Canadian banks and other mortgage lenders should rely less on the federal government to cushion the risk of a downturn in the housing market.

Related Despite spiking house prices, ownership became slightly more affordable in the third quarter, says RBC CMHC to Canadian homebuilders: Beware of overbuilding in Toronto and Montreal Housing bubble begone. Turns out we just might need all those new condos and houses “Action to further limit exposure of taxpayers to the housing market and encourage appropriate risk retention by the private sector would be desirable,” the Washington-based lender said in a statement following a staff mission to Canada.

Canadian policy makers are counting on a pickup in exports and business investment to return the economy to full potential, after a recovery driven by consumer spending and government stimulus. The Bank of Canada said last month the risks to the financial system of high household debt are “edging higher,” even as it kept its benchmark interest rate at 1%.

Governor Stephen Poloz can afford to wait for “firmer signs to emerge of a more balanced and durable recovery with stronger business investment” before raising rates, the IMF said, noting falling crude prices should damp inflation.

The IMF forecasts the Canadian economy will grow 2.4% next year. Stronger growth in the U.S., which the fund projects will expand at a 3.1% pace in 2015, “should support above-potential growth and a broadening recovery” in Canada, it said.

Downside Risks

Still, the risks to the world’s 11th biggest economy are “modestly tilted to the downside,” the IMF said. Faster-than- expected tightening of global credit and a further drop in crude prices are the key threats to the nation’s outlook, according to the fund.

Canadian policy makers have taken steps to cool the housing market and reduce the exposure of taxpayers, even as they have maintained the country isn’t facing a bubble.

Canadian existing home sales rose last month, approaching the highest level in four years, amid gains in Vancouver and Toronto, the Canadian Real Estate Association said this month.

Canada Mortgage & Housing Corp., the nation’s housing agency, said in June it would would stop offering mortgage insurance for multiple-unit condominium construction.

Mortgage Pools

CMHC insurance is fully backed by the federal government. By law, Canadian mortgages that have less than a 20% downpayment must be insured. The government also guarantees 90% of mortgage insurance offered by private-sector insurers.

CMHC also backs pools of mortgages that financial institutions repackage as securities sold to investors.

Chief Executive Officer Evan Siddall said in a speech in September the agency is “evaluating a range of ideas on future improvements to our housing finance system, including risk sharing with lenders to further confront moral hazard.”

The IMF said in its report today that CMHC and private- sector mortgage insurers should consider reducing the amount of bulk mortgage insurance they offer. Financial institutions purchase so-called portfolio insurance to cover pools of mortgages they plan to securitize. CMHC started rationing portfolio insurance in 2012.

The IMF also said policy makers should consider tighter standards such as lower amortization limits on uninsured mortgages, which are growing about 10% a year.

With files from Bloomberg and Reuters


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