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CMHC’s move to hike mortgage insurance premiums prompts competitors to follow – Ask a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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The cost of mortgage default insurance is about to go up for most consumers after competitors moved quickly to follow Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.’s decision to raise premiums.

Vancouver Mortgage BrokerIn Canada’s housing market here’s what $500 K buys: A lake in Edmonton … a condo in Toronto

The Canadian Real Estate Association has predicted that the national average price for a home will be $391,000 this year.

But it’s hard to compare how far your buck will go in Canadian cities using that figure, since the average prices at year’s end are so very different: $785,574 in Vancouver and $320,693 in Montreal, for instance. So we’ve found a round figure in the middle and asked, what could approximately $500,000 have bought homebuyers in various markets across the country? Read on to find out.

The federal agency announced Friday it is increasing premiums across the board, effective May 1. The change does not impact existing homeowners and is expected to raise up to $175-million for CMHC.

“The higher premiums reflect CMHC’s higher capital targets,” said Steven Mennill, CMHC’s vice-president of insurance operations, in a release. “CMHC’s capital holdings reduce Canadian taxpayers’ exposure to the housing market and contribute to the long term stability of the financial system.”

CMHC said in a conference call with journalists to discuss the premium change that it should cost the average Canadian about $5 per month on their mortgage.

Canadians must buy mortgage default insurance if they have less than a 20% downpayment and are borrowing from a financial institution covered by the Bank Act. The insurance covers banks in the event of default and is ultimately backstopped by the federal government. There is close to $1-trillion backed by Ottawa, including private players.

At the top end of the market for someone with a mortgage for 95% of the value of their home, the premium CMHC charges will go from 2.75% to 3.15%. On a $450,000 mortgage, the fee — it is charged up front and often tacked onto the mortgage, would rise from $12,375 to $14,175.

CMHC controls about 70% of the mortgage default insurance market in Canada with private players Genworth Canada and Canada Guaranty holding the rest.

Genworth announced it too would raise premiums across the board by an average of 15%. Its increases will take effect May 1 too.

“All three insurers have the same standard premiums today. By the time CMHC hikes its fees in May, I suspect the privates will have announced matching increases,” said Rob McLister, editor of Canadian Mortgage Trends, before Genworth matched the hike.

Tyler Anderson/National Post
Tyler Anderson/National PostCMHC controls about 70% of the mortgage default insurance market in Canada with private players Genworth Canada and Canada Guaranty holding the rest.

A key issue will be whether the hike, it’s only 10 basis points for mortgages that are 65% loan to value, leads to people trying to buy ahead of the increase.

On the call with journalists, CMHC officials indicated they didn’t expect any of this so-called front-running to happen. However, when mortgage rates were set to climb, consumers did try to buy early to beat the increase — albeit interest increases have a far greater impact on consumer costs.

Finn Poschmann, vice President, research with the C.D. Howe Institute, said he thinks the increase will lead to a jump in sales ahead of the May 1 price change. “As a share of closing costs, it is a pretty big hit,” said Mr. Poschmann. “On a monthly basis it’s not that much. The change goes by the application date not the closing date so even if you are going to be closing a couple of months later, you are facing an incentive to get the mortgage application in.”

He applauded the change because it means CMHC is operating in a more professional manner.

“This is much better risk management and risk pricing,” said Mr. Poschmann. “And it is a sensible, scaled increase in premiums for rising loan to value ratios.”

Last year, the federal government announced that CMHC would fall under control of the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. Then in late 2013 it announced it had brought in a former investment banker, Evan Siddall, to run the Crown corporation.

Pimco sees Canadian housing market falling as much as 20% – Consult with a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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Vancouver Mortgage BrokerPacific Investment Management Co. forecasts Canadian home prices falling as much as 20% in the next five years, removing the boost from household spending that contributed to faster-than-expected growth last quarter.

In Canada’s housing market here’s what $500 K buys: A lake in Edmonton … a condo in Toronto

 

 

Bank of CanadaFrom four bedrooms in Windsor to one-bedroom in Vancouver, check out how far $500,000 goes in 8 major markets across Canada. Read on

“Canadian housing is overvalued,” Ed Devlin, the London-based head of Pimco’s Canadian portfolio, said by telephone. “I would expect to see it happening at the end of this year, we’re going to start to see housing roll over.”

The world’s largest manager of bond funds has been reducing its holdings of Canadian debt after a run of strong profits, he said. The housing decline, which could be cancelled out or reduced to 10% when accounting for inflation, will cause a pullback in consumer spending, capping economic growth this year in Canada around 2%, Devlin said.

Though that is less than the 2.3% growth forecast by the Bank of Canada, it should still be enough to keep the central bank from cutting interest rates as exports pick up some of the slack, he said.

Consumer spending helped boost Canada’s gross domestic product by 2.9% in the last three months of 2013, data showed last week. More recent data has shown signs the housing market is cooling, with new-home construction falling twice as fast as economists forecast in January.

“It’s not a collapse, it’s a correction. We think the Canadian economy can handle it,” said Devlin. “It’s going to be a headwind to consumption as people don’t have the same kind of wealth effect and are more anxious about their house than they have been in the past. They’ll consume less.”

According to the IMF, Canada has the most overvalued housing market in the world

Bank of CanadaThe report, which aims to put global housing markets in perspective, puts Canada at the top of the overvalued scale, 85% above the historic average of house prices to rent. Read on

Pimco isn’t the only one warning the market is overvalued. Deutsche Bank, for instance, issued a report in December that said Canada’s housing market was the most overvalued in the world, pegging prices as being 60% too high.

Last month both the International Monetary Fund and TD economists said Canadian home prices were overvalued by 10%.

The IMF’s report said that when compared to other advanced economies and income and rents in Canada, home prices remain high, even as home sales have stalled. It does note that not all Canadian markets are overvalued, however, and that outsized prices tend to dominate in the country’s largest cities, such as Toronto.

The Canadian housing market and worries about a real estate bubble have been key concerns for policy-makers for several years. Recent indicators have suggested the market may be headed for a soft landing instead of a bubble bursting, but concerns have persisted.

In Canada’s housing market here’s what $500 K buys: A lake in Edmonton … a condo in Toronto – Consult with Bruce Coleman, Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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The Canadian Real Estate Association has predicted that the national average price for a home will be $391,000 this year.

Vancouver Mortgage BrokerBut it’s hard to compare how far your buck will go in Canadian cities using that figure, since the average prices at year’s end are so very different: $785,574 in Vancouver and $320,693 in Montreal, for instance. So we’ve found a round figure in the middle and asked, what could approximately $500,000 have bought homebuyers in various markets across the country?

EDMONTON

Shaughn Butts/Edmonton Journal
Shaughn Butts/Edmonton Journal$499,900 in Edmonton will get you two-and-a-half storey, three-bedroom show home, with double detached garage and 2.5 baths.

The place: Two-and-a-half storey, three-bedroom show home, with double detached garage and 2.5 baths

List price: $499,900

edmontonSquare footage: 1,901

Taxes: $3,400

Monthly fees: HOA $300/month

Where: Late stage of an established development in city’s southeast, south of the ring road. Forty minutes to downtown, 10 minutes to the airport, and five minutes to a residents-only recreational lake.

Top features: Loft-den, bonus room with Juliet balcony, hardwood, gas fireplace, all appliances, deck and landscaping included. As a bonus, all the furnishings are included. HOA fee includes access to a 32-acre freshwater lake with sandy beach, dock, tennis courts and all-season clubhouse.

Contact: Madeline Sarafinchin, Jayman Realty (Edm) Inc.; 780-913-6595

MONTREAL

Handout
HandoutThis four-bedroom bungalow in a western suburb of Montreal comes with a salt-water pool.

The place: Four-bedroom bungalow with two baths, built in 1959

List price: $492,500

Square footage: 1,442

Where: The Beaurepaire area of Beaconsfield, a western suburb of Montreal. Not far from Lac St. Louis and a commuter train station.

Top features: Comfortable bright living room with wood fireplace opening to dining area. Fully renovated three years ago, with spacious and modern kitchen with granite counter tops. Unique south-facing den adjacent to master bedroom. Fenced yard with new salt-water pool on a lot of 9,122 square feet. Extra-large basement family room with fourth bedroom, laundry room and workshop.

Taxes: $4,746

Monthly Fees: N/A

Contact: G. Shepherd Abbey, Abbey & Olivier Real Estate Agency; cell: 514-951-6008; office: 514-694-7866; shep@abbeyandolivier.ca

 OTTAWA

handout
handoutIn the east-end suburb of Orleans, separated by a 20- to 25-minute highway drive from downtown Ottawa.

The place: Two-storey single family home with four bedrooms and four bathrooms

List price: $499,900

Square footage: 3,200

Where: In the east-end suburb of Orleans, separated by a 20- to 25-minute highway drive from downtown Ottawa. This home is a short walk to shopping, cafés, parks, schools and public transit.

Top features: Classic crown moulding and gleaming hardwood floors run throughout the main level of this Naismith model by Minto. The kitchen is open to the family room to allow ease of flow when guests come to visit. An elegant curved hardwood staircase leads to the upper landing. Homeowners can spread out with two spacious ensuite bathrooms and three walk-in closets. The backyard is fully fenced with no rear neighbours.

Taxes: $4,879

Monthly Fees: N/A

Contact: Jason Pilon, Keller Williams Ottawa Realty, Jason@PilonHamilton.com, PilonHamilton.com; 613-845-0271

REGINA

Handout
HandoutThis two-storey split in Regina has13 rooms, including three bedrooms and three bathrooms.

The place: A two-storey split with 13 rooms, including three bedrooms and three bathrooms

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List price: $519,900

Square footage: 2,090

Where: Situated in a well-established, well-treed neighbourhood in southeast Regina, close to schools, parks and shopping. Only a few minutes drive from downtown. Backing green space.

Top features: A spacious family home, built in 1984, featuring many updates and upgrades, including a modern, eat-in kitchen with granite countertops, and heated slate flooring through the kitchen, dining area and hallway. A garden door leads to the deck overlooking a beautifully landscaped yard with patio, pond and flower beds. The over-sized garage is insulated and drywalled.

Taxes: $3,263

Monthly Fees: N/A

Contact: Leanne Tourney, Re/Max Joyce Tourney Realty; 306-791-7666

Handout
HandoutFormer show home with all the bells and whistles: hardwood floors, kitchen island and walk-in pantry, central air, central vac, four bathrooms and a fully finished basement.

SASKATOON

The place: Two-storey, four bedrooms, four bathrooms

List price: $504,900

Square footage: 3,975

Where: Premium Stonebridge location in the south end of the city. New development full of young families, close to shopping, parks and leisure facilities. Quick access to freeway means that downtown Saskatoon is only a short drive away.

Top features: Former show home with all the bells and whistles: hardwood floors, kitchen island and walk-in pantry, central air, central vac, four bathrooms and a fully finished basement. Open concept. Main-floor laundry.

Taxes: $3,975

Monthly Fees: N/A

Contact: Listed by Manning Luo, Re/Max Saskatoon; 306-242-6000; manning@saskatoonrealestates.ca

TORONTO

Handout
HandoutFor around $500,000 in Toronto you can get a two-bedroom townhouse and have to pay $503 per month in fees.

The place: Two-bedroom, two-storey loft townhouse with one bathroom and one parking space

List price: $489,900

Square footage: 806

Taxes: $2,802.21 in 2013

Monthly fee: Maintenance/HOA of $503 per month

Where: Excellent downtown-west location in the trendy Niagara neighbourhood, with transit, cafés and restaurants nearby. Walking distance to the 37-acre, uber-popular family- and pet-friendly Trinity Bellwoods Park.

Top features: Exposed concrete feature walls, floor-to-ceiling windows, custom kitchen, gas hookup for barbecue on its garden patio.

Contact: Brad Lamb, Brad J. Lamb Realty Inc.; 416-368-5262; brad@torontocondos.com

Faith Wilson Group
Faith Wilson GroupThis one-bedroom condo at “The Grafton”, a heritage conversion building in Yaletown in Vancouver goes for $475,000.

VANCOUVER

The place: 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom condo in The Grafton

List price: $483,000

Square footage: 850

Where: Situated in a prime Yaletown neighbourhood in the heart of downtown, with trendy eateries, entertainment, sports venues and shopping on the doorstep, as well as the seawall and myriad transportation options.

Top features: A New York-style home that merges original heritage features — exposed brickwork and wood beams — with a modern open-concept interior. Features include hardwood floors, expansive windows and a functional floor plan, a gas fireplace, custom kitchen, master bedroom with walk-in closet, five-piece ensuite, storage locker and parking stall.

Taxes: $2,000

Monthly fees: $431 per month

Contact: Faith Wilson at Faith Wilson Group; 604-224-5277; toll-free: 1-855-760-6886

WINDSOR

Postmedia News
Postmedia NewsIn Windsor you can get a four-bedroom, house with games room and office above garage, hardwood floors throughout, maple staircase and designer granite kitchen.

The place: Executive two-storey, four bedrooms, master ensuite bathroom, 2.5-car garage. Located in the suburb of Lakeshore

List price: $499,900

Square footage: 3,300

Taxes: $5,200

Where: Situated in a two-year-old subdivision, 20 minutes from downtown Windsor. Just minutes away from four golf courses and Lake St. Clair.

Top features: A games room and office above garage, hardwood floors throughout, maple staircase and designer granite kitchen, large fenced yard, covered porch and fenced, in-ground pool.

Contact: Larry Pickle, Re/Max Preferred; 519-944-5955

Canadian snowbirds’ dream of U.S. vacation home fading fast – Ask a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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The hundreds of thousands of Canadian snowbirds who flock to the United States are being hit by a falling loonie that should see their purchasing of U.S. winter homes start to slow, says a new report.

Vancouver Mortgage BrokerHere’s what $500K buys in Canada’s housing markets: A lake in Edmonton … a condo in Toronto

From four bedrooms in Windsor to one-bedroom in Vancouvercheck out how far $500,000 goes in 8 major markets across Canada

It’s not going to be any sort of collapse, which is good news for Florida, the number one draw of Canadians where 3.5 million of us spend $4.4-billion annually.

“Make no mistake, the depreciation of the Canadian dollar will have an impact on Canadian stays in snowbird destinations such as Florida, but less than one might expect,” says Derek Burleton, deputy chief economist with Toronto-Dominion Bank, in a report.

Mr. Burleton’s real estate remarks are part of a broader report on the impact of a falling loonie on trips to the United States that are worth about $22.3-billion annually to the American economy based on 23.5 million Canadian visits.

For snowbirds looking to buy, TD says affordability has been impacted not just by the decline of the loonie against the greenback, but also increasing U.S. home prices.

Looking at just Florida, TD says the bottom of the market was reached in 2011 and there has been a steady increase in what it calls its Florida House Price Index. The index is up almost 50% over the past three years.

Much of the increase in Canadians buying in Florida — half a million Canadians own property in the Sunshine State — occurred over the past five years because of what TD calls a “60% cheapening” in property prices.

“No matter how you slice it, new purchase activity by Canadian in the U.S. looks set to slow markedly over the next few years,” writes Mr. Burleton.

In addition to a falling loonie and rising home prices, the cost of borrowing has climbed one percentage point in the U.S. over the past year based on 30-year mortgage rates.

Another problem is Canadians tend to look for cheaper homes where inventories have been drying up. More than half of Canadian buyers paid less than US$200,000 where inventories are down 20% in 2013.

Mr. Burleton emphasizes that the decision to seek a snowbird lifestyle is not going to drop dramatically, demographic trends guarantee that. But it could change people’s thought patterns on buying versus renting.

Existing homeowners might be inclined to ride out a downturn in the loonie because their U.S. homes are rising in values. Investors in U.S. real estate will have the upside of revenue coming in the increasingly stronger greenback.

But for the snowbird looking to buy right now, the game might have changed south of the border.

“We see renting becoming an increasingly preferred option,” said Mr. Burleton.
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Canada’s housing starts fell twice as fast as expected, raising concern about GDP growth – Ask a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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Canadian housing starts fell twice as fast as economists expected in January, led by a drop in multiple-unit projects.

Vancouver Mortgage Broker

‘Housing no longer looks to be a source of growth’ for the economy, says CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld.
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Work on new homes fell 3.7% to a 180,248-unit annualized pace, the third straight decline, Ottawa-based Canada Mortgage & Housing Corp. said Monday. Permits for dwellings such as apartments and condominiums fell 6.0% to 102,289 units and single-family homes rose from the lowest since July 2009 in January, gaining 3.4% to 60,869 units.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz expects a “soft landing” for the housing market after consumer spending and record debt accumulation led the world’s 11th economy out of the 2008 global financial crisis. CMHC said Monday’s figures are in line with its prediction that builders will slow new construction to avoid an inventory glut.

“Housing no longer looks to be a source of growth,” for the economy, said Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC World Markets in Toronto, in a note to clients.

The Bank of Canada’s growth outlook calls for increasing exports and business spending to take over from consumers.

“A slower pace of construction activity to start the year is consistent with the wider theme of domestic fatigue that will inevitably put more pressure on net exports to drive the next stage of Canada’s economic recovery,” said Connor McDonald, economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, in a client note.

Canada’s dollar was 0.2% weaker after the report, trading for C$1.1048 per U.S. dollar at 9:14 a.m. in Toronto. One Canadian dollar bought 90.51 U.S. cents

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a decline to 185,000 from the revised December reading of 187,144.

Bloomberg.com

TFSA or RRSP? Here’s how to decide – Consult with Bruce Coleman, Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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NOREEN RASBACH-  The Globe and Mail

Vancouver Mortgage BrokerKuly Gill is every financial planner’s dream. The Calgary lawyer, in his 30s, owns a house, drives an older car and forgoes some annual vacations to save more for retirement. “I live cheap and put everything away,” he says.

His investment strategy is simple: Contribute the full amount allowed each year to a tax-free savings account (TFSA) and any other retirement savings into RRSPs. His portfolio is 100-per-cent equities, mostly blue chip, dividend-paying stocks.

In the TFSA versus RRSP debate, Mr. Gill has made a clear choice – TFSAs first. But as any financial expert will tell you, most Canadians are less certain about which tax-sheltered vehicle to choose if they can’t afford to contribute the maximum allowable amount to both.

Mr. Gill cites the rule used by many financial planners as a rough guideline: If your income (and therefore your tax rate) is greater now than you expect it to be during retirement, go with the RRSP; if it’s lower, go with the TFSA.

“If everything works out as I want it to, I expect to have a lot of income in the future,” Mr. Gill says.

However, for most young people, says David Chilton, author of The Wealthy Barber Returns, that’s an almost impossible guideline. “It involves a lot of guesswork,” he says. Who knows at 30 or 40 years old how much money they will have 25 or 35 years later, or what the tax system will be like decades from now?

Mr. Chilton, not surprisingly, takes a behavioural approach to the decision. If you’re going to put money in a registered retirement savings plan and “blow the refund on something stupid,” then a major advantage of the RRSP – the immediate tax benefit – is lost, he says. Similarly, because you can withdraw money from a TFSA at any time and put it back later, you may be tempted to raid your plan.

“A lot of people think the flexibility [of a TFSA] is an advantage, but I see it as a great disadvantage,” Mr. Chilton says.

Gordon Pape, the author of a slew of books on Canadian retirement planning, says there are other considerations when choosing between an RRSP and a TFSA. If you have a high salary and a blue-chip pension plan, such as a government pension, the TFSA may be the better bet. That’s because the pension, combined with Old Age Security and the Canada Pension Plan, could push your income high enough to prompt clawbacks of the government supports. RRSP withdrawals are considered income; TFSA withdrawals aren’t.

The same principle applies if you have a low income – RRSP withdrawals could affect whether or not you receive the Guaranteed Income Supplement.

However, Mr. Pape says that for most people, RRSPs make the most sense. Most people don’t have larger incomes when they retire, plus they can invest the tax refund they get immediately and benefit in the long-term from compound interest. “You have to look at the magic of compounding – the more years you have for your money to compound in a tax-sheltered environment, the more you’re going to have at the end of the day,” he says.

In the end, it’s the investments you make that matter the most, says Jon Palfrey, the Vancouver-based senior vice-president of Leith Wheeler Investment Counsel Ltd.

TFSAs and RRSPs are tools that can hold a variety of investments, but investors should follow a few important rules: First, he says, avoid any investment that is wildly speculative. “Don’t swing for the fences. You don’t get any benefit from a loss if [the investments] go down. Nothing can be offset.”

Mr. Palfrey’s second rule: Don’t put in cash – or GICs. “If you’re making less than 1 per cent on your GIC, the sheltering benefit is not meaningful.”

There are other investment decisions that apply to both. Mr. Palfrey says that if investors also have non-registered accounts, they should make sure to put bonds in a tax-sheltered account because of their high tax rates.

There are, however, two major differences between the two investment tools. The first involves U.S. stocks: If you hold a dividend-paying U.S. stock in your RRSP, you do not have to pay withholding tax on those dividends, Mr. Palfrey says. You would have to pay the tax (about 15 per cent) if the same stock was in your TFSA.

The second involves an investor’s age. As Mr. Pape points out, “you can’t have an RRSP after the age of 71, but you can have a TFSA for the rest of your life.”

For investors who complain about having to convert RRSPs to RRIFs at age 71 – and then being forced to take out a minimum each year after – TFSAs can be great alternatives.

———–

RRSP vs. TFSA: the basics

Taxes

  • RRSP contributions are tax deductible (which means you get a tax refund), but you pay tax when you withdraw from the RRSP.
  • TFSA contributions are not tax deductible, but withdrawals are tax-free.

Contribution limits

  • For RRSPs, 18 per cent of your previous year’s income, to a maximum of $24,270 in 2014 (less any pension adjustment).
  • For TFSAs, $5,500 in 2014. If you haven’t put money in a TFSA since they were introduced in 2009, your cumulative limit is now $31,000.

Age limits:

  • You can’t make contributions to RRSPs after the year in which you turn 71.
  • No age limits for TFSAs.

Recent changes in Canadian mortgage rates – Consult with Bruce Coleman, Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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TD fourth big bank to quietly reduce some mortgage rates – Ask Bruce Coleman, Vancouver Mortgage Broker,

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TORONTO — The Canadian Press

Another big Canadian bank has lowered some of its mortgage rates slightly after an initial reduction by the Royal Bank over the weekend.

TD Canada Trust (TSX:TD) now has a posted discounted rate of 3.69 per cent for its five-year fixed mortgages, down from the rate of 3.79 per cent that had been in effect since August.

 

The bank has also made changes to several of its other closed rates.

TD said in a an email it reviews its rates on an ongoing basis to “remain competitive and provide our customers with flexible mortgage options and the right rate to meet their individual needs.”

The move comes after RBC lowered its rates on several fixed-rate mortgages over the weekend by 10 basis points, bringing its special offer five-year closed rate to 3.69 per cent.

Bank of Montreal (TSX:BMO) and Scotiabank (TSX:BNS) followed Tuesday.

Scotiabank lowered its discounted five-year closed fixed term mortgage 10 basis points to 3.49 per cent on its website Tuesday, down from 3.59 per cent posted on the site Monday.

BMO, meanwhile, lowered a number of its rates between 10 and 20 basis points, including its discounted five-year fixed rate to 3.69 per cent from 3.89 per cent.

Not the Time for a 10-year Fixed – Consult with Bruce Coleman, Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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OK let’s rephrase that. It’s not the time for a 10-year fixed for well over 90% of Canadianmortgagors.

6a00d8341c74cb53ef01a5112a094d970cThere was a time last year when thespread between 10-year and 5-year fixed rates was below 3/4 of a percentage point. That made even the 10-year scoffers among us rethink our positions. But spreads are now back over 1%. That means 10-year terms simply aren’t worth the interest premium anymore (for all except the most payment sensitive borrowers).

Historically, the odds are stacked against 10-year terms (more on that). But the real turn-off is the fact that 5-year rates would need to climb 2.50% higher by the time a 5-year fixed matured, in order for a 10-year to cost you less.*

That could happen of course, but life is an odds game; the rate risk factors just aren’t as threatening as in the past:

  • Inflation is well managed (in fact, it’s currently below the BoC’s target, which is worrisome, and this won’t be the last time)
  • We have a structural unemployment problem in certain sectors–especially manufacturing
  • The U.S. is now far more energy independent (meaning less exports from Canada)
  • Global outsourcing is picking up momentum…still
  • We’re relying on an overleveraged hyper-rate sensitive consumer
  • and the list could go on…

5-or-10-year-mortgageAgainst this backdrop, some feel that five-year rates may have a hard time rising even 200 basis points in 60 months.

If you’re curious where the professional ball gazers are throwing their darts, TD and Desjardins (two of a handful of firms that publicly publish long-term rate forecasts) see a roughly 2.25 percentage point jump in 5-year government yields by year-end 2018. (Bond yields lead long-term fixed rates.)

But interestingly, Desjardins projects just a 1.46 bps jump in 5-year mortgage rates during that same period (which implies spread compression between mortgage rates and funding costs).

In any event, if Vegas posted 2.50% as the over/under for how high 5-year rates would go in 60 months, well-qualified Canadians would be smart to bet on the under.


* Assumes a 25-year amortization and equal payments (i.e., it assumes you’ll make a 10-year fixed payment on the 5-year fixed mortgage)


By Robert McLister, Editor, CanadianMortgageTrends.com

Canadians saving more, but are they making the most of their savings? – Ask Bruce Coleman, Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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Vancouver Mortgage BrokerRecent data indicate that Canadians are saving more. Statistics Canada reports that the Household Savings Rate is currently 5.4%, a 0.4% increase from the previous year. Likewise, a recent BMO Bank of Montreal study found that 48% of Canadians are now investing in Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs), a 23% increase from 2012.

It’s good that Canadians are saving but unfortunately too few are making the most of it. Part of the problem is that many remain puzzled by the various investment vehicles available, and much of the confusion lays in TFSAs.

The BMO study found that only 11% of Canadians can identify eligible TFSA investments. And, only 19% understand the annual contribution limit; which might explain why one in ten TFSA holders has over-contributed since inception. Investors should spend a bit of time learning the rules so they can take full advantage of this very useful investment vehicle.

TFSAs are available to Canadian residents 18 years of age or older. They can save up to $5,500 per year in cash and investments, and unused contribution room can be carried forward indefinitely. Withdrawals can be made anytime in any amount, without being taxed, and can be fully re-contributed the following calendar year. It’s important to remember that re-contributions in the same calendar year count against contribution room and could cause over-contributing, which the Canada Revenue Agency penalizes.

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TFSAs can hold investments such as mutual funds, stocks, bonds, and GICs. However many investors don’t realize this, perhaps confused by the words “Savings Account,” and instead use their TFSAs to hold cash. BMO says cash is the most common component held in TFSAs, at 57%. mutual funds weigh in at 25%, followed by guaranteed investment certificates at 23%, stocks at 14%, and exchange traded funds at 5%.

The cash earns tax-free interest but the tax advantage is minimal in a low rate environment. TFSAs are best used for investments offering better growth potential. With income and capital gains accumulating tax-free, they are suitable for investments that otherwise generate greater total tax payable if held in a non-registered portfolio.

For instance, an investor who contributed $5,500 to a TFSA last year, with the full amount invested in an exchange-traded fund tracking the U.S., would be up by about 25%. The tax-free profit would be $1,375. Compare this to the investor who left the contribution in cash generating 1.50% and earning only $82.50.

Although 25% profit is an exceptional year, the tax-free advantage holds true even at lower return levels. Consider an investor who puts $5,000 into a TFSA at the beginning of every year for the next 20 years, invested in a product generating a 6% gain per year. After 20 years, the TFSA would be worth $194,964. In comparison, if the investment was made in a non-registered account and taxed at a marginal rate of 32%, the balance would be $156,258. The $38,706 difference speaks for itself.

Since 2013 the TFSA contribution limits are $5,500 per year, up from $5,000 per year from 2009 through 2012. An investor who has never contributed to a TFSA, and has been eligible to do so since 2009, can invest up to $31,000 this year.

Kim Inglis is an investment advisor & portfolio manager with Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management, a division of Canaccord Genuity Corp. www.reynoldsinglis.ca.


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