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No collapse in Canada’s condo market, but not much growth either – Consult with a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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condoThe report is sponsored by Canada’s largest private mortgage default insurer but it shows a relatively flat condo market in Canada’s eight largest market for high rises.

Leaving the city (and the big mortgage) behind

Many couples, stunned by the value of their homes in Canadian urban centers like Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver, are pondering trading city life for opportunities to cut costs in the suburbs or beyond. Read on

Genworth Canada and the Conference Board of Canada forecast prices rising in 2014 in all eight markets surveyed but barely ahead of inflation. Sales will also be positive but even the most robust market, Quebec City, will only see a 4% increase in resale condo activity.

“Although many commentators view the Canadian condominium market as an overvalued bubble about to burst, we think it is only slightly overheated and enjoys sound economic underpinnings,” said Robin Wiebe, senior economist at the Centre for Municipal Studies at The Conference Board of Canada, in the release. “As such, markets are likely to cool gently. To potential homebuyers, monthly mortgage payments, rather than house prices, are what matter and these should remain moderate.”

The report says all of the cities are expected to have employment and population growth in 2014. Those gains and continued low interest rates are cited as factors supporting the condo market, along with an aging population of empty nesters and cash-poor first-time buyers.

“With a variety of price points and central locations, condominiums remain an attractive and affordable option for those who want to be close to all that urban life has to offer, ” said Brian Hurley, chief executive of Genworth Canada, in the release. “For first-time buyers, well-maintained buildings with reasonable maintenance fees provide that balance between responsible debt investment and homeownership.”

Prices are forecast to pick up in 2015 but even the strongest market in Victoria will only see 4% price gains. Toronto is forecast to be the weakest market by 2015 with only a 1.7% price gain.

The report says there were price gains in six markets it surveyed in 2013 except Montreal, where condominium values dropped by 1.2%, and Ottawa which saw a 3.6% price decline.

For 2014, Calgary is expected to see the largest gains in price with the forecast for a 3.2% increase.
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If you want to have a mortgage in retirement, be prepared to make some big sacrifices – Ask a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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retireMaybe we shouldn’t be all that surprised that mortgages based on a 25-year payment schedule are now part of our retirement picture.

Here’s why paying off your mortgage isn’t always the best idea

Pay that mortgage off? Why would you bother, especially if that money could be invested elsewhere at a higher rate? Mortgage broker Calum Ross says there is an opportunity to invest in today’s market using the money you would otherwise earmark for your mortgage. Keep reading.

It could be worse. Amortizations were as high as 40 years before former finance minister Jim Flaherty limited the length of loans with government-backed mortgage insurance. But even at 25 years, that means holding debt in retirement if you take on a new mortgage passed age 40 which is increasingly common in Canada.

Most planners seem to think it is a disaster waiting to happen because seniors don’t usually have the income in retirement to support debt repayment and that means major lifestyle changes.

Will Dunning, chief economist with the Canadian Associated of Accredited Mortgage Professionals, says among homeowners 65 years or older, 35% have a mortgage. Among those with a mortgage, the average loan-to-value ratio is 33%.

“I have a feeling a lot [of cases] of the mortgages in retirement are they’ve refinanced for some purpose, to finance a kid’s wedding or to lend money to a kid to pay for a down payment,” says Mr. Dunning.

I’m totally against it

Lise Andreana, a certified financial planner based in Niagara-on-the-Lake who counts many seniors among her clients, says going into retirement with debt is fraught with challenges.

“I’m totally against it,” says Ms. Andreana about taking a mortgage into your retirement. “You’ve got to make payments that will be coming out of retirement income.”

In situations where people do still have a mortgage going into retirement, it often proves a major problem, she says.

“One of my clients is drawing down registered funds over and above what would normally be required [to live off],” says the CFP. “My advice for the past five years has been ‘you need to downsize, you need to sell that house because you are going to run out of money.’ Getting them to do it? That’s their decision.”

If you want to have a mortgage in retirement, be prepared to make some other sacrifice.

“I have one client and she wanted to sent a bouquet of roses to a friend in the hospital. I said ‘you can’t afford, send a card’,” says Ms. Andreana, who thinks people should pay off their mortgage by age 50 so they can ramp up their savings for 10-15 years.

Toronto mortgage broker Paul Roberts says lenders are not keen on giving seniors mortgages because of the ramifications if they can’t pay. “You never want to go power-of-sale on an older person,” says Ms. Roberts.

She’s done mortgages for people in their 70s before and says the No. 1 reason she sees older people taking on debt is to help out their kids.

“It’s so expensive for homebuyers or people in their 30s or 40s to buy a house, compared to parents or grandparents, so a lot of times you’ll find the kids being helped out,” says Ms. Roberts. “Sometimes to help with the downpayment they are doing a financing on their own house.”

A survey from Bank of Montreal confirms the trend of giving money to children. BMO says 30% of first-timer home buyers expect parents or family to assist then in buying a home. In Vancouver’s pricey market, 40% expect help.

It’s not the first study to suggest the trend but there is no data on how these parents are funding the gift.

AP Photo/Tony Dejak, File
AP Photo/Tony Dejak, FileBMO says 30% of first-timer home buyers expect parents or family to assist then in buying a home.

“Sometimes, they are really just giving a pre-inhertance, they are going to give the money to the kids anyway so they give it to them early so they can enjoy it now,” said Ms. Roberts.

Jeffrey Schwartz, executive director of Consolidated Credit Counselling Services of Canada Inc., says not all senior mortgages are because of generosity.

“People are living longer, right of the gate they need more money to live. Many seniors are living on fixed income. But do their spending habits match their income?” says Mr. Schwartz. “The result is seniors are taking mortgages into retirement and, in many cases, it is becoming the new norm. In some cases they are even adding [debt].”

More worrisome is that if interest rates ever raise, many of these seniors will be squeezed further at a point in their lives when they can’t handle larger interest payments. “It could send them into a tailspin,” says Mr. Schwartz.

There is increasing evidence that seniors are getting themselves in more debt trouble.

Equifax Canada Inc. said last year that seniors led the pack among age groups when it came to ramping up their debt. Seniors make up about 8% of all bankruptcies, up from 6% five years ago, the ratings agency said at the time.

It’s not a huge cause for alarm because only 0.05% of all senior debt ends up in bankruptcy.

It’s a little bit scary, they are stretching their standard of living

Still making sure you have enough left over to has to be top priority for seniors, said Fred Vettese, chief actuary for Morneau Shepell and co-author of The Real Retirement, who has bucked the general thinking that you need 70% of your income for your retirement years.

“You don’t need that 70% because you are paying off a mortgage when you are actively employed,” said Mr. Vettese, adding that doesn’t hold true if you still have a mortgage in retirement.

But even if you do have enough money from your RRSP to pay off a mortgage, Mr. Vettese wonders why you would want to do it. Your RRSP is likely going to be invested in conservative instruments like bonds that pay a lower yield than the mortgage you are taking out.

“It just doesn’t make sense,” he says.

About the only way a mortgage might make sense is if you are still working after 65. “If you are still making employment income, that’s how they would justify it,” said Mr. Vettese, adding there is more and more evidence people are working later in life.

Even so, he wonders whether people should really be taking on more debt at such a late stage in life.

“It’s a little bit scary, they are stretching their standard of living, just going for more than they can afford,” says Mr. Vettese.

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Could CMHC change its ‘one-size fits all’ mortgage insurance to reflect real risk? – Ask a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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Vancouver Mortgage BrokerBuy a house with less than a 20% down payment and you have to get mortgage default insurance. There’s no choice. The rules are dictated by Ottawa and protect the banks, in the event you default.

Why the mortgage rate wars can rage more freely

Why did Bank of Montreal risk a (verbal) slap from Finance Minister Joe Oliver for daring to chop its five-year mortgage rate below 3%?

Because they knew the mortgage war is going to be different this time.
The rate you’ll be charged bears very little relation to your individual risk. You have a fantastic job, a great credit history and live in a part of the country where the housing market is on solid footing? Forget it, you’re paying the same premium as anyone else and it’s mostly based on your downpayment.

“The mortgage insurance product, irrespective of who sells it, is the same product. There is less product differentiation that there is among choices of 89 octane unleaded gasoline,” says Finn Poschmann, vice-president of research of the C.D. Howe Institute. “In gasoline, at least you can choose among ethanol content levels and detergents. Not so with mortgage insurance.”

Starting on May 1 consumers will pay even more for this insurance which provides a backstop to the entire Canadian economy given Ottawa is on the hook for close to the $1-trillion in mortgages it guarantees.

But this type of pricing could all change in the future. Evan Siddall, a former investment banker who was installed as president and chief executive of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. in December has been asked about the possibility of a risk-based method of assessing mortgage default insurance.

Sources say the new CEO has told people he doesn’t disagree with the principal of risk-based insurance.

CMHC wouldn’t offer any specific comment. “CMHC’s President has been consulting with a broad range of housing stakeholders across Canada over the past three months in order to gather information and perspectives on several different topics, including mortgage loan insurance,” a spokesperson, said in an email.

Related
Ottawa given ‘heads up’ before BMO mortgage rate cut, says monitoring market closely
Here’s why paying off your mortgage isn’t always the best idea
It would be a monumental change for the Crown corporation and might fit with the more business-like approach the department of finance seems to be demanding from CMHC. Former Finance Minister Jim Flaherty openly talked about privatizing the organization last year.

The new Finance Minister Joe Oliver doesn’t seem to be ruling out anything when it comes to the mortgage market these days. “The government is gradually reducing its involvement in the mortgage market,” he said, in response to the latest rate battle raging among the banks.

Last year, Mr. Flaherty put CMHC under the control of the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, to keep it more tightly under the thumb of finance.

CMHC has already begun overhauling its board with a more Bay St. flavour with the new chairman Robert Kelly, a former Wall Street CEO. One of the first major acts of new management was to increase the fees, something it said it needed to do to improve capital targets and reduce taxpayer exposure to the market.

With 5% down, the current cost of insurance is 2.75% of the value of your mortgage. That premium rises to 3.15% next month. CMHC controls a majority of the the market and its only two private competitors followed almost immediately with the exact same spike in rates.

“It’s a one-size fits all model,” said Winsor Macdonell, general counsel with Genworth Canada, the largest private competitor in the marketplace.

Changing the model would be a potentially controversial measure that would leave mortgage insurance closer to the more traditional approach to insurance when it comes to assessing risk.

No one in the life insurance industry would ever give the same rate to a non-smoker as a smoker. Car insurers will charge someone in small town Ontario a much lower rate than say someone in Toronto.

It’s not without precedent. Australia no longer has mandatory government mortgage insurance but a market has developed for the product privately anyway, says Mr. Poschmann. In the United States, there are rates based on your state and within that state pricing you pay a premium based on your credit score.

It’s a one-size fits all model
“I think the Canadian model is partly [the way it is] because it’s historic,” says Mr. Macdonell. “We looked at this 10 years ago because finance was considering getting rid of the mandatory requirement for mortgage insurance.”

One of the biggest political problems for risk-adjusted based pricing in Canada would be the difference in pricing for people in rural areas versus urban areas. “It’s harder to sell a home in a rural area and that by itself would drive your price up,” he says, adding the current model makes Genworth’s portfolio stronger because it spreads risk more evenly.

The government has an interest in keeping that portfolio strong, given that in the event Genworth fails Ottawa is on the hook for 90% of the dollar value of the loans the private insurer guarantees for banks. The government backs 100% of loans insured by CMHC.

One of the reasons the banks are said to like the current system is they don’t want an increase in market share by private players because of that 10 percentage point gap. During the financial crisis in 2008, the banks started driving more business to CMHC because of that gap and concerns over credit. The banks want private insurers there for competition but only to a point.

The current system does mean some consumers are subsidizing others by paying a higher rate than they would in a free market. “In a reconfigured marketplace you would likely would have more variation. Credit scores would be one axis, so would the strength of the market and the ability to turn over properties. And the product itself could be different,” says Mr. Poschmann.

Vince Gaetano, a mortgage broker with monstermortgage.ca, says nothing illustrates the absurdity of the market more today than the fact that people with mortgage insurance and low down payments actually get cheaper rates than people with large down payments without insurance.

He can get a consumer with 5% down a mortgage rate of 2.84%, if they lock in that rate on a closed mortgage for five years. Put more than 20% down and the best he can do is 2.99% for the same mortgage because it has no government backing.

Still, he questions what the incentive will be to change the system — not because the banks like the current system but also due to the lack of data to access individual risk.

“Sure [changing the system] make sense. I just don’t think they’ll be able to trust the data,” says Mr. Gaetano, about assessing risk. “There are having a hard time trying to come up with a matrix to assess risk. It’s very difficult.”

For that reason, while many people think a change is coming from CMHC, it could take years to implement.

Five mortgage market truths, like you can do better than 2.99% – Ask a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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ROB CARRICK- THE GLOBE AND MAIL

mortgage-ratesHere are five things you need to know about the mortgage market as the spring home-buying season gets going:

1. That 2.99 per cent Bank of Montreal five-year mortgage isn’t quite as good as it sounds.

BMO’s recent move to bring its rate below the psychologically significant 3-per-cent mark for fixed-rate five-year mortgages is being treated as a big deal because a similar move a year ago provoked then-finance minister Jim Flaherty to admonish the bank. Joe Oliver, Mr. Flaherty’s successor, is taking a more laissez-faire attitude.

What BMO is offering until April 17 is a competitive rate in a mortgage with uncompetitive terms. Most importantly, you can’t break this mortgage before it comes up for renewal in five years unless you sell the property, refinance with BMO or do an early renewal into another BMO product. All the usual prepayment penalties would apply in these situations. Veteran mortgage broker Vince Gaetano’s summary: “You’re handcuffed.”

Other issues:

-BMO will hold the rate for 90 days, compared with 120 days at some other lenders.

-You can prepay 10 per cent of the mortgage annually without penalty and increase your payment by 10 per cent a year; 20 per cent is the usual standard for both types of payment increase.

-The skip-a-payment option – a bad idea, admittedly – is not available.

-The maximum amortization period is 25 years; you can typically go up to 30 years if you have a down payment of 20 per cent or more.

2. You can do better than 2.99 per cent.

Mr. Gaetano said late last week that he had a 2.84-per-cent rate on five-year fixed mortgages, but it only applied to clients who had down payments of less than 20 per cent and thus required mortgage default insurance.

The RateSpy.com website confirmed this rate from Mr. Gaetano’s firm, Monster Mortgage, while also showing competing brokers and credit unions with rates in the range of 2.83 per cent to 2.94 per cent. Some other rate comparison sites to try includeRateSupermarket.caRateHub.ca and LowestRates.ca.

3. We will see wide open rate competition this spring.

“I think there will be a full-scale rate war with some mortgage brokers,” said Bruce Joseph, a broker with Anthem Mortgage Group in Barrie, Ont. “We’ve got a huge amount of competition in the market. The market is quite saturated with realtors and brokers.”

Mr. Joseph wonders whether we’ll see more of a practice called “mortgage rate buydowns,” where brokers sacrifice some of their compensation from selling a mortgage in order to get a lower rate for the client. He said some brokerage firms have been aggressive users of buydowns to build sales volume.

Borrowers, there’s nothing to stop you from asking for a rate buydown. You just have to recognize that less compensation for a broker may mean less advice and hand-holding.

4. Variable-rate mortgages are looking good.

Rates on variable-rate mortgages are based on the major banks’ prime lending rate, which has been stuck at 3 per cent since September, 2010, minus a discount. Mr. Gaetano said discounts have widened out to 0.6 percentage points or more from roughly half that level about eight months ago, and that means a variable rate around 2.4 per cent.

His preference for variable-rate mortgages over the fixed-rate alternative right now is based both on the discounts being offered, and his interest rate outlook. “I don’t think rates are going anywhere soon, and getting a variable in the prime minus 0.60 range give you a considerable advantage in hammering down a mortgage.”

That said, many of Mr. Gaetano’s first-time home buyer clients are going with five-year fixed-rate mortgages, which is smart. In today’s expensive housing market, it makes good sense to buy yourself a five-year period to find your financial equilibrium as a homeowner without the risk that your payments will rise.

5. The banks will crush you if you want to break your mortgage.

The penalties that the big banks charge to break a mortgage before it comes up for renewal are abusive. They’re a far more deserving target for the federal finance minister than lenders aggressively undercutting each other on mortgage rates.

Get the lowdown on bank mortgage penalties in this column I wrote not too long ago. If there’s any chance you might have to break your mortgage – brokers say this is by no means unusual – then consider using a non-big bank lender with a lighter touch on penalties. These same lenders are often good on rates, too.

Follow me on Twitter: @rcarrick

——

Why low mortgage rates matter

Even small differences in payments can add up.

Assumptions

-you’re buying a house at the average national price in February of $406,372

-you have a 5 per cent down payment

-CMHC mortgage insurance costs are added to your principal

(table source: RateSpy.com, Canequity.com)

Mortgage Example Bi-weekly accelerated payment Total Payments Over Five Years
Five-Year Fixed
2.84 per cent (best rate found online) $922.41 $119,913
2.99 per cent (BMO’s special offer) $937.60 $121,888
3.39 per cent (another bank’s best special offer) $978.75 $127,237
Variable rate
2.29 per cent (prime minus 0.71; best rate found online) $867.87 $112,823
2.40 per cent (prime minus 0.6; a widely available discount) $878.63 $114,222
2.55 per cent (prime minus 0.45; discounted bank rate) $893.42 $116,145

 

Mortgage Freedom on the Horizon for Some Canadians: Scotiabank Study – Ask a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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Scotiabank Offers Advice on How to Become Mortgage-Free Faster

mortgage.jpeg.size.xxlarge.promoTORONTO, ON–(Marketwired – April 01, 2014) – The dream of mortgage freedom is less than 10 years away for 37% of Canadian mortgage holders, according to Scotiabank’s Mortgage Landscape Study. More than two-thirds (68%) of mortgage holders have taken steps to pay off their mortgage faster, including increasing the frequency of regular payments (39%), increasing regular payment amounts (25%), and making additional lump sum payments (24%).

Of mortgage holders who agree that being mortgage-free faster is important (80%), the top cited reasons are to have more disposable income (30%), to pay off debt or to pay less interest (both 17%), and to save for retirement (11%).

Additional findings:

  • Just over one-half of mortgage holders (54%) said they are able to make additional mortgage payments, with 34% of those making payments whenever they can afford it, 19% making additional payments annually and 27% semi-annually or more frequent payments.
  • Among the 38% of mortgage holders who say they are not able to make additional payments over and above their regular payments, indicate that affordability (64%) and competing priorities (54%) are key challenges to mortgage freedom.
  • 16% of mortgage holders indicated that they cannot afford any increase in their current payments.

Quote:

“For many, the mortgage is their single biggest debt and it may seem overwhelming,” says David Stafford, Managing Director of Real Estate Secured Lending at Scotiabank. “It’s important for mortgage holders to know that small changes can make a big difference in the total cost of borrowing over the life of the mortgage. While periodic lump sums and even switching to bi-weekly payments are great options, increasing your payments by small amounts, like an extra $20 payment per month, can make a big difference without impacting your lifestyle.”

Four ways to become mortgage-free faster:

In addition to the steps below, current mortgage holders can test the Mortgage-Free Faster Calculator to help identify small changes they can make towards paying off their mortgages faster and build savings for other things like travel, education or retirement.

  1. Switch from monthly to weekly or bi-weekly payments. By increasing the frequency of payments, you will make one extra monthly payment per year, which is directed to reducing the principal balance of your mortgage. The faster you pay off your mortgage, the more money you’ll save in interest costs and you will be mortgage free years ahead of schedule.
  1. Increase your payments. Increasing your mortgage payments by small amounts every year, even by 2%, can help you pay off your mortgage sooner and may have a big impact on what you pay in interest over the long term.
  1. Make lump-sum payments. Take advantage of your pre-payment option and use your tax refund or annual bonus to make lump-sum payments. Choose to pre-pay up to 15% of the original principal amount of your mortgage any time during each year of the term.
  1. Diversify your mortgage by mixing short and long term mortgages and/or fixed and variable rates. Base your total mortgage payment on what it would be based on the highest rate of all the mortgage components. You get the advantage of lower interest rates on some portion of your mortgage, while paying it off sooner at the same time.

About the polling data
For this survey, TNS Canada conducted online interviews among 500 mortgage holders and 260 mortgage intenders aged 21 years or older. Mortgage holders were defined as property owners with a mortgage (either on primary or secondary residence or income property), who are not intending to get a new mortgage in next 12 months. Mortgage intenders were defined as consumers in the market for a mortgage in the next 12 months. In tabulation, data was weighted to be reflective of the distribution of mortgage holders and intenders by region, gender, and age, using a combination of results from Statistics Canada and from the 2012 Scotiabank ‘Mega Poll’. The survey was conducted between December 19 and 30, 2013.

About Scotiabank 
Scotiabank is a leading financial services provider in over 55 countries and Canada’s most international bank. Through our team of more than 83,000 employees, Scotiabank and its affiliates offer a broad range of products and services, including personal and commercial banking, wealth management, corporate and investment banking to over 21 million customers. With assets of $783 billion (as at January 31, 2014), Scotiabank trades on the Toronto (TSXBNS) and New York Exchanges (NYSE: BNS). Scotiabank distributes the Bank’s media releases using Marketwired. For more information please visit www.scotiabank.com.

BACKGROUND

REGIONAL BREAKOUTS

Time Horizon to be Mortgage Free

Total Atlantic Quebec Ontario West
Less than 1 year 2% 1% 1% 3% 2%
1 to 3 years 6% 2% 5% 6% 6%
4 to 5 years 7% 6% 7% 5% 9%
6 to 10 years 22% 32% 21% 22% 19%
11 to 20 years 39% 33% 41% 42% 36%
21 years or more 24% 26% 25% 21% 28%

Top reasons to be mortgage free faster

Total Atlantic Quebec Ontario West
Have more disposable income 30% 34% 24% 33% 31%
To get rid of debt/debt free 17% 9% 22% 13% 19%
Can pay less/low interest 17% 7% 33% 9% 19%
Able to save for retirement 11% 22% 2% 13% 12%
Save money/more money 10% 3% 7% 14% 9%

Ability to make additional mortgage payments

Total Atlantic Quebec Ontario West
Yes 54% 53% 57% 54% 52%
No 38% 39% 31% 39% 40%
Don’t know 8% 9% 11% 7% 8%

Steps taken to pay off mortgage sooner
(in additional to regular payments)

Total Atlantic Quebec Ontario West
Increased frequency of regular payments 39% 43% 44% 36% 37%
Increased amount of regular payments 25% 13% 26% 27% 24%
Made additional lump sum payment(s) 24% 25% 18% 23% 30%
Renegotiated for a lower mortgage rate 19% 12% 16% 21% 20%
Other 2% 4% 2%
None of the above 32% 39% 23% 34% 36%

Reasons for not making additional mortgage payments

Total Atlantic Quebec Ontario West
Do not have enough money to do so 64% 42% 50% 72% 67%
Have other debts to pay off first 42% 46% 27% 40% 50%
Need the money for other priorities 27% 23% 43% 21% 27%
Current payment is manageable 18% 13% 39% 18% 9%
Haven’t had the mortgage very long 16% 10% 29% 7% 21%
Never thought about it before 6% 22% 8% 4% 4%

Leaving the city (and the big mortgage) behind – Ask a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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Many couples, stunned by the value of their homes in Canadian urban centers like Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver, are pondering trading city life for opportunities to cut costs in the suburbs or beyond.

Slightly more than three years ago, I sat down with my wife after a lousy commute and discussed why we were still in Toronto.

Sure, she had a good job in the city, but I was freelance, and with two young children in elementary school, we pondered whether there were other options.

The positives were clear — if we left the city it would change our financial position dramatically. We could trade our Scarborough rebuild in an up-and-coming part of the city for a house in the best area of a city like London, Ont., where we both went to school.

And the best part? We could buy that house in London, with more room in a better area for about 60% of the value of our Scarborough home, which saw its price skyrocket in the seven years we owned it.

It wasn’t that tough a decision; in 2012 we sold our house, packed a moving truck and rolled down the 401 to London.

It is a scenario that is becoming increasingly common — couples, stunned by the value of their homes in Canadian urban centers like Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver, are pondering trading city life for opportunities to cut costs in the suburbs or beyond.

Freelance writer Peter Robinson and his wife Jody, an elementary teacher, faced this scenario in 2010. The couple, who owned a small house on Toronto’s west side, started considering how they’d move forward. With an expanding family, a bigger house was a necessity. But the price of a larger home was daunting and they started considering their options.

“I could work from anywhere and Jody was willing to make a commute to her school in Brampton,” says Mr. Robinson. “She decided she’d bite the bullet and spend an extra five hours a week commuting if we moved.”

Robinson says the couple wasn’t enjoying the benefits of Toronto in the way they were prior to having children, a common theme among young families considering a move from the city.

“Some people leave the city because they hate it,” says Mr. Robinson. “That wasn’t our case, though the traffic is always bad.”

The couple listed their 1,300 square foot home for $500,000, up $140,000 from when they purchased it a few years previous, and started looking in Barrie, about an hour’s drive north of Toronto. They were able to buy a house in Barrie for $385,000 and double their square footage within walking distance to a nearby school.

“We moved to the quintessential upper middle-class neighborhood,” says Mr. Robinson, who grew up in Barrie. “It takes a mental leap to move if you grew up here. But people in the city don’t realize how good life can be in the suburbs.”

Many moves are driven by the equity couples have in their homes. Anne Carbert, a career counselor, moved to Toronto in 1996. Ms. Carbert, along with her partner, Don, a radio broadcaster and writer, started considering leaving their Riverdale home largely based on the appreciation of its value.

“The goal was ‘let’s get out from under the city mortgage when we have the opportunity,’” she says. The couple moved to Stratford, Ont., and are currently renting while they consider real estate opportunities.

One thing is clear, they expect to be able to find exactly what they want for less than half the price of their $800,000 Toronto home.

Ryan Tracy, who taught at Durham College while living in Whitby, saw real estate prices as an opportunity to make a change in his career. Along with his wife and two small children, Mr. Tracy, 31, decided to pursue a job in Miramichi, N.B., as the general manager of a semi-private golf club.

“We were really sick of the rat race,” says Mr. Tracy, whose wife, Amanda-Lee Cassidy, has a job with Scotiabank. “We wanted to follow the opportunity and the notion of having a house outside of a city really appealed to us.”

The couple has been searching for property near Miramichi, a location in stark contrast to their current situation in the Toronto suburb of Whitby, where they have a 1,800 square foot home on a small lot.

“We can use our house as an asset, which you can’t always say,” says Mr. Tracy. “The notion of selling our home and buying a home and having no mortgage, that’s quite something. They say the majority of people in the city will still have a mortgage well past 60.”

Mr. Tracy and his family will spend some time in housing supplied by his workplace while they look to purchase their home.
“It is such a big difference than living in the GTA,” he says. “Most lots [in Miramichi] are an acre and you can get them for $200,000.”

Like many who have made the move out of one of Canada’s big cities, I don’t regret it. Yes, property taxes are higher here, something that shocks my Toronto friends. And I certainly make the drive into the city more frequently than I’d like, though I can try to find off-peak times to battle traffic.

But we also traded up in many ways, moving from a mid-price area of old Scarborough, full of post-WWII bungalows, to a cul-de-sac near a private golf course.

And many young families who leave large urban areas find cost savings in areas like daycare, which, for two children, cost more than our mortgage when we were in Toronto.

The biggest concern many have when leaving is how they’d ever afford to return if work necessitated it.

“I don’t know how we’d do it,” says Mr. Robinson.

Neither do I. And thankfully, for the foreseeable future at least, it isn’t something I need to consider.

More self-employed hitting mortgage wall because of recent rule changes – Ask a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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78631848For years, most of Marg Green’s self-employed clients could count on getting a mortgage on the strength of their credit score, and on their word that they were earning enough from their business to repay the loan.

These days, because of rules brought in almost two years ago by the regulator of the country’s chartered banks, borrowing money to buy a home has become harder for many of the country’s 2.75 million self-employed workers – a group that, according to Statistics Canada, has a higher median net worth than paid employees.

“We went through years and years when my clients who were self-employed could get a mortgage if their credit score was 680 or higher, with next to no documentation,” says Ms. Green, director and broker at Concierge Mortgage Group, based in Mississauga. “Today I’ve got clients going in to their bank for mortgage refinancing and they’re shocked because suddenly they’re no longer approvable.”

In the summer of 2012, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions introduced Guideline B-20, which required federally regulated banks to tighten their processes for approving mortgages and home equity lines of credit. As part of B-20, banks must now look more closely at incomes before approving a mortgage application.

This presents a problem for self-employed workers, who typically lower their taxable income by maximizing business expenses and personal deductions. Because of the discrepancy between what’s on their tax return and how much money they actually earn, self-employed workers have typically obtained their mortgage through “stated income” applications, which required a signed income declaration and proof of self-employment such as a business registration number or articles of incorporation.

Today, self-employed workers can still apply for a stated income mortgage at some banks, but under B-20 they can borrow only 65 per cent of the purchase value – 10 per cent less than what was allowed before B-20 – without requiring default insurance from Canada Mortgage Housing Corp., Genworth Canada or Canada Guaranty.

“If you have less than 35-per-cent down payment, your mortgage now has to be insured, and insurers have specific guidelines that you need to meet,” says Ms. Green. “For example, CMHC will allow a stated income application as long as you have been self-employed for less than three years. More than three years and you have to qualify according to your net taxable income.”

So what can self-employed workers do to improve their chances of qualifying for the mortgage they need, on terms that work for them?

Jeff Brown, vice-president for delivery initiatives and business integration at Toronto-based Meridian Credit Union, says coming in with complete and current financial and tax documents is critical. Meridian usually asks for the latest notice of assessment from Canada Revenue Agency and financial statements from the past two years.

“We may also ask to see bank statements to show regular income going into your bank account,” says Mr. Brown.

Raza Hasan, senior vice-president for retail lending and wealth-management risk management at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, says self-employed borrowers need to make sure they are up-to-date with income and sales tax returns, and that they don’t owe taxes.

They also need to be ready to explain their business.

“It’s very important that you be able to discuss the details of your business – your income, expenses, at what point in time you will break even, your business milestones,” Mr. Hasan says. “Then we can look at that and find the right solution for you.”

The more information a bank has, the better it can help self-employed borrowers qualify for the mortgage they want, says Ms. Green, whose client base is made up largely of self-employed workers.

“Certain lenders allow add backs of things like car expenses, capital cost allowance or housing expenses,” Ms. Green says. “These add backs then enable the applicant to qualify for what they want to buy.”

Some lenders take a different approach to increase the mortgage eligibility of self-employed workers. Vancity Credit Union in Vancouver, for one, adds 15 per cent to reported income and will boost the percentage if the self-employed borrower provides financial statements showing deducted business expenses totalled more than 15 per cent.

Ms. Green notes that credit unions are not affected by B-20 and many still extend a mortgage of up to 80 per cent of purchase value to stated-income applicants without the need for default insurance.

For sole proprietors or owners of an unincorporated business, making the leap to incorporation could also help, says Jeff Hull, senior financial adviser at Manulife Securities Inc.

“Most banks prefer salary, and if you have a corporation you can pay yourself a salary,” he says. “That may make it easier for a self-employed individual to qualify for a mortgage.”

Incorporating could also reduce tax rates and allow the business owner to collect a higher salary or dividend payout, Mr. Hull adds.

What bubble? Canadians have their mortgage covered, study shows – Consult with a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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A new Conference Board of Canada study says there’s no housing bubble about to burst and maintains Canadian are having no trouble handling their debt even as it sits close to record levels.

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The Ottawa-based group points out that mortgage arrears are actually going down in just about every market across the country — making a U.S.-style meltdown unlikely. The percentage of mortgages in arrears is well under 1% in Canada.

“A relatively low proportion of arrears is likely to persist, since national employment is growing, albeit slowly, and interest rates are not forecast to spike,” says the Conference Board in its report titled Bubble Fears Overblown.

The report says the market will cool but it will happen “gently” and cites mortgage costs, not just home prices, as the principal determining factor for the market for future buyers.

“We believe that the more prudent mortgage underwriting in Canada than in the United States, headlined by the very small number of subprime loans here, has prevented the stockpiling of high-risk mortgages by lenders,” states the report.

Others argue the Canadian market bears striking similarity to the U.S. market.

“It’s a lagging indicator,” says David Madani, an economist with Capital Economics, about mortgage arrears. He says the arrears come when the market starts to fail. “The first sign of trouble in the U.S. was declining home sales, then a year later prices fell and then people started missing payments.”

Much has been made of Canada’s tighter loan standards with none of the NINJA loans — no income, no job, no appraisal — that were found in the U.S.

Still, Canadians are holding onto records amount of debt. Statistics Canada said debt to disposal income went down slightly during the fourth quarter of 2013 but at 164% it remains very close to an all-time high.

“It’s an extraordinary level next to household income and interest rates don’t have to spike,” said Mr. Madani. “Even if they go up moderately, it can have big impact on affordability.”

With little demand from new buyers, prices would ultimately sink and leave people vulnerable as they try to renew mortgages.

The Conference Board notes that many U.S. states have non-recourse home loans, meaning banks cannot go after other assets from consumers who walk away from homes. That protection doesn’t exist in most Canadian markets.

Mr. Madani said that would be a non-factor for recent buyers who have few other assets and no reason to stay with a mortgage that is under water. “That’s what is called a strategic default,” says the economist, noting many consumers in that scenario would be willing to face the credit challenges that come post-bankruptcy if their home price collapses.

Vince Gaetano, a mortgage broker with monstermortgage.ca, says all the mortgage rule changes that have come from Ottawa for anyone buying a home with mortgage default insurance have made it tougher to buy in this market.

“There are not as many straight forward mortgage approvals,” says Mr. Gaetano, adding he can’t see arrears reaching U.S. levels because “we never had NINJA loans.”

Still, the tougher mortgage rules, which have included shrinking amortization lengths from as long as 40 years down to a maximum of 25 years, have had an impact on the consumer.

Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist with Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, said all the mortgage changes amount to a 125 basis point increase in rates for first-time buyers. A shorter amortization payment means a higher monthly payment while decreasing size of a loan for consumers.

“The market will slow, the only question is how quickly,” says Mr. Tal, who expects prices to fall nationally 10% to 15%. But in his view that’s not a bubble bursting. “The debate about overshooting is over, the question is the magnitude. At 10% to 15% that’s a market finding its footing.”

Analyzing BMO’s Go-Fixed Advice – ask a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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Vancouver Mortgage BrokerFixed rates are now “superior,” said BMO in this report released Thursday.

“While we have in the past supported going variable,” circumstances now “favour…locking in…”

That’s been BMO’s rally cry since 2010 when it proclaimed “Time to Say Goodbye…to Variable.” In retrospect, that advice would have cost mortgagors handsomely. But BMO was far from alone in that call.

Few anticipated the economy would drag along the bottom, depressing rates for five years after the great recession. People are now becoming desensitized to statements like “We may not see such low fixed rates again any time soon” (BMO’s latest prognostication).

Sooner or later, economists will be right on fixed rates, partly for the reasons BMO mentions (including higher inflation). But there are things about BMO’s report that people need to know about.

1) Variables may not perform as well as advertised

BMO writes that “Historically, there has been little contest” with variable rates being the better play. It argues that 85% of the time since 1975, variable rates were more cost-effective.

Well, it helps that 1975 is the start date for BMO’s analysis. In the 30 years preceding 1975, prime rose 6.00 percentage points. Excluding pre-1975 data improves variable-rate performance in backtests. In the 30 years after 1975, prime rate fell 4.75 percentage points, helping variable rates win by default.

But more questionable is that BMO’s analysis uses posted rates. Posted rates haven’t been relevant for years. Mortgagors rarely pay them anymore.

York University professor Moshe Milevsky, the man who wrote the book on fixed vs. variable performance, foundthat when discounted rates were used, the frequency of variable-rate outperformance dropped by 13 percentage points (based on data from 1950 to 2007).

The spread between posted fixed rates and posted variable rates is currently 199 basis points. If you backtest that spread you’ll get markedly different results than if you use today’s actual difference of 65 basis points. Canadian Mortgage Trends’ research shows that, in this latter more realistic case, the frequency of variable-rate outperformance is not 85%. It’s 59%.

Studies based on spreads that no longer exist are inapplicable to today’s rate environment. Of course, applying today’s spreads to the 1970s and 1980s is also imperfect. The difference is that it’s much more realistic to assume that lenders could have offered bigger discounts in the past, than it is to assume posted rates will apply to the future.

2) “One can always lock into a fixed rate at a later date.”—BMO

Sure you can, but at what rate?

Today you can get a 5-year fixed rate of 2.99% or less. But people who lock in don’t typically receive those rates. Instead, they get their lender’s “conversion rate.”

For many big-bank customers, that conversion rate is the bank’s “special offer” rate. This is the rate often paid by people who don’t negotiate. It can be 50 basis points or more above rates on the street. Paying an extra half-point premium to lock in would cost an extra $4,700 in interest over five years on a $300,000 25-year mortgage.

And then there’s the “little” problem of rate timing. Many people give themselves far too much credit when it comes to timing interest rates. Some folks believe they can wait for the Bank of Canada to announce a rate hike, and then lock in, thus beating the jump in 5-year fixed rates. Unfortunately, by that point bond yields (which drive fixed rates) may have already risen by up to one-half per cent or more.

Coupled with the conversion rate premium, people with bad timing could pay upwards of one percentage point more than today’s best 5-year fixed rates when locking in.

Long story short, if you’re likely to lock in later, lock innow.

3) Our interest rate outlook now projects an advantage to choosing a fixed rate.”—BMO

That’s what economists projected in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013…

In fact, the most objective and credible rate forecaster in the country, the Bank of Canada, has been wrong with its own forecasts for over four years.

Rate predictions are moving targets. Economists are paid to guess wrong. There are piles of research documenting how their forecasts are little better than coin flips most of the time. (More on that…) As a result, rate estimates deserve among the least weighting of all factors in mortgage-term analysis.

One strategy: Take the Lowest Rate All the Time

Some argue that the “best” mortgage strategy is picking the lowest possible rate, every time. That’s a horrible plan if the mortgages you pick have prepayment and refinance restrictions that cost you more than the rate savings. But assuming you chose reasonably flexible mortgages, this strategy would have served you well the majority of the time throughout history.

In the low-inflation and low-growth environment to come (read this report from Morgan Stanley), a short-term/variable-rate mortgage strategy should continue winning more often than not. But there will be cases when it doesn’t, and today may be one of them (albeit, we’ve heard that before).

In general, the cheaper it is to insure against higher rates, the more sense it makes for typical Canadians to be “insured.” The cost of laying off risk to your lender is the difference between long-term and short-term mortgage rates. Nowadays, that premium is roughly half of its historical average since 1970.

Put another way, it’ll cost you a heck of a lot less if you make the wrong rate choice today.

Fixed vs. Variable Decision Criteria

Relying on short- and medium-term economic forecasts are one of the least effective ways to choose a term. Using common sense yields far better results. That entails weighing criteria like:

1) Your finances

2) Your 5-year plan

  • Taking out equity, adding to your mortgage, or outright breaking the mortgage can get expensive if you pick a 5-year term with a harsh penalty or bad refinance policy.

3) Your ability to qualify

  • Lenders assess whether you can afford a variable rate by projecting higher hypothetical payments using the Bank of Canada’s 5-year posted rate (4.99% today).
  • By contrast, if you get a 5-year fixed you only have to prove you can afford that payment (based on a rate that’s roughly 2.00 percentage points below the posted rate).

4) The risk/reward

  • Can you stomach a potential 25-35% jump in your interest costs? (Note: Some lenders keep your payment fixed but you’ll still pay more interest if prime rate rises.)
  • Over the next five years, if the Bank of Canada lifts rates by even one percentage point and nothing else, a 5-year fixed mortgage costs less (based on interest cost alone, a mid-2015 hike and a mortgage with favourable prepayment and refinance conditions).

5) Economic factors

  • While the least useful of all considerations, Canada’s position in the economic cycle should at least be contemplated.
  • When variable rates have underperformed in the past, it has typically occurred after economic downturns.
  • If we are indeed emerging from a trough in the business cycle, the next major move in rates should be up. In the last three rate cycles, the average prime rate increase from trough to peak has been 3.16%.

********

The preponderance of evidence suggests putting your faith in a variable-rate mortgage…over the long run. Those last four words are key because there are always exceptions, and those exceptions are more common than publicized studies suggest.

If prime rate were 1.50 percentage points higher and/or the fixed-variable spread were 1.50 (for example) instead of 0.65, variables might be a safer bet. But, as BMO implies, today’s fixed-rate premium is now low enough to back the underdog: the 5-year fixed.

Rob McLister, CMT (email)

Mortgage shopping? Two stars and four dogs from today’s market – Ask a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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ROBERT MCLISTER–  Special to The Globe and Mail

Vancouver Mortgage Broker

A variable-rate mortgage entails a vulnerability to possible short-term rate increases by the Bank of Canada.
(RAFAL GERSZAK FOR THE GLOBE AND MAIL)

Eight months ago, some were proclaiming the end of 2.99-per-cent five-year mortgage rates, for years to come.

And now, low and behold, they’re back.

But you have to hunt much harder for 2.99 per cent than you did last spring. Some lenders, especially banks, are wary of advertising sub-3-per-cent rates. In a few cases, lenders are even preventing brokers from discounting below 3 per cent. Financial institutions are trying their best to protect margins, and Ottawa’s rate police might also be having an effect (more on that).

If you’re lucky enough to find a five-year fixed rate near 3 per cent, don’t feel pressured to lock in. Regulators, the Finance Minister and former Bank of Canada boss Mark Carney practically guarantee that higher rates are coming … eventually. But no one can define “eventually,” so it pays to consider some of the other factors behind the ideal mortgage term.

With that in mind, here’s a look at two stars and four dogs from today’s mortgage market.

The Stars

The five-year fixed
Over half of all Canadian homeowners choose five-year fixed terms. They’re the easiest mortgages for lenders to raise capital for, which creates fierce competition and aggressive discounting. If you know where to look (hint: online), you’ll find five-year rates just above 3 per cent. In some cases, even 2.99 per cent or less. That’s just over half of a percentage point above most variable rates.

These five-years rates may or may not be around for long, depending on what government bond yields do (rising yields lead to rising fixed mortgage rates). In terms of interest cost alone, today’s five-year is the safest bet if you expect average mortgage rates to jump 1.50 percentage points or more through 2017. Ask most economists and they’d imply you’re crazy to bet against that “small” of a rate hike.

But not all five-year terms are created equal. Be vigilant for adverse penalty calculations, limited prepayment options, restrictions on refinancing and/or porting ((porting is when you move your mortgage to a new property), short rate-hold periods and uncompetitive rate blend policies (a “blended rate” refers to the rate you get if you need to add money to your mortgage later). These considerations apply to all terms, but especially five-year mortgages that bind you to your lender for longer.

The three-year fixed
Many risk tolerant borrowers are trading in their five-year terms for a more agile three-year fixed. I say “agile” because three-year mortgages give you lots of options. For one thing, you can lock in your renewal rate in just 32 to 33 months. Why 32 to 33 months? Because you can get rate-holds 90-120 days in advance of your three-year maturity date.

A three-year also lets you refinance sooner without a penalty. That flexibility can help if you need to withdraw equity from your home or switch to a different type of mortgage (e.g., one with a line of credit). The shorter term also helps if you plan to move before five years is up, as 31 per cent of first-time buyers and 19 per cent of repeat buyers plan to do, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

Some lenders even let you blend and extend their three-year mortgages early, which is like locking in without a penalty – handy if you want to secure cheap borrowing costs before rates head higher.

At the moment, you can find three-year terms for 2.69 per cent or less. That’s at least 0.40 percentage points below most five-year fixed rates. The best way to compare a three-year mortgage to a five-year is to assume that you’ll renew into a two-year term (three years + two years = five years total). In that scenario, if two-year fixed rates jump more than 1.25 percentage points in 32 to 33 months, you would have been better off just taking a five-year fixed, based on interest costs alone.

The Dogs

The 10-year fixed
Lenders aren’t doing us any favours with 10-year pricing. Most decade-long mortgages are offered at 4.29 per cent or more. That’s a fat premium over a five-year fixed. Rates would have to jump almost three percentage points in five years for a 10-year to be less costly than a five-year, based on interest cost alone. That’s not impossible, it’s just improbable given the degree of inflation it would imply. (Inflation drives interest rates. The Bank of Canada along with our modestly growing mature economy have both been tempering inflation.)

The four-year fixed
Four-year terms are currently 2.99 per cent or thereabouts. That’s no match for one of the following: the markedly cheaper three-year fixed or a similarly priced five-year term with generous flexibility.

Six- and seven-year fixed rates
Perennially on the dogs list, suffice it to say, their rate premiums work against them. You’re protected from rising rates for an extra year or two but pay 0.60 to 0.80 percentage points more for that “insurance.” The math just doesn’t work out.

All of these comments above apply to well-qualified borrowers with provable income who plan to have a mortgage for five years or more. If that doesn’t sound like you, some personalized advice might serve you well.

Robert McLister is a mortgage planner at intelliMortgage Inc. and founder ofRateSpy.com. You can follow him on Twitter at @RateSpy and@CdnMortgageNews.


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