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Fixed mortgages now trump variable, report says. Not everyone agrees – Consult with Bruce Coleman, Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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Vancouver Mortgage BrokerFixed-rate mortgages have gained an edge over variable-rate mortgages given the improving economy and attractive offers on longer-term deals, says a new report from economists at one of Canada’s big banks.

“Fixed now modestly trumps variable,” according to a BMO Nesbitt Burns study published Thursday.

While many mortgage brokers agree with that assessment, others caution that locking into a fixed rate is not the best way to go.

Historically low interest rates have dramatically narrowed the spread between five-year fixed mortgage rates and variable ones, according to the report by BMO Nesbitt Burns chief economist Douglas Porter and senior economist Benjamin Reitzes.

Added to that are improving economic conditions and the likelihood of rate hikes from both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve next year, they say.

“While we have in the past supported going variable, and even though short-term rates are likely to remain low this year, current offers on long-term mortgage rates and the improving economic outlook tilt the balance in favour of locking in at this stage,” the authors say.

Five-year rates of 2.99 per cent can still be found and that compares favourably to the roughly 2.5-per-cent rate offered on variable mortgages, said David Hughes, a mortgage agent with Mortgage Group Ontario Inc.

“I don’t see how you can go wrong getting a five-year mortgage at 2.99 per cent,” he said.

But mortgage planner David Larock says the BMO study “sounds like another chapter in the age-old fixed versus variable debate – and the banks have largely been saying that fixed rates are the way to go for years now, even in the face of considerable evidence to the contrary.

“I am always a little cynical of this stock advice when given by the banks because their fixed-rate mortgages are much more profitable, and convenient, because advising borrowers to take the more conservative path is easily defensible, even if it proves more expensive over time,” he said in an e-mail.

Vince Gaetano, principal broker with MonsterMortgage.ca, agrees.

“Banks are very good at scaring variable-rate clients into locking in prematurely. This took place last year when fixed rates spiked temporarily only to fall again. At the same time, variable-rate discounts have increased,” he said.

The BMO report, meanwhile, says the bond market has been signalling strongly for the past year that “the era of low interest rates may be finally drawing to a close.

“As bond yields rise, the cost of funds for lenders also rises, ultimately putting upward pressure on consumer and business borrowing costs, including long-term mortgage rates. So, even if variable rates take some time to climb, we may not see such low fixed rates again any time soon.”

Historically, fixed rates have proven to be more expensive than variable rates.

“Fully 85 per cent of the time since 1975, the cost-effective route for borrowers was to stay variable,” the report said.

“Considering the likely upward trend in interest rates as the global recovery picks up speed in 2014, this may be one of those rare periods when a fixed rate turns out to be the superior choice.”

There are other reasons why locking into a five-year mortgage may not be for everyone, says another mortgage broker and industry expert.

It could be a disadvantage for homeowners who are considering a move in the near future or mulling a refinancing of their property, said Robert McLister, editor of Canadian Mortgage Trends.

“The bank penalties are not so friendly,” he said.

On average, though, “mathematically speaking I think the five-year fixed is the best value in the market right now.”

The BMO report refers to another – less tangible – factor favouring fixed rates: peace of mind.

The borrower “gets certainty with a fixed rate, and that certainty is worth something to many. A small premium on fixed-rate mortgages and shorter amortization schedule represent inexpensive protection against a rate spike.

“For those who don’t have much financial flexibility, and would run into difficulty from a pronounced upswing in interest rates (typically first-time buyers), any potential extra cost for peace of mind now appears to be a price well worth paying.”

Think Gen Y will prop up Canada’s housing market? Think again – Consult with Bruce Coleman, Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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Hints of the housing market’s undoing can be found in the questions being asked by a 26-year-old, recently graduated, money-saving virtuoso we’ll call Steve.

Heard about all the struggling members of Generation Y who wonder how they’ll ever afford a house? Steve’s not one of them. He graduated with an engineering degree in 2012, landed a full-time job several months later and has been saving aggressively.

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Boomers, Gen Y may not be able to pay the price you’re expecting to get for your home when you sell in the years to come.
(Fred Lum/The Globe and Mail)

Now, he’s thinking about home ownership. He wonders, is it wise for a young person like himself to buy now, or is the market headed for a fall as baby boomers unload their family homes? “I’m curious who they think is going to buy their houses at the prices they expect to get,” Steve said.

Steve, who lives in Mississauga, has done all the right things financially. He worked and saved hard in his student years and, with help from his parents, he graduated from university with no debts other than a small balance of a few hundred dollars on his credit card.

“I’m very fortunate in my situation,” he said. “But I feel like I’m a bit of an outlier. How many young people out there are swimming in debt and can’t even start saving up for a house down payment until their mid-30s?”

Here’s what we know about the struggles of Gen Y. The number of people aged 20 to 29 who are living with their parents hit 42.3 per cent in the 2011 census, up from 27 per cent in 1981. The unemployment rate for young adults was double the national rate at 13.9 per cent in January, and there’s a serious problem of underemployment. Ask your friends and co-workers how their adult kids are doing and you’ll find this to be an issue that cuts across all lines on family income and status.

Meantime, housing prices keep rising in the big cities that offer the best job prospects. The average Calgary house went for about $444,000 in January. The Hamilton-Burlington area, a commutable distance from Toronto, averaged about $385,600, while Toronto itself averaged about $526,500.

Condos may be a cheaper option, and there are always cheaper homes to be found in the suburbs or less desirable neighbourhoods. But there are still two big impediments to Gen Y home ownership: Saving a down payment, and affording the monthly carrying costs.

Not for Steve, mind you. He’s been renting an affordable apartment and, thanks to his good salary and savings habits, he’s not far from having a down payment for a house in the Toronto area. If he dips into his registered retirement savings plan using the federal Home Buyer’s Plan, he’s probably good to go with a minimum 5-per-cent down payment.

A quick aside: This engineer is so meticulous in his financial thinking that he’s creating a spreadsheet to help him understand whether it makes good financial sense to use the Home Buyer’s Plan – “I know how horribly nerdy it sounds.”

In Steve, we have a Gen Y member who believes in home ownership and can afford to buy. He’s just nervous about buying into a market that seems headed for a mismatch between sellers expecting top dollar and buyers with limited means. “You’re going to have a younger generation basically saying, sorry, we can’t afford that.”

Steve e-mailed me looking for some feedback on his thinking about housing. I really have only one question about his analysis: Why is this 26-year-old the only one asking about Gen Y’s ability to keep the housing market afloat in the years ahead?

Boomers, wake up to this. A recent survey by Sun Life Financial suggests almost one in four Canadians see their house as their main source of income in retirement. Newsflash: Gen Y may not be able to pay the price you’re expecting to get for your home when you sell in the years to come.

As for Steve, I suggest waiting on the home purchase. If it’s not Gen Y’s economic struggles that cool the market, it will be the total disconnect between rises in house prices and income (read more about that in my column: Why Canadian homes are more unaffordable than ever.)

The only way it makes sense for Steve to buy any time soon is if he commits to staying in the house long enough – 10 to 12 years at least – for prices to recover from a possible correction. In the short-term after a decline, he should prepare for an epic case of buyer’s regret.

————————-

Here’s an online reading list for people who want to get up to speed on Generation Y and the housing market:

1. Renting beats buying: Asked to justify buying or renting, the 20-somethings in Prof. Richard Harris’s urban housing class at McMaster University choose renting by a margin of 18 to five.

2. Think houses are unaffordable now? Check out how astronomical prices will get if they keep rising at current levels.

3. Don’t fence me in: How some Gen Y members see home ownership as too big a financial sacrifice. tgam.ca/Dz9F

4. Neil’s story: He’s 31, single and renting. Should he use his $20,000 in savings to buy a condo or house?

5. The Who Had It Worse Time Machine: Compare the economic challenges faced by Gen Y with young adults back in the early 1980s.

Follow me on Twitter: @rcarrick

Can you really afford that mortgage? Know your Real Life Ratio – consult with Bruce Coleman, Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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imageSomeone ought to explain the facts of life to the nation’s bankers.

They’re handing out mortgages to people without any apparent understanding that today’s home-buying couple is tomorrow’s family of three or four. A lot happens to one’s ability to afford mortgage payments when kids come along, but you’d never know it by the way lenders qualify borrowers.

Never take a lender’s word for it that you can afford a house. Instead, try a new tool I’ve created called the Real Life Ratio.

Download the Real Life Ratio interactive spreadsheet here.

It’s designed to show how well you’ll be able to handle the basic monthly costs of home ownership, plus real life expenses such as cars, daycare and long-term home maintenance. Prospective home buyers should try it, and so should existing homeowners who want to see how well they’re handling their finances.

The Real Life Ratio is an expansion of a simple affordability measure I introduced last year called the Total Debt Service and Savings Ratio, or TDSS. The idea of creating something more comprehensive came to me after a Globe and Mail series on daycare was published last fall. We heard from many people about how hard it was to manage the cost of a mortgage in today’s expensive housing market, on top of daycare and other costs.

Use the Real Life Ratio and you’ll know what you’re getting into before you buy a house. You may decide you need to save a bigger down payment, buy a smaller house, live in a cheaper location or not buy at all.

Here are a few important things to know about the ratio:

1. Household take-home pay is used here: Other ratios use gross income, which is less relevant for practical financial planning.

2. This is not a budget: Only fixed costs are included here; food, clothing and other costs aren’t discretionary, but you decide how much to spend.

3. Costs for home maintenance and improvement are included: You won’t face these costs every year, but on a long-term basis they might average about 1 per cent of your home’s value annually; maybe less for brand new homes and more for older ones.

4. There’s a slot to include condo fees: Be sure to add any monthly utility costs that are not included in your condo fees.

5. Your local real estate market plays a big role: A liveable Real Life Ratio may be harder to achieve in big cities with roaring real estate markets.

Guidelines on how to interpret the ratio are provided. For optimum results, make a list of your monthly spending on food, transportation, entertainment and everything else not included in the ratio. Then, see whether your lifestyle is affordable. If your Real Life Ratio is 80, could you get by on 20 per cent of your take-home pay?

Keep in mind that your ratio will change – for the worse if you have kids in daycare and have a couple of cars, and for the better once your kids are out of daycare and you move into your prime earning years.

To ensure the Real Life Ratio reflects real life, I consulted four financial planners. Thanks to Rona Birenbaum, Barbara Garbens, Kurt Rosentreter and Renée Verret for some useful suggestions based in part on spending patterns of their own clients.

Download the Real Life Ratio interactive spreadsheet here.

Follow me on Twitter: @rcarrick

A third of Canadians would enter bidding war to buy a home: survey – Ask a Vancouver Mortgage broker

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A third of Canadians would enter bidding war to buy a home:  – TORONTO — The Canadian Press

Vancouver Mortgage Broker

Real estate signs in Toronto’s East end on Dec. 16, 2013.
(Deborah Baic/The Globe and Mail)

More Canadians are willing to enter a bidding war and fight it out to secure a property, according to a home buying report released today by Bank of Montreal.

It says 34 per cent of Canadians surveyed are willing to enter a bidding war when it’s time to buy a home, an increase of six points, or 21 per cent, from a year ago.

The survey, conducted by Pollara for BMO, suggests the appetite for competitive bids among major cities is the highest in Toronto, at 44 per cent, and Vancouver, at 41 per cent.

On a provincial basis, prospective buyers in the Prairies and British Columbia are the most willing to compete on the price of a home, with a reading of 38 per cent in both regions.

The BMO survey also reports current homeowners say they visited an average of 9.5 homes before buying. While 49 per cent said they were successful on their first bid, the figure drops to 42 per cent among those who bought in the past five years – including 32 per cent in Vancouver and 24 per cent in Toronto.

The survey results are based on random online interviews with 2,007 Canadians between Jan. 24 and Feb. 3. Of those, 1,051 were prospective homebuyers and the remainder were current homeowners.

The polling industry’s professional body, the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association, says online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error because they do not randomly sample the population.

Work longer but work smarter – Consult with Bruce Coleman, Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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Vancouver Mortgage BrokerFor most of us, the concept of retiring at 55 is dead. It is dead because many would struggle to finance a retirement that will last 30 plus years, but also dead because many people are realizing that they don’t actually want to be retired for 30 years.

Since 1975, the average number of years spent in retirement has grown by more than 30%.

Not everyone seems to be enamoured of that idea — Statistics Canada said last week in a comprehensive survey that once-retired people are returning to the workforce in droves. About 60% of those aged 55 to 59 opted to return to the workforce, the survey suggested. And about 45% of those aged 60-65 elected to return.

The study doesn’t nail down if it was money or other reasons that drove us back to the working world but these are significant numbers that we likely wouldn’t have seen 40 years ago. The study stopped at 65 but I think in the coming years we will see more and more people working well into their 70s.

According to The Canadian Human Mortality Database, the average life expectancy for a 55-year-old male is 27.1 years, or to age 82. Given that it is an average, roughly half of all 55-year-old males will live beyond 82. This is based on 2009 data.

In 1975, the number was 20.7 years, or to age 75.7.

This may not seem like a huge difference at first, but looked at another way, the average length of retirement for a 55-year-old male has grown 31% since 1975, from 20.7 years to 27.1 years. That is very meaningful.

If we look at the same numbers for a 65-year-old male, today the average life expectancy is another 18.8 years, versus 13.8 in 1975. This represents a 36% increase in average retirement for a 65-year-old male since 1975.

For females, the trend is the same, but slightly less dramatic. A 55-year-old female can expect to live another 30.5 years on average, meaning roughly 50% of 55-year-old females will live beyond 85. This has grown 17% for women since 1975.

A 65-year-old female can expect to live another 21.8 years, meaning roughly half will live beyond 86.8 years. This has grown 22% for women since 1975.

The point of all of this is that retirement planning needs to change, and a significant part of that relates to employment.

Let’s take a look at a 55-year-old male today.

He may have 20 to 40 years of life in front of him and may be nearing the end of his career. This makes no sense for most people – both for financial and quality of life reasons. There needs to be a better fit between this person’s skills, work goals, financial goals and the broader workplace.

This shouldn’t be that difficult to figure out.

The private sector is always looking for people to hire that will add to a companies’ profitability.

In many cases, someone who might have been making $150,000 a year working full time at age 55, might be very happy to work six months a year or 20 hours a week at age 65 and make $50,000.  This could be very productive for many companies.

I believe that there are currently two factors preventing a better workplace fit for those who want to work into their late 60s and 70s, and even 80s.

1) 9-5 workdays That rigidity certainly isn’t good for traffic during rush hour, but it also prevents too many valuable workers from continuing to work. Whether it is a much shorter or flexible work week or more piecemeal project work, there needs to be more workplace creativity in order to be able to take advantage of the great talent available.

2) Ageism There continues to be a belief that older workers can’t contribute or add value. Their ‘old school’ ways and lack of technology skills or “unwillingness” to burn the midnight oil are typical comments heard in the workplace. Despite these perceived weaknesses, we also know that things really get done based on communication skills, people management, problem solving, and looking at things from a different perspective.

This reminds me of an ‘old school’ manager I once had who would often be seen going over his files from the ’70s and ’80s. Occasionally he would pull one of them out, blow off the dust, and say “let’s see how we dealt with this same issue the last time.” It was amazing how often we would discover that today’s new business issues had already been dealt with many years before.

There is also a broader economic issue for Canada. As a country we would be in much better shape if we can tap into the productivity of those over 65. This wasn’t such a big issue in 1971 when those over 65 were just 8% of the population. Today that number is 16%, and it is expected to be 24% in the next couple of decades.

If 65 really is the new 55, then we better figure out how to make it work.

Ted Rechtshaffen is president and wealth advisor at TriDelta Financial, a boutique wealth management firm focusing on retirement and estate planning.tedr@tridelta.ca

CMHC’s move to hike mortgage insurance premiums prompts competitors to follow – Ask a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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The cost of mortgage default insurance is about to go up for most consumers after competitors moved quickly to follow Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.’s decision to raise premiums.

Vancouver Mortgage BrokerIn Canada’s housing market here’s what $500 K buys: A lake in Edmonton … a condo in Toronto

The Canadian Real Estate Association has predicted that the national average price for a home will be $391,000 this year.

But it’s hard to compare how far your buck will go in Canadian cities using that figure, since the average prices at year’s end are so very different: $785,574 in Vancouver and $320,693 in Montreal, for instance. So we’ve found a round figure in the middle and asked, what could approximately $500,000 have bought homebuyers in various markets across the country? Read on to find out.

The federal agency announced Friday it is increasing premiums across the board, effective May 1. The change does not impact existing homeowners and is expected to raise up to $175-million for CMHC.

“The higher premiums reflect CMHC’s higher capital targets,” said Steven Mennill, CMHC’s vice-president of insurance operations, in a release. “CMHC’s capital holdings reduce Canadian taxpayers’ exposure to the housing market and contribute to the long term stability of the financial system.”

CMHC said in a conference call with journalists to discuss the premium change that it should cost the average Canadian about $5 per month on their mortgage.

Canadians must buy mortgage default insurance if they have less than a 20% downpayment and are borrowing from a financial institution covered by the Bank Act. The insurance covers banks in the event of default and is ultimately backstopped by the federal government. There is close to $1-trillion backed by Ottawa, including private players.

At the top end of the market for someone with a mortgage for 95% of the value of their home, the premium CMHC charges will go from 2.75% to 3.15%. On a $450,000 mortgage, the fee — it is charged up front and often tacked onto the mortgage, would rise from $12,375 to $14,175.

CMHC controls about 70% of the mortgage default insurance market in Canada with private players Genworth Canada and Canada Guaranty holding the rest.

Genworth announced it too would raise premiums across the board by an average of 15%. Its increases will take effect May 1 too.

“All three insurers have the same standard premiums today. By the time CMHC hikes its fees in May, I suspect the privates will have announced matching increases,” said Rob McLister, editor of Canadian Mortgage Trends, before Genworth matched the hike.

Tyler Anderson/National Post
Tyler Anderson/National PostCMHC controls about 70% of the mortgage default insurance market in Canada with private players Genworth Canada and Canada Guaranty holding the rest.

A key issue will be whether the hike, it’s only 10 basis points for mortgages that are 65% loan to value, leads to people trying to buy ahead of the increase.

On the call with journalists, CMHC officials indicated they didn’t expect any of this so-called front-running to happen. However, when mortgage rates were set to climb, consumers did try to buy early to beat the increase — albeit interest increases have a far greater impact on consumer costs.

Finn Poschmann, vice President, research with the C.D. Howe Institute, said he thinks the increase will lead to a jump in sales ahead of the May 1 price change. “As a share of closing costs, it is a pretty big hit,” said Mr. Poschmann. “On a monthly basis it’s not that much. The change goes by the application date not the closing date so even if you are going to be closing a couple of months later, you are facing an incentive to get the mortgage application in.”

He applauded the change because it means CMHC is operating in a more professional manner.

“This is much better risk management and risk pricing,” said Mr. Poschmann. “And it is a sensible, scaled increase in premiums for rising loan to value ratios.”

Last year, the federal government announced that CMHC would fall under control of the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. Then in late 2013 it announced it had brought in a former investment banker, Evan Siddall, to run the Crown corporation.

7 Myths About Dividend-Paying Stocks Separate the myths from the facts on the value of dividend-paying stocks. – Consult with a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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7 Myths About Dividend-Paying Stocks-  Separate the myths from the facts on the value of dividend-paying stocks.

Vancouver Mortgage BrokerThe most common misconception among investors may be the value of investing in dividend-paying stocks. Almost every week, someone contacts me to extol the virtues of investing in what they call “high quality, dividend-yielding securities.” Often, their interest is spurred by the recent high performance of these stocks. According to one paper by Gregg S. Fisher, published in the Journal of Financial Planning, the FTSE High Dividend Yield index of U.S. stocks returned a whopping 26 percent between the period of Jan. 1, 2011 and Sept. 30, 2012. During the same period, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell short, returning 19 percent.

There are many myths on the benefits of investing in these stocks. Here are some of the most common ones:

Myth No. 1: Dividends hold up in bad markets. There is a perception that dividend-paying stocks will hold up better when the market declines. If that were the case, you would think the stock of General Electric, a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, would help prove that point. GE paid a quarterly dividend of $0.31 per share in 2008. In 2009, during the global recession, GE cut its dividend to $0.10, commencing in the second quarter of 2009.

GE was not alone. In 2009, a whopping 57 percent of dividend-paying companies, located in 23 developed markets, either reduced their dividends or eliminated them altogether.

Myth No. 2: Dividend-paying stocks outperform the market. From 1991 to 2012, the simple average annual returns of dividend-paying stocks and the market were both 9.1 percent. During the same period, stocks not paying dividends had a simple average annual return of 11.1 percent, though the higher returns came with greater volatility.

Myth No. 3: Dividend-paying stocks provide adequate diversification.  If you focus only on investing in dividend-paying stocks, you are ignoring 39 percent of the global companies that do not pay dividends. An investor who invests only in dividend-paying stocks is sacrificing diversification. Approximately 53 percent of global small-cap stocks pay dividends. If your portfolio is made up entirely of dividend-paying stocks, you are excluding 47 percent of global small-cap stocks.

Myth No. 4: Dividends are a reliable source of future income.  A change in tax policy can dramatically affect future payment of dividends. In the U.S., dividends are taxed favorably compared with ordinary income tax rates. For individuals in an income tax bracket that not exceeding 35 percent, dividends are taxed at only 15 percent. However, there isn’t any assurance this policy will not change, or that foreign countries will not alter their tax policy toward dividends.

Myth No. 5: Dividends are tax efficient.  Dividends are more tax efficient than ordinary income because they are taxed at a lower rate. However, they are less tax efficient than capital gains, because you are taxed on dividends in the year in which they are paid, but you are not taxed on capital gains until you sell the stock.

Myth No. 6: Buying dividend stocks is a prudent way to obtain exposure to value stocks.Fisher’s analysis of more than 30 years of high dividend-yielding stocks compared those stocks’ returns with the broader stock market. The paper concluded that it wasn’t the dividends associated with high-yielding stocks that drove performance. In fact, the author, Gregg S. Fisher, concluded that the “ … yield factor associated with high dividend-yielding stocks actually detracted from performance.”

If dividends didn’t account for the returns, what factor did? It was the value factor, which refers to the purchase of stocks that have low prices compared with earnings or other metrics (like book value). The study concluded there are better ways to get exposure to value stocks than buying high dividend stocks. It recommended simply tilting your portfolio toward value stocks.

Myth No. 7: Dividend-paying stocks are a substitute for bonds. Some investors believe they can improve their yields, without taking additional risk, by dumping bonds from their portfolio and substituting higher dividend-paying stocks. This analysis is incorrect on several levels.

First, dividend-paying stocks are (obviously) stocks. They have significantly greater risk than high quality, short-term bonds. Comparing the returns of these two investments doesn’t make any sense.

Second, there is a better way to increase expected returns. You can do so by increasing your allocation to stocks. The purpose of bonds is to lessen periods of volatility. You should take a total return approach to investing. The stock portion of your portfolio is where you should take risk. You should not take any meaningful risk with the bond portion.

Third, if the market drops, the value of the stocks of dividend-paying companies would also likely decline, and the dividends could be reduced or even eliminated. Proponents of buying dividend-paying stocks often dismiss or ignore these risks.

Dan Solin is the director of investor advocacy for the BAM Alliance and a wealth advisor with Buckingham Asset Management. He is a New York Times best-selling author of the Smartest series of books. His next book, “The Smartest Sales Book You’ll Ever Read,” will be published March 3, 2014.

Pimco sees Canadian housing market falling as much as 20% – Consult with a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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Vancouver Mortgage BrokerPacific Investment Management Co. forecasts Canadian home prices falling as much as 20% in the next five years, removing the boost from household spending that contributed to faster-than-expected growth last quarter.

In Canada’s housing market here’s what $500 K buys: A lake in Edmonton … a condo in Toronto

 

 

Bank of CanadaFrom four bedrooms in Windsor to one-bedroom in Vancouver, check out how far $500,000 goes in 8 major markets across Canada. Read on

“Canadian housing is overvalued,” Ed Devlin, the London-based head of Pimco’s Canadian portfolio, said by telephone. “I would expect to see it happening at the end of this year, we’re going to start to see housing roll over.”

The world’s largest manager of bond funds has been reducing its holdings of Canadian debt after a run of strong profits, he said. The housing decline, which could be cancelled out or reduced to 10% when accounting for inflation, will cause a pullback in consumer spending, capping economic growth this year in Canada around 2%, Devlin said.

Though that is less than the 2.3% growth forecast by the Bank of Canada, it should still be enough to keep the central bank from cutting interest rates as exports pick up some of the slack, he said.

Consumer spending helped boost Canada’s gross domestic product by 2.9% in the last three months of 2013, data showed last week. More recent data has shown signs the housing market is cooling, with new-home construction falling twice as fast as economists forecast in January.

“It’s not a collapse, it’s a correction. We think the Canadian economy can handle it,” said Devlin. “It’s going to be a headwind to consumption as people don’t have the same kind of wealth effect and are more anxious about their house than they have been in the past. They’ll consume less.”

According to the IMF, Canada has the most overvalued housing market in the world

Bank of CanadaThe report, which aims to put global housing markets in perspective, puts Canada at the top of the overvalued scale, 85% above the historic average of house prices to rent. Read on

Pimco isn’t the only one warning the market is overvalued. Deutsche Bank, for instance, issued a report in December that said Canada’s housing market was the most overvalued in the world, pegging prices as being 60% too high.

Last month both the International Monetary Fund and TD economists said Canadian home prices were overvalued by 10%.

The IMF’s report said that when compared to other advanced economies and income and rents in Canada, home prices remain high, even as home sales have stalled. It does note that not all Canadian markets are overvalued, however, and that outsized prices tend to dominate in the country’s largest cities, such as Toronto.

The Canadian housing market and worries about a real estate bubble have been key concerns for policy-makers for several years. Recent indicators have suggested the market may be headed for a soft landing instead of a bubble bursting, but concerns have persisted.

Get ready for house prices to continue to rise in Toronto- Ask Bruce Coleman, Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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Vancouver Mortgage BrokerIt’s only two weeks of data, but the Toronto Real Estate Board is reporting the first 14 days of February saw existing home prices continue to rise.

Safe as houses? Canadians think their homes will fund their retirement

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The average sale price of an existing home reached $547,107 for the first weeks of February, that was a 7.8% increase from the same period a year earlier.

“Price growth well above the rate of inflation will be the norm for the remainder of the year. Over the same period, mortgage rates are expected to remain low, thereby keeping home ownership affordable in the Greater Toronto Area,” said Jason Mercer, senior manager of market analysis, in a release.

Mortgage rates have been trending back down for fixed rate products for five-year lengths, with some brokers suggesting the magical 3% barrier has been breached again.

There could be some upward pressure on prices from a pullback in new listings too. TREB said new listings over the same period are off 6.1%.

“The annual rate of decline was less than experienced last month,” said Dianne Usher, president of the board, talking about new listings. “This may point to an improvement in the listings situation moving forward, which would help alleviate some of the pent-up demand that currently exists in the marketplace.”

Sales have not pulled back either. There were 2,767 sales through the first 14 days in the GTA which is a 1.3% increase from a year earlier for the same period.

Detached prices are rising fastest. The average detached home sold for $710,949 during the period, a 10.4% increase from a year earlier. Semi-detached homes rose 2.1% in value, townhouses 8.8% and condominiums 5.3%
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In Canada’s housing market here’s what $500 K buys: A lake in Edmonton … a condo in Toronto – Consult with Bruce Coleman, Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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The Canadian Real Estate Association has predicted that the national average price for a home will be $391,000 this year.

Vancouver Mortgage BrokerBut it’s hard to compare how far your buck will go in Canadian cities using that figure, since the average prices at year’s end are so very different: $785,574 in Vancouver and $320,693 in Montreal, for instance. So we’ve found a round figure in the middle and asked, what could approximately $500,000 have bought homebuyers in various markets across the country?

EDMONTON

Shaughn Butts/Edmonton Journal
Shaughn Butts/Edmonton Journal$499,900 in Edmonton will get you two-and-a-half storey, three-bedroom show home, with double detached garage and 2.5 baths.

The place: Two-and-a-half storey, three-bedroom show home, with double detached garage and 2.5 baths

List price: $499,900

edmontonSquare footage: 1,901

Taxes: $3,400

Monthly fees: HOA $300/month

Where: Late stage of an established development in city’s southeast, south of the ring road. Forty minutes to downtown, 10 minutes to the airport, and five minutes to a residents-only recreational lake.

Top features: Loft-den, bonus room with Juliet balcony, hardwood, gas fireplace, all appliances, deck and landscaping included. As a bonus, all the furnishings are included. HOA fee includes access to a 32-acre freshwater lake with sandy beach, dock, tennis courts and all-season clubhouse.

Contact: Madeline Sarafinchin, Jayman Realty (Edm) Inc.; 780-913-6595

MONTREAL

Handout
HandoutThis four-bedroom bungalow in a western suburb of Montreal comes with a salt-water pool.

The place: Four-bedroom bungalow with two baths, built in 1959

List price: $492,500

Square footage: 1,442

Where: The Beaurepaire area of Beaconsfield, a western suburb of Montreal. Not far from Lac St. Louis and a commuter train station.

Top features: Comfortable bright living room with wood fireplace opening to dining area. Fully renovated three years ago, with spacious and modern kitchen with granite counter tops. Unique south-facing den adjacent to master bedroom. Fenced yard with new salt-water pool on a lot of 9,122 square feet. Extra-large basement family room with fourth bedroom, laundry room and workshop.

Taxes: $4,746

Monthly Fees: N/A

Contact: G. Shepherd Abbey, Abbey & Olivier Real Estate Agency; cell: 514-951-6008; office: 514-694-7866; shep@abbeyandolivier.ca

 OTTAWA

handout
handoutIn the east-end suburb of Orleans, separated by a 20- to 25-minute highway drive from downtown Ottawa.

The place: Two-storey single family home with four bedrooms and four bathrooms

List price: $499,900

Square footage: 3,200

Where: In the east-end suburb of Orleans, separated by a 20- to 25-minute highway drive from downtown Ottawa. This home is a short walk to shopping, cafés, parks, schools and public transit.

Top features: Classic crown moulding and gleaming hardwood floors run throughout the main level of this Naismith model by Minto. The kitchen is open to the family room to allow ease of flow when guests come to visit. An elegant curved hardwood staircase leads to the upper landing. Homeowners can spread out with two spacious ensuite bathrooms and three walk-in closets. The backyard is fully fenced with no rear neighbours.

Taxes: $4,879

Monthly Fees: N/A

Contact: Jason Pilon, Keller Williams Ottawa Realty, Jason@PilonHamilton.com, PilonHamilton.com; 613-845-0271

REGINA

Handout
HandoutThis two-storey split in Regina has13 rooms, including three bedrooms and three bathrooms.

The place: A two-storey split with 13 rooms, including three bedrooms and three bathrooms

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List price: $519,900

Square footage: 2,090

Where: Situated in a well-established, well-treed neighbourhood in southeast Regina, close to schools, parks and shopping. Only a few minutes drive from downtown. Backing green space.

Top features: A spacious family home, built in 1984, featuring many updates and upgrades, including a modern, eat-in kitchen with granite countertops, and heated slate flooring through the kitchen, dining area and hallway. A garden door leads to the deck overlooking a beautifully landscaped yard with patio, pond and flower beds. The over-sized garage is insulated and drywalled.

Taxes: $3,263

Monthly Fees: N/A

Contact: Leanne Tourney, Re/Max Joyce Tourney Realty; 306-791-7666

Handout
HandoutFormer show home with all the bells and whistles: hardwood floors, kitchen island and walk-in pantry, central air, central vac, four bathrooms and a fully finished basement.

SASKATOON

The place: Two-storey, four bedrooms, four bathrooms

List price: $504,900

Square footage: 3,975

Where: Premium Stonebridge location in the south end of the city. New development full of young families, close to shopping, parks and leisure facilities. Quick access to freeway means that downtown Saskatoon is only a short drive away.

Top features: Former show home with all the bells and whistles: hardwood floors, kitchen island and walk-in pantry, central air, central vac, four bathrooms and a fully finished basement. Open concept. Main-floor laundry.

Taxes: $3,975

Monthly Fees: N/A

Contact: Listed by Manning Luo, Re/Max Saskatoon; 306-242-6000; manning@saskatoonrealestates.ca

TORONTO

Handout
HandoutFor around $500,000 in Toronto you can get a two-bedroom townhouse and have to pay $503 per month in fees.

The place: Two-bedroom, two-storey loft townhouse with one bathroom and one parking space

List price: $489,900

Square footage: 806

Taxes: $2,802.21 in 2013

Monthly fee: Maintenance/HOA of $503 per month

Where: Excellent downtown-west location in the trendy Niagara neighbourhood, with transit, cafés and restaurants nearby. Walking distance to the 37-acre, uber-popular family- and pet-friendly Trinity Bellwoods Park.

Top features: Exposed concrete feature walls, floor-to-ceiling windows, custom kitchen, gas hookup for barbecue on its garden patio.

Contact: Brad Lamb, Brad J. Lamb Realty Inc.; 416-368-5262; brad@torontocondos.com

Faith Wilson Group
Faith Wilson GroupThis one-bedroom condo at “The Grafton”, a heritage conversion building in Yaletown in Vancouver goes for $475,000.

VANCOUVER

The place: 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom condo in The Grafton

List price: $483,000

Square footage: 850

Where: Situated in a prime Yaletown neighbourhood in the heart of downtown, with trendy eateries, entertainment, sports venues and shopping on the doorstep, as well as the seawall and myriad transportation options.

Top features: A New York-style home that merges original heritage features — exposed brickwork and wood beams — with a modern open-concept interior. Features include hardwood floors, expansive windows and a functional floor plan, a gas fireplace, custom kitchen, master bedroom with walk-in closet, five-piece ensuite, storage locker and parking stall.

Taxes: $2,000

Monthly fees: $431 per month

Contact: Faith Wilson at Faith Wilson Group; 604-224-5277; toll-free: 1-855-760-6886

WINDSOR

Postmedia News
Postmedia NewsIn Windsor you can get a four-bedroom, house with games room and office above garage, hardwood floors throughout, maple staircase and designer granite kitchen.

The place: Executive two-storey, four bedrooms, master ensuite bathroom, 2.5-car garage. Located in the suburb of Lakeshore

List price: $499,900

Square footage: 3,300

Taxes: $5,200

Where: Situated in a two-year-old subdivision, 20 minutes from downtown Windsor. Just minutes away from four golf courses and Lake St. Clair.

Top features: A games room and office above garage, hardwood floors throughout, maple staircase and designer granite kitchen, large fenced yard, covered porch and fenced, in-ground pool.

Contact: Larry Pickle, Re/Max Preferred; 519-944-5955


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