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Ratings agency Fitch says Canadian houses overpriced even as gains slow down- Consult with a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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housing-1Chicago-based credit agency Fitch Ratings says Canadian housing is still overvalued by 20% and called for additional steps to cool the market.

The company’s statement comes as new data appears to show house price gains are slowing on a national basis despite the fact there are still cities that continue to show price growth.

The Teranet Home Price Index increased 4.4% in June from a year ago, a slower pace than the 4.6% year over year jump in May.

The composite six index which covers Vancouver, Toronto, Calgary, Montreal, Ottawa and Halifax was up 4.9% in June from a year compared to a 5.1% year over year increase in May. Both the overall and the composite index were up 0.9% in June from May.

“With the housing market having now shaken off the winter blues, price are continuing to rise at a solid pace. That said, the continued deceleration in price growth on a year-over-year basis may be an indication that the Canadian housing market is becoming more balanced&,” said Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Randall Bartlett.

Still, Finch points to numbers from Canadian Real Estate Association which show home prices grew 7.1% in May on a year over year basis.

Related Canadian home prices rise in June, but 12-month inflation slows: Teranet Price surge fuels Canadians’ optimism about housing market to highest since before financial crisis “According to Fitch’s sustainable home price model, which measures home prices relative to long-term fundamentals, Canadian home prices remain approximately 20% overvalued in real terms,” the company said in its statement.

It noted building permits have picked up in recent months along with sales, supported by historically low interest rates and those factors are driving up affordability.

Policy makers may be required to take additional steps over the short term to engineer a soft landing Finch also said household debt to disposable income, which reached a record high of 164.1% in the third quarter of 2013 before declining the next two quarters, is making the market “more susceptible” to shocks from higher unemployment or interest rate increases.

The federal government has intervened in the market four times to slow housing down, among the measures being shortening amortization lengths from 40 years to 25 years. It also tightened the rules around government-backed mortgage insurance.

Fitch wants more regulation. “However, the long-term impacts remain unclear, and policy makers may be required to take additional steps over the short term to engineer a soft landing,” the agency said, in reference to the changes made.

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Calgary’s energy boom is fuelling record surge in luxury home sales – ask a Vancouver mortgage broker

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imageSotheby’s International RealtyThe estate, once owned by the Ford family of Henry Ford heritage, listed for $37.9-million, with views of the Rocky Mountains, comes with four fireplaces, $1 million in mouldings and two garages for six cars.

Twitter Google+ LinkedIn Email Comments More Larry Lindholm made his fortune in Calgary’s booming energy industry, building and selling an oilfield equipment company. Then he bought a $10.4 million mansion.

“This is the big reward,” Lindholm, 52, said from the new home he shares with wife, Kristi, 35, and their four kids. “Calgary’s a neat city to be part of, the opportunities are here right now. It’s amazing how it’s grown, with all the development taking place in the oil and gas sectors.”

The energy patch in Calgary, nicknamed “Cowtown” for its annual rodeo, and low mortgage rates are transforming Canada’s fourth largest city into a hub of luxury housing. Neighborhoods named Tuxedo Park and Hamptons are expanding as energy industry executives from Canada, the U.S. and Europe fuel record sales of Calgary’s most expensive homes.

Related Canada new home prices pushed higher by western gains Royal LePage says Canada’s big city housing markets continue to boom as small centres left behind Canada’s high-end home sales soar in first half of the year: Sotheby’s International Realty Canada

TIRION PROPERTIES LTD. Neighborhoods named Tuxedo Park and Hamptons are expanding as energy industry executives from Canada, the U.S. and Europe fuel record sales of Calgary’s most expensive homes. Lindholm’s 14,500 square-foot (1,347 square-metre) estate, which features an eight-foot Swarovski crystal chandelier, broke the record for the most expensive home sold in Calgary when he bought it last year. That mark was topped by a $11.1 million sale later that year, which in turn may be shattered by a current listing of a $37.9 million home once owned by Henry Ford’s family.

“Luxury demand is growing,” said Corinne Poffenroth, an agent for New York-based auctioneer Sotheby’s, who represented the Lindholms in their home purchase. “Our energy sector is very strong and it attracts top-ranking executives across the country and the world. There’s a lot of young new money.”

Helicopter Tours

While Vancouver and Toronto, Canada’s financial capital, boast the country’s most expensive housing, sales of luxury homes in Calgary are surging. Realtors in the city, known for sprawling suburbs and the tallest office tower in western Canada, sold 404 homes priced above $1 million in the year to June 13. That’s an all-time high for Calgary and more than 10 times the total for an entire year a decade ago, according to Calgary Real Estate Board data.

The jump in sales has been powered by oil, the most important commodity in the western province. Investment in Alberta’s oil sands may reach a peak this year of more than $30 billion, according to investment bank Peters & Co. That’s generating high-paying jobs in Calgary, Alberta’s biggest city, whose population expanded to 1.2 million last year.

Calgary has the highest concentration of millionaires in any of Canada’s major cities, according to Calgary Economic Development, a nonprofit group. Some of the city’s wealthiest residents and foreign buyers flock to tours of highly priced homes by helicopter. Sotheby’s International Realty Canada added a private helicopter service for its real estate clientele in Calgary in June, a first for the firm in Canada.

Oil Prices

“It’s a boom-bust economy that lives and dies by oil prices, and the housing market is the same,” said Robert Kavcic, Bank of Montreal senior economist in Toronto. “If you were to say what’s going to drive luxury real estate in Calgary, I’d say just oil prices.”

West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark crude, has averaged more than US$90 a barrel over the past five years, the longest stretch at that price. That stability is unusual for a volatile commodity whose price sank to US$33.87 a barrel in December 2009 from a record of almost US$150 six months earlier.

Low mortgage rates have also helped drive housing sales. Posted rates for a five-year loan have been at a record low of 4.79% since April 9. And some lenders are offering three- year variable-rate mortgages for as low as 1.99%.

Sotheby’s International RealtyThe former estate of Henry Ford’s family is guarded by a security gate and surrounded by 242-acres of pastures and several lakes in Millarville, a 45-minute drive south of Calgary. Millionaire Mortgages

Millionaires are taking home loans because a lot of their assets are tied up in investments they don’t want to liquidate, said Martin Reid, president of Home Capital Group Inc., Canada’s largest alternative mortgage provider. Lenders often offer smaller loans for luxury homes because the prices are susceptible to big fluctuations. Reid said about 5% of the homes for which his company provides mortgages across Canada are priced above $1 million.

“We’re not going to give as much of a loan on a percentage basis as you get into that luxury space,” Reid said. “If it’s a $500,000 dollar house, we loan 75% of the value. If it’s a $2 million house, we’ll likely lend 60% of the value.”

Calgary, which sprang up in 1875 as a fort town for the North-West Mounted Police along the banks of the Bow and Elbow rivers, now has at least four neighborhoods where the average house price is $1 million or higher, according to the city’s real estate board.

Sotheby’s International RealtyOn the 242 acres are two houses with mountain views, one of Alberta’s only covered bridges, horse barn, pasture, paddocks, storage and riding areas, outbuildings and several large lakes. Henry Ford

Those communities include older areas like Mount Royal. It was developed by the Canadian Pacific Railway, which owned most of the land in Calgary in the early 20th century. Bel Aire, one of the established million-dollar areas, has a view over the city’s largest reservoir and is bordered by its oldest private golf course.

The former estate of Henry Ford, the founder of Ford Motor Co., is now listed for $37.9 million, the highest in the province. The 5,000-square-foot home is guarded by a security gate and surrounded by 242-acres (98-hectare) of pastures and several lakes in Millarville, a 45-minute drive south of Calgary. The home, with views of the Rocky Mountains, comes with four fireplaces, $1 million in mouldings and two garages for six cars.

Sotheby’s International RealtyThe home, with views of the Rocky Mountains, comes with four fireplaces and $1 million in mouldings alone. Energy Executives

“Oil and gas is definitely fueling the market,” said Sam Corea, a real estate agent with Re/Max Holdings Inc. in Calgary, who’s busiest during the energy industry’s bonus season in late winter.

Corea’s typical client is a professional in the oil and gas sector between the ages of 35 and 50 who wants expensive amenities including top-tier appliances and granite countertops.

“Calgary is a much more sophisticated market than it was 10 or 15 years ago,” said Corea, who last year sold 128 homes at an average price of $943,000 each.

Corea said the city’s housing could begin to lose its glow as supply catches up to demand.

“The market is starting to feel a bit like the spring of 2007 just before it stalled,” he said. “The market edge is starting to slip away.”

Supply Grows

Homes listed at more than $500,000 jumped 42% to 1,359 units in June over the same time last year, according to the city’s real estate board. Single detached homes will be constructed this year at the highest pace since 2007, according to forecasts by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

“As this market has moved into more balanced conditions, and if inventories continue to rise, price growth should ease throughout the remainder of the year,” said the board’s chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

Lindholm, the oil entrepreneur who drives a red Ferrari, said his father gave him a warning after he bought his castle-like home.

“My dad says, ’Nice house. You’re never going to be able to sell that’,” said Lindholm, who moved his family from a home in the city that they sold for $2 million. “I think he’s right. Maybe not now because there’s a small market for this size house — but it’s growing.”

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Can you afford a home in these cities? – Ask a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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gi-carrick03rb1Housing affordability is a national disaster that begs further investigation.

The average national resale home price in May: $416,584.

The annual gross income needed to afford that price based on a 5-per-cent down payment and a five-year mortgage: $89,363.

The estimated median family employment income: $68,692.

In that $20,671 shortfall is the considerably, but not entirely, depressing story of Canada’s housing market at midyear. The bad news: Vancouver and Toronto are deserts of affordability, and Calgary’s starting to look troublesome. The good: National data obscure the fact that affordability is still reasonable in some cities.

We hear plenty about housing affordability from banks and real estate people. Now, the Personal Finance column weighs in with some analysis focused on this question: What income does it take to afford a house on a national basis and in eight cities?

For answers, a hypothetical mortgage was set up for these markets using average May resale prices as shown by the Canadian Real Estate Association, a 5-per-cent down payment and a five-year, fixed-rate mortgage at 2.99 per cent. To calculate how much income is needed to support the resulting mortgage payments, we’ll refer to the gross debt service ratio, or GDS.

It’s a standard affordability measure used by lenders, and thus is by no means a definitive guide to how well a house will fit into your life in a financial sense. To use my Real Life Ratio, click here. Still, GDS offers a rough guide to how much house you can handle. You’re considered to be onside with a house if your monthly mortgage, property tax and heating costs account for no more than 32 per cent of your gross household income.

For that average-price home on a national basis, the mortgage payment would be $1,930. Add an estimated $333 in property tax per month and $120 in heating and you end up with $2,383, which on an annualized basis is 32 per cent of $89,363. That’s the minimum income you’d need to afford a house at the national average price.

Statistics Canada’s most recent numbers are from 2011 and they show that median family employment income was $64,730. To bring that up to 2014 levels, three years of 2-per-cent income increases were factored in. That brings the median family employment income to $68,692, which is still short of the minimum income needed to buy the average national home.

Toronto and Vancouver have a big influence on this shortfall, partly because of high prices and partly because their median incomes trail other cities. Vancouver’s median family employment income is less than half of what’s needed to afford the average house, and Toronto’s is well under, too. Calgary’s estimated income levels are a little below where they need to be for a family to afford the average home, but not by nearly as much.

The affordability picture is brighter in cities such as St. John’s, Halifax, Winnipeg and Saskatoon because the cost of carrying an average home is much better aligned with incomes. Montreal’s a trouble spot, with actual household income well below the estimated income required to carry the average house.

Something to consider if you’re relating these numbers to your own situation is that they show the minimum household income needed to buy an average home. To carry a home and be in a position to afford other living costs, strive for a GDS of 25 per cent or less.

In the more expensive cities, notably Toronto and Vancouver, it’s time to acknowledge that some people will never be able to afford a house. Borrowing costs are close to as low as they can go, and the long-term outlook is for them to rise. Scratch lower borrowing costs as an affordability aid.

Falling prices would help some prospective home buyers, but it’s not as big a factor as you’d expect. In fact, average prices could drop a very sharp 20 per cent in both Toronto and Vancouver and still be well beyond the grasp of families with median income levels. The alternatives to owning a house in these cities: Buy a condo and resolve to live in it indefinitely, even with kids; buy a home in the suburbs and commute; move farther afield and relocate to a more affordable real estate market; or, give up and rent.

Another option, at least for millennials – one I’m starting to hear more about – is to move back home with your parents or your spouse’s parents and save until it hurts to build a big down payment. Or, rent a small apartment and cut discretionary spending to a bare minimum. In mid-2014, heroic savings measures are needed to own in some cities.

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Can you afford a home in these cities?

St. John’s Halifax Montreal Toronto Winnipeg Saskatoon Calgary Vancouver
Most recent average price ($) 337,822 290,587 335,937 585,204 287,026 338,195 465,579 814,418
5% downpayment ($) 16,892 14,530 16,797 29,261 14,352 16,910 23,279 40,721
Monthly mortgage payment ($)* 1,565 1,346 1,556 2,711 1,330 1,567 2,157 3,773
Monthly property tax and heating costs ($)** 453 453 453 453 453 453 453 453
Total monthly housing costs ($) 2,018 1,799 2,009 3,164 1,783 2,020 2,610 4,226
Minimum annual gross household income needed ($)*** 75,675 67,425 75,338 118,650 66,863 75,750 97,875 158,475
Estimated median family income from employment ($)**** 82,222 73,977 65,296 69,934 72,088 82,509 91,826 66,527

Household debt worries ease as pace of mortgage borrowing slows in May: study – Consult with a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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homesRoyal Bank says Canadians have been slowing down the amount of debt they are taking on to buy real estate, easing concerns about household vulnerability.

The RBC paper notes that overall household debt accumulation remained flat-lined at 4.2 per cent growth in May, about the same level as the previous three months.

Outstanding mortgage debt stood at $1.23-trillion as the annualized growth slowed slightly to five per cent from 5.1 per cent in April.

But households increased their pace of non-mortgage borrowing, the bank says, to 2.2 per cent from two per cent in April.

RBC says the steady pace of debt accumulation overall should give some comfort to the Bank of Canada, which has called household debt the No. 1 risk to the financial system and economy.

With the housing market expected to moderate further, the vulnerability posed by overly indebted households is easing, RBC says, clearing the way for the Bank of Canada to move toward higher interest rates by mid-2015.

Meanwhile, business borrowing continued to strengthen in May, with short-term debt rising to 10.6 per cent from 9.6 in April.

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Even economists say they continue to be surprised by Canada’s housing market – Consult with a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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soldRecord low interest rates have have forced Toronto-Dominion Bank to boost its forecast for the Canadian housing sector.

Economist Diana Petramala said in an economic report that TD’s forecast in January was banking on an increase in interest rates that has not materialized.

“Interest rates, unexpectedly, reversed course beginning in March. Five-year mortgage rates currently sit at their lowest record on level,” Ms. Petramala wrote, noting that existing home sales in May were well above their 10-year average.

More strength may be bubbling under the surface

The demand for housing pushed May average resale price growth to 7.1% on a year over year basis which is well above income growth. The home price-to-income ratio is at a new high.

Now the economist is suggesting the housing market may have some more strength in 2014 although the general view is the market will cool over the medium term.

“More strength may be bubbling under the surface,” said Ms. Petramala, noting reports of bidding wars may point to very strong demand for single family homes.

On the condo side, lower interest rates combined with prices has made affordability of condos “more favourable” than ever. “First-time homebuyers who were pushed out of the market due to the past tightening in mortgage insurance regulations may find it easier to jump back in,” she wrote.

TD is forecasting that the “moderate” overpriced and overbuilt housing market will not be impacted until 2015 when interest rates start to rise. The bank is predicting condo prices will fall by 2% in 2015.

Single family home prices will also feel the pinch after rising by 8% this year, according to the forecast. In 2015, single family family home prices are expected to rise by 2%.

Ms. Petramala emphasized that housing will continue to be a regional story, even as it turns into a buyer’s market in 2015.

Victoria, Toronto and Victoria are “flagged” as markets more vulnerable to a cool down because of recent strength while Calgary and Edmonton are poised for continued expansion based on employment and populations.

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Canada building permits spike 13.8% in May – Ask a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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housingstarts_getty3OTTAWA — Statistics Canada says municipalities issued building permits worth $6.9 billion in May, up 13.8% from April.

The agency says the increase in May resulted primarily from higher construction intentions for commercial buildings in Ontario and Manitoba, as well as multi-family dwellings in British Columbia.

It says the total value of permits has been on a slight upward trend since the beginning of 2014.

Gains were posted in every province in May, except Quebec and Nova Scotia, with the largest increases recorded in Ontario, British Columbia and Manitoba.

Construction intentions for residential dwellings rose 9.5% to $4.1 billion in May, the third consecutive monthly increase.

In the non-residential sector, the value of permits rose 20.8% to $2.8 billion.

China’s shadow banking system could bring down the world’s hottest property markets – Consult with a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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Chinese investors are major players in the international real estate markets.

shadowThe country’s outbound property investment totaled US$2.1 billion in Q1 2014, according to Jones Lang LaSalle.

And now there are concerns about the quality of the loans that have fed into international property markets.

“Will China’s capital flight fuel property bubbles overseas or cause a collapse when China’s liquidity dries up?” wrote Andrew Collier, managing director, Orient Capital Research.

In an email titled “Will China’s Shadow Banking Kill the International Property Market?” Collier writes that the US$2.1 billion figure most likely understates true outbound Chinese property investment because it is hard to track shadow lending.

“Shadow lending is about 40% of total loans so the figure for property investment could easily be double US$2.1 billion — or more,” writes Collier. “More important, the funds are targeted in just a few places; just three cities, Chicago (who knew?), London and Sydney account for 50% of investment. No doubt, Los Angeles and New York will catch up soon.”

China saw US$464 million in outbound real estate investment Q1 in 2014 into Chicago. US$38 million into London, US$242 million into Sydney, US$150 million in Melbourne and US$144 million into Los Angeles. From Collier:

“Let’s say overseas property investment reaches US$10 billion in a year or so due to capital flight. How much of that will be backed by bad loans? What will the default rate be? This is an important question of you are a hedge fund buying up hundreds of properties in key areas. If the wind is sucked out of the market by defaulting Chinese buyers, it will impact property values significantly.

Official Non-performing Loan (NPL) ratios for Chinese banks are less than 1% (0.93% for Bank of China in 1H 2013). But much of the cash invested in foreign real estate will come from the shadow market. We don’t have good data for NPLs in shadow loans, partly because there are many different lender including Trusts, banks through wealth management products, pawnshops etc. But a ballpark figure of 10% would be realistic. If we assume 10% of US$10 billion, that’s US$1 billion in defaulting property loans. Half of those, or US$500 million alone, will be in a few cities such as Sydney, London and Chicago.”

Australia raises the alarm

We’ve already seen concerns about this in Australia. In late June, local media reported that Ed Husic, Labor MP in Australia, said that shadow banking in China is a cause for concern for Australia’s property market.

“With the rise of the shadow banking system in China, where people are going outside of the banking system to be able to finance investment, there are some concerns about the quality of the loans and whether or not they will actually be durable,” Husic told the ABC.

In late June, local media reported that Ed Husic, Labor MP in Australia, said that shadow banking in China is a cause for concern for Australia’s property market.

“With the rise of the shadow banking system in China, where people are going outside of the banking system to be able to finance investment, there are some concerns about the quality of the loans and whether or not they will actually be durable,” Husic told the ABC. Husic was concerned about the quality of the loans.

“…If those loans are being used to finance development in Australia, and if they fall over, what is the exposure of the Australian banking system to that?” “I think these are things we are very keen to pursue and we will be looking to talk to the Reserve Bank further about that in due course.”

Chinese regulators have been moving to curb shadow banking, but it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out in the international property market.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/china-shadow-banking-hurt-foreign-property-market-2014-7#ixzz36nie2PQR

Credit unions: A cheaper, under-the-radar mortgage option – Ask a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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156350123When you last shopped for a mortgage, did you consult with a credit union? If you’re like more than four out of five recent home buyers, you didn’t.

Most mortgage shoppers overlook credit unions (CUs) because they think the rates aren’t good enough, or CUs aren’t convenient enough, or that they’ll save more by consolidating banking at their bank. But credit unions are dead set on changing those perceptions, and they’re fuelling mortgage competition in the process.

We saw that competitive spirit in February when Meridian, the country’s fourth-largest credit union, became the first major financial institution in 2014 with a five-year fixed mortgage under 3 per cent. That first mover advantage paid off. “Our pipeline of mortgages is double what it was last year,” says Meridian chief member services officer Bill Whyte.

And just this month, Ontario’s DUCA Financial Services launched the lowest five-year fixed rate in the country through select mortgage brokers.

As we speak, the top 10 CUs are advertising five-year fixed rates that average 0.56 percentage points lower than the top 10 banks, according to RateSpy.com. That’s not including the profit sharing that some CUs pay mortgage customers. These “member dividends” can range up to $200-plus per year for every $100,000 of mortgage.

Of course, banks can and do offer “discretionary” rates below their advertised rates. But discretionary rates aren’t visible on the Internet, where four out of five consumers go to research mortgages. That benefits credit unions, to the extent they publish lower advertised rates.

Like credit unions, banks are also recognizing that low rates can sell themselves. Bank of Montreal’s much-publicized 2.99-per-cent promotions helped make it No. 1 among big banks in mortgage market share growth since 2012. And now we’re seeing other banks jump on that bandwagon, including Bank of Nova Scotia and Toronto-Dominion Bank, which both ran sub-3 per cent five-year fixed specials this spring.

But credit unions are going a little further to win mortgage share, and people are taking notice. In 2013, CU mortgage portfolios grew 58 per cent faster than the overall market. And they show no signs of letting up.

CUs kicked their mortgage campaigns into high gear last summer. And the market share growth chart at the bottom of this column shows it. Credit union analyst David McVay, of McVay and Associates, attributes that growth spurt largely to credit unions’ “aggressive pricing.”

But low rates aren’t their only edge. CUs also pitch that they are member owned, not owned by outside investors. They don’t have to pay dividends to 3rd-party shareholders, which lets them work on smaller margins and/or pay dividends to their customers instead.

Regulation is also an advantage. “Being provincially regulated, we have more mortgage options available to our members than the big banks,” Meridian’s Mr. Whyte says, “… and we’re appropriately leveraging that, albeit not cutting any corners.”

Those mortgage “advantages” vary widely by credit union, but can include higher borrowing limits on a home equity line of credit, 35-year amortizations for those putting down 20 per cent or more, 100 per cent financing and easier qualification rules for conventional variable-rate mortgages and terms less than five years.

But if credit unions are so great, why do they have a piddly 8 to 13 per cent of mortgage market share, depending on whose statistics you believe?

Awareness is a major challenge. CUs don’t have $200-million to $300-million a year to spend on marketing like the banks do. “I would suggest we haven’t got our story out there about how co-operative banking is an alternative to the banks … and the fact that we can do almost everything the banks can do,” Mr. Whyte says.

To counter that, CUs are increasingly running high-profile rate specials, some of which are being picked up by the media. They’re also doing a lot of joint marketing. Last year, for example, a group of Ontario credit unions got together to promote co-operative banking. They’ve never done that before, Mr. Whyte says.

One area where banks outclass most credit unions is mortgage funding, an area where credit unions are clearly not created equal. However, the larger CUs – Vancouver City Savings Credit Union, Coast Capital, Servus and Meridian – can compete with the big banks through their access to millions of dollars of cheap deposits, their main source of mortgage funding.

After deposits, the next cheapest way to fund mortgages is securitization – i.e., packing mortgages and selling them to investors. And CUs are securitizing like never before. In Ontario, for example, CU mortgage securitization grew 36.2 per cent last quarter, dramatically faster than the industry.

Compared to the big boys, smaller credit unions don’t have as much low-cost capital, so they’re often not as competitive on rates. But even there you can find exceptions, like Toronto’s Slovenia Credit Union and its 2.89-per-cent five-year fixed.

The Internet is the great equalizer for micro-credit unions like Slovenia. Whenever they have excess deposits to lend out, they can cheaply advertise ultra-low rates online to thousands of potential customers. “The Internet will help [credit unions] level the playing field with the big banks,” Mr. Whyte adds.

The Internet also makes it easier to attract new customers. Meridian, for example, is launching a new website next month that lets people join the credit union online, instead of driving to a branch.

Despite their co-operative spirit, however, CUs have an uphill battle to steal share from the dominant banks. Banks are ubiquitous and perceived safe, so people park most of their accounts with them. Moreover, consumers’ preference for one-stop financial shopping gives banks an edge in the mortgage game.

But mortgages are a big deal to CUs too. They account for about half of their revenue and roughly 60 per cent of the loans they make. Furthermore, mortgages give them a chance to cross-sell things such as credit cards, GICs and RRSPs.

So despite being around for 113 years, this is only the beginning for Canadian credit unions in the mortgage market. They’re going to battle to the bone for your mortgage, and the competition they incite will benefit all borrowers.

Editor’s note: A previous version of this story mis-identified Mr. Whyte.

Robert McLister is a mortgage planner at intelliMortgage Inc. and founder ofRateSpy.com. You can follow him on Twitter at @RateSpy and@CdnMortgageNews.

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Don’t get complacent about risks of housing downturn, OSFI warns lenders and insurers – Consult with a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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homesCanada’s top banking regulator is urging mortgage lenders and insurers not to grow complacent despite healthy bank capital levels and predictions of a soft landing in the housing market.

In a speech at a C.D. Howe Institute housing conference on Thursday, Mark Zelmer, deputy superintendent of the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, highlighted the continuing growth in household debt relative to income.

“I would not presume to claim that borrowers are acting irrationally or do not know what they are doing. But, by same token, it is clear that the ability of the household sector as a whole to absorb major shocks is less now than it was a decade ago,” Mr. Zelmer said in his prepared remarks.

It is clear that the ability of the household sector as a whole to absorb major shocks is less now than it was a decade ago

“Moreover, with interest rates near record low levels, there is not much scope for interest rates in Canada or the United States to fall further – something that helped people weather storms in the past,” he said.

Mr. Zelmer said having well-capitalized lenders might not be enough in times of stress, noting that creditors and investors often lose confidence in financial institutions before they run out of capital.

“Recall that some financial institutions lost access to funding markets in the midst of the global financial crisis even though they were reporting healthy regulatory capital ratios at the time,” he said. “Sitting back and relying on capital is not enough for either financial institutions or prudential supervisors.”

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Mr. Zelmer said stress tests, which so far indicate Canadian banks are prepared for a downturn, should not be viewed as overarching “safe harbours” because they are based on models and arbitrary assumptions.

“The results are … comforting. But given the considerable uncertainty associated with stress test results, they are but one input into our decision-making,” Mr. Zelmer said.

“Boards and senior management of financial institutions need to apply judgment in a forward-looking manner and not become too complacent in their capital planning exercises.”

While Canada’s recent housing activity has been far less troubled in recent years than in other markets such as the United States, Mr. Zelmer reminded his audience of the downturn experienced a couple of decades ago.

“Canada has not been immune from significant real estate corrections in the past and the damage they can inflict, as those of you who worked in the early 1980s and 1990s would know,” he said.

“We all have an interest in ensuring housing markets and the financial intermediation supporting them function smoothly.”

Mr. Zelmer noted that consumer debt relative to household income continues to grow at a rate of 4%. And while this is slower than in the past, he noted a small but important group of Canadians who are in a potentially difficult situation “camouflaged” by low interest rates. This group is taking on debt “to make ends meet in the wake of unfortunate life events such as job losses or marriage breakdowns,” he said.

This situation could prove especially tough if house prices don’t remain as strong as expected.

“We believe it makes sense to work with mortgage lenders and insurers to reduce the likelihood of serious problems in the first place by promoting strong governance and risk management controls around mortgage lending and insurance underwriting activities,” Mr. Zelmer said. “This is especially true given residential real estate lending represents more than 60 per cent of bank lending in Canada.”

In his speech, Mr. Zelmer said mortgage underwriting practices have evolved. And while they appear good today, he warned, “past experience suggests that it could become very tempting in the current environment for mortgage lenders and insurers to ease up under the enchanting lull of the siren song of market share.”

‘HGTV effect’ pushes home renovation spending to record $63-billion – Consult with a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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home-renovationTORONTO • It could be just the impact of all those home-renovation television programs, but Canadians are fixing up their properties like never before, according to a new report.

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“Willingness, at least in part, can be attributed to what is sometimes referred to as the HGTV effect,” Toronto-based real estate consultants Altus Group said, referring to the television station HGTV Canada that launched in 1997 with an emphasis on home renovation. “Many homeowners did not know how badly they really wanted new designer kitchens until then.”

Renovation spending has been rising for 15 straight years and reached a record $63.4-billion in 2013, which accounted for 3.7% of total Canadian gross domestic product, Altus said. More money is being spent on renovation than on all new home construction.

It’s not just leaky roofs that are part of that spending; three of every four renovation dollars are being spent on real home improvement. In real dollar terms, renovation spending jumped 2.7% in 2013.

Altus is predicting about 3% growth in real dollar terms in renovation spending both this year and next as homeowners turn to sprucing up their abodes in the face of record home prices.

“Broad economic and employment growth in 2014 are positive for higher disposable income. This, combined with still robust home sales and continued low interest rates, should support further growth,” Altus said in the report, released Monday.

Canada has a larger housing stock than it did a decade ago, which is partly why renovation spending has more than doubled since the latter 1990s. But Altus estimates only 25% of the growth is due to the greater number of houses, with three quarters of that attributable to people just spending more per housing unit.

In the past five years, renovation per occupied housing unit was about $4,600 per year, up from $2,500 per year from the 1994-1998 period.

Home owners pulled money out of their homes only to put it right back in

Altus said there is a “willingness and ability” to undertake renovation work.

The willingness may come from seeing fancy kitchens on TV, but the ability to pay for these renovations can be attributed to lower interest rates and rising home values that have left homeowners with more equity to tap into for a substantial upgrade.

“Essentially, home owners pulled money out of their homes only to put it right back in,” said Altus, which found mortgage financing and home equity lines of credit were the most common method to get cash for a project.

However, Altus also noted statistics from Bank of Canada show many people have the cash to do projects without borrowing. From 1999-2010, borrowing only accounted for 25% of all renovation work.

Alberta is expected to lead the pack in renovation spending in 2014 and 2015 with the Altus survey indicating a growth in spending of 5% each year in the province.

On a dollar level, Ontario and Quebec still account for most of the activity in the country with two of every three renovation dollars spent in those provinces. Ontario spending is forecast to grow 2.6% next year, just below the 2.9% national average.


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