Bruce Coleman Mortgage Brokers

Say Goodbye To Forward Guidance From The Bank Of Canada

Canadian Mortgage News

CMI 101 Series

Dreyer Group 101 Series

Financial FYI Series

First Time Buyers

Home Buying 101

Home Insurance

Latest News

Mortgage Rates

Refinancing

Retirement Planning

Self Employed

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is signalling that it’s time to take off the training wheels; that the central bank will no longer be there to hold the market’s hand.

In more technical terms, the governor announced that the Bank would no longer be providing forward guidance – essentially, a paragraph, sentence, or phrase in its policy statement that provides an indication of which way the overnight rate is likely to go, how long it might stay at a given level, or what might cause it to change.

Poloz made this declaration in a discussion paper on Friday and reiterated this shift in comments to the press.

(As an aside, the governor noted that a working version of this paper had been presented at the Moneco-Econtro Summer Conference in Kingston – his private speech. However, attendees confirmed that Poloz did not provide a hint that he was on the verge of removing forward guidance at that point in time.)

When Mark Carney’s Bank of Canada introduced forward guidance in April 2009, the assertion that interest rates would stay low for a prolonged period of time helped flatten the yield curve, effectively easing financial conditions:

However, the governor made the case that there’s a downside to making a commitment of this nature: that traders will make one-way, levered bets based on the central bank’s stance. When a central bank appears to be on the verge of shifting its forward guidance, this can cause volatility to surge. “The volatility of a return to two-way trading is the future price of successful forward guidance today,” Poloz wrote.

Moreover, it’s difficult for monetary policymakers to provide credible forward guidance when their models aren’t doing a fabulous job of capturing  and forecasting post-recession realities. Guidance is inherently linked to the central bank’s view of how economic events will unfold – an outlook that has been, in the Bank of Canada’s case, riddled with uncertainty.

According to Poloz, forward guidance should be “reserved primarily for use at the zero lower bound, as a form of additional insurance that the economy will return to equilibrium.”

One could argue that the Bank of Canada already de facto removed forward guidance (at least partially) when the tightening bias was eliminated in October 2013 and replaced it with a data-dependent neutral bias. So this move could be described as:

The data-dependent neutral bias is dead. Long live the data-dependent neutral bias!

The omission of a phrase indicating that interest rates could go up or down depending on the data flow is merely an affirmation that interest rates could up or down depending on the data flow.

The governor admitted as much in his discussion paper. “Our experience…dropping the previously announced tightening bias, suggests that offering instead full transparency on the risks that the central bank is weighing causes the market to assess new information more or less as the central bank does; and because every data point can give rise to a debate between economists, the market remains two-way and less vulnerable to unusual leveraging and volatile shifts in sentiment,” he wrote.

So practically speaking, this changes nothing for the time being.

The only difference – and it’s a big one – is the market won’t get a signal from the Bank of Canada once a rate hike is back on the table – participants will have to figure out how the data flow is affecting the central bank’s stance.

While the governor seems to think that this will lead to less parsing of its policy statements, per Randall Palmer ofReuters, one could also make the case the opposite will occur. Instead of looking for tiny tweaks in one part of the statement, market participants will now likely pick through the entire statement with a fine-toothed comb to glean whether a rate hike is coming sooner or later than they anticipated. For example: The Bank is now saying that underlying inflation is now “slightly below target” rather than just “below target” – does that mean a rate hike is coming in April instead of July?

Of course, this extreme parsing already happens, and regardless of whether the Bank’s language is examined more or less closely than before, the end result is the same. As Poloz put it, ending forward guidance shifts “some of the policy uncertainty from the central bank’s plate back onto the market’s place.”

There’s one key unanswered question about the latest evolution of Bank of Canada policy: why now? The Canadian economy is still far away from home; why not wait until, say, the output gap has closed or rates are up to the ‘new neutral’ level to make this change?

Well, Stephen Poloz has prided himself on being an ‘honest’ central banker – even though some of his statements on currency fluctuations could be kindly characterized as misleading.

Perhaps, two weeks away from an interest rate decision and Monetary Policy Report, the Bank of Canada could no longer honestly say that a rate cut is just as likely as a hike.

Rather than admit that the chances of a  rate cut were going from slim to nil as the domestic data flow improved and American economy began to pick up steam, the governor has artfully avoided making what would be construed as a hawkish shift by choosing to say nothing whatsoever on that subject.

Housing still cheaper in popular U.S. snowbird states than 2006 peak levels, new report shows

Canadian Mortgage News

CMI 101 Series

Dreyer Group 101 Series

Financial FYI Series

First Time Buyers

Home Buying 101

Home Insurance

Latest News

Mortgage Rates

Refinancing

Retirement Planning

Self Employed

TORONTO – Housing prices in popular U.S. snowbird destinations are rising but are still below peak levels seen in 2006, says a new report.

The outlook by BMO Financial Group says overall, housing prices in the U.S. have increased by 20% in the last two years, but are only about halfway to the peak levels seen eight years ago.

For instance, homes in Miami, Fla., are down 52% compared with 2006 prices; Las Vegas homes are down 43%; Tampa, Fla., homes are down about 34% and Phoenix homes are down about 30%.

The average house price in Florida, which remains the most popular state for Canadian buyers, is US$124,000 — about half the price of a house in Canada.

There are more than 500,000 Canadians who currently own real estate in Florida, says the report.

Sal Guatieri a senior economist with BMO Capital Markets says it’s expected that U.S. house prices will continue to rise as the American economy and job growth gains further strength.

“We also expect the U.S. greenback to rise moderately further against the Canadian dollar, boosting capital gains appreciation for Canadians who purchase U.S. property,” he said.

No matter what statistics show, Canada’s housing boom is about to end, experts say

Canadian Mortgage News

CMI 101 Series

Dreyer Group 101 Series

Financial FYI Series

First Time Buyers

Home Buying 101

Home Insurance

Latest News

Mortgage Rates

Refinancing

Retirement Planning

Self Employed

It might be hard to convince some Canadians the end of the housing boom is near based on new statistics from the Canadian Real Estate Association which show prices still rising.

But the growing consensus, even in the face of record valuations for homes in Canada’s three most expensive cities, is that prices will flatten out — a thesis even supported by one of Canada’s largest real estate companies.

Ottawa-based CREA said Wednesday that sales across the country were up 10.6% in September from a year ago, though down 1.6% from August. The average price of a home climbed 5.9% from a year ago to $408,795.

“Momentum going into the the fourth quarter is showing tentative signs of waning,” says Gregory Klump, chief economist with CREA, noting low interest rates continue to support increased prices in the country’s more expensive cities.

What concerns me is some buyers seems to have this view that prices can only go up

But even Calgary, Toronto and Vancouver are unlikely to see the same gains in 2015 and Canadians in general are going to have to get used to a new reality in the housing market, where price gains drop below long-term averages, says Royal LePage chief executive Phil Soper.

“To be clear, we expect home prices to continue to grow in the months ahead, but at a slower rate than we have seen in recent years,” he said. “I don’t see prices going negative. Over the last 60 years home prices have appreciated in this country on average 5%. We are going to have more and more markets below that.”

Buyers entering the market today could be in for a long period of no growth in the price of their home but Mr. Soper says that’s probably not something they’ll be worried about.

“Buyers seem to reach a point in their life cycle, whether age, marriage or money saved, where they want to buy a house and enter the market regardless,” he says.

But David Madani, an economist with Canada Economics who has called for a major correction, wonders whether some consumers are even prepared for a flat market let alone one that is falling.

“What concerns me is some buyers seems to have this view that prices can only go up,” says Mr. Madani. “People feel it’s a one-way bet. A lot of younger people seem to think that if they don’t get in now on the home ownership ladder, they’ll miss out. Some of these people will come to regret this decision. In the more expensive markets, it’s almost like a capitulation where they say ‘If I don’t buy now, I’ll never own a home’. This is what happens in a housing bubble.”

Finn Poschmann, vice-president of research at the C.D. Howe Institute, says you can’t deny there is a sense of “getting in while the getting is good” but adds there is a big difference between prices tapering off and declining.

He does says debt levels are manageable for now but there’s not much room for them to increase which would help fuel price growth. “The growth rate [in prices] we have seen simply will not be sustained forever simply because it can’t be, whichever the major market you are looking at,” said Mr. Poschmann.

Still, there is evidence in the market that Canada’s debt problem — at least as far as mortgage debt — is not as bad as might be feared. Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist with CIBC, says 30% to 40% of Canadian households are now accelerating their mortgage payments which means 40% to 50% of Canadian households have an amortization period of less than 20 years.

“I think there is still some temptation [to take on more debt],” said Mr. Tal. “If there is an increase in prices it will come because of demand [driven by cheap mortgages]. But mostly I do think this is a market that is getting tired. If you want to flip, you have no reason to be in this market. If you want to live in a place, interest rates are still low.”

Tips For First Time Home Buyers- Ask a Vancouver Mortgage broker

Canadian Mortgage News

CMI 101 Series

Dreyer Group 101 Series

Financial FYI Series

First Time Buyers

Home Buying 101

Home Insurance

Latest News

Buying a home can have many advantages. Owning your own home instead of renting can provide security to you and your family. With your new home, you have the freedom to renovate as well as not have a landlord. Purchasing a home is a great investment for your future. Before you take the plunge and make a commitment, consider some advice for a first time home buyer.

As a long term real estate agent in the Greater Toronto Area,Karen Kubisoffers these three tips:

1.    Consider your Finances.  Before buying a home, make sure that other areas of your life, like a personal business or education, do not require financial savings as well or make sure that you can afford both. When you buy your first home, you should have enough saved to put down at least five per cent of the purchase price for your down payment. If you are able to save more than five per cent, then that is even better. Your job and home should be stable.

2.    Meet with a Mortgage Broker. It is best to assess what you can afford. By meeting with a mortgage broker, they will be able to tell you how much you can afford based on your savings and your annual income. Shop around for the best rates, terms, and options before you make a decision. If you have not been pre-approved for a mortgage, try using an online mortgage calculator to see your rate and monthly payments. First time home buyers can also take advantage of the government’s Home Buyers Plan. With this, you can use up to $25,000 of an RRSP towards the purchase of your home. This is tax free as long as you pay it back within 15 years.

3.    Ask Questions. While shopping for your first home, ask yourself as well as the other home owners and realtors questions. Consider what you will need – how many bedrooms, bathrooms, and garages? Do you want a condo or a single family home? Will you be having children? What type of neighbourhood do you want to live in? Consider everything from the size of the backyard and most importantly the location. Ask yourself if there are schools around or if your first home is close to your work. Consider all of these very important questions before making a final purchase.

As a first time home buyer, it can be a very overwhelming experience. When you are ready to settle on buying a home, get this advice and more from an experienced realtor

Spending on renovations outpaces new home construction

Canadian Mortgage News

CMI 101 Series

Dreyer Group 101 Series

Financial FYI Series

First Time Buyers

Home Buying 101

Home Insurance

Latest News

Mortgage Rates

Refinancing

Retirement Planning

Self Employed

More money was spent renovating homes in Canada than building new ones during the 12 months to the end of June, according to data compiled by the Bank of Montreal.

“In the four quarters through [the second quarter], renovation activity outpaced investment in new residential construction $48.4-billion to $46.3-billion, as the latter has rolled over recently,” BMO economist Robert Kavcic pointed out in a recent research note. “Indeed, while new construction spending was down in recent quarters, renovation spending accelerated to a 6.9 per cent year-over-year clip in Q2.”

That fits recent findings from Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce economist Benjamin Tal. He noticed that prices of higher-priced homes are rising faster than prices of lower-priced homes in cities such as Toronto, Ottawa, Calgary and Edmonton. That’s making it harder for homeowners to trade up to a bigger or better home. “Regardless of what your starting point is, and by how much your property has appreciated, the desired move up target is getting further and further out of reach,” Mr. Tal wrote in a research note last month.

So homeowners are increasingly choosing to renovate. “Over the past five years, spending on home renovations as a share of total residential investment averaged close to 46 per cent – by far the largest share on record,” Mr. Tal wrote.

The increasing inability to trade up is not the only factor that economists foresee weighing on the number of homes changing hands. “An aging population – the proportion of Canadians aged 65 and over is expected to climb from 15 per cent in 2013 to 23 per cent by 2030 – will reduce housing turnover, and the volume of listings and sales transactions,” Bank of Nova Scotia economist Adrienne Warren wrote in a research note Thursday. “The likelihood of moving in any given year declines progressively with age. Between 2006 and 2011, only 11 per cent of homeowners aged 65 and over changed residences, compared with 34 per cent of all other homeowners.”

With a larger elderly population staying put in their homes, and a rising proportion of homeowners unable to trade up, demand for renovation work could stay strong.

Ms. Warren estimates that annual growth in the number of Canadian households should remain relatively high around 180,000 to the end of the decade, before gradually declining to around 150,000 by 2030.

“By 2020, the bulk of the relatively large baby echo generation will have formed independent households, while the share of the population 75 and over begins to climb more rapidly,” she wrote. “This level of household formation is consistent with a sustainable annual pace of housing starts, including replacement demand, of around 155,000 in 2030, down from around 185,000 today.”

But Ms. Warren added that even with the slowdown in household formation, Canada’s total housing stock (both rental units and those for owner-occupiers) will have to expand by more than 2.5 million units between now and 2030 to meet the needs of the population.

So, while renovations will likely remain strong, new home construction will still be a force in the economy.

Follow Tara Perkins on Twitter: @taraperkins

We’re paying off mortgages faster than thought

Canadian Mortgage News

CMI 101 Series

Dreyer Group 101 Series

Financial FYI Series

First Time Buyers

Home Buying 101

Home Insurance

Latest News

Mortgage Rates

Refinancing

Retirement Planning

Self Employed

TORONTO – A new report suggests that Canadian homeowners are paying down their mortgages faster than they’re being given credit for.

CIBC deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal says homeowners are taking advantage of record-low interest rates to accelerate their mortgage payments, and shorten their amortization periods.

The CIBC World Markets study says that homeowners are paying an additional $11 billion a year in principal that isn’t being officially recognized by the Bank of Canada.

It suggests that an estimated 30 to 40 per cent of households with mortgages are accelerating their payments. While 40 to 50 per cent of borrowers are estimated to have amortization periods of less than 20 years, rather than the standard 25 years.

Tal says that means the debt-service ratio in the Canadian mortgage market — what it costs to carry a mortgage as a share of disposable income — is 7.3 per cent, one point higher than the 6.3 per cent officially used in calculations by the Bank of Canada.

TRY: Mortgage Payment Calculator »

Tal adds that this makes the Canadian housing market much more stable than previously thought, if interest rates were to rise.

“Canadian households did not only resist the temptation of low rates, they used those low rates to pay down debt at a pace not seen before,” he said.

“Despite a lethargic labour market and an unemployment rate that is still too high for the Bank of Canada’s liking, debt service performance in Canada has almost never been better.”

Scotiabank’s Porter Calls Canada Bubble Fears Overblown – Ask a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

Canadian Mortgage News

CMI 101 Series

Dreyer Group 101 Series

Financial FYI Series

First Time Buyers

Home Buying 101

Home Insurance

Latest News

Mortgage Rates

Refinancing

Retirement Planning

Self Employed

Canadian concerns about a housing bubble are overblown in a country where credit growth is modest and the job market is stable, says Bank of Nova Scotia Chief Executive Officer Brian Porter.

“Bubble is perhaps the most overused word since the global financial crisis,” Porter said in an interview yesterday in Washington, referring to Canada’s housing market. “We are very comfortable in terms of our exposure, we think we have monitored it well, and we stress test that.”

Domestic mortgages worth about C$200 billion ($179 billion) are the biggest part of the Toronto-based lender’s balance sheet, Porter said, and the value of those assets can withstand even major jumps in unemployment or interest rates. Gains in housing in Toronto, a focus of concern among regulators after a surge in prices and condominium construction, are backed by population growth, he said.

“Canadian consumers have generally a very conservative attitude towards debt, and their household balance sheet including other assets is in very good shape,” Porter said.

Canada’s ratio of household debt to disposable income rose to 163.6 percent between April and June, close to the record 164.1 percent in the third quarter of last year, Statistics Canada said Sept. 12. The drop in the average five-year fixed mortgage rate to the lowest in decades at 4.8 percent this year has fueled unexpected gains in home prices and resales, which reached the highest in more than four years in August.

Consumer credit growth is close to the rate of inflation, between 2 percent and 2.5 percent, Porter said. Last week, Canada reported the jobless rate fell to the lowest in almost six years in September on the largest monthly increase in employment since May 2013.

Biggest Risk

The biggest risk for Canada is losing out on global demand for its commodities by failing to build a network of export pipelines, Porter said.

“The Canadian economy has to graduate from what has been a housing-development led recovery coming out of the global financial crisis, and there has to be spending in the real economy,” he said.

He cited delays in building liquefied natural gas terminals on the west coast.

“Canada basically produces what the world wants, whether it’s grains, potash, uranium, oil and gas,” Porter said. “But the consumers of these have choices, whether it’s the Japanese, the Koreans, the Chinese, so Canadians shouldn’t be too complacent here and capital doesn’t like uncertainty.”

“The consequences are significant, economically and otherwise,” he said.

Latin Focus

Scotiabank, Canada’s third-biggest lender by assets, will keep its focus on Latin American markets such as Chile, Mexico, Peru and Colombia. Governments are seeking to finance new infrastructure projects and grow the middle class, Porter said.

“As the middle class expands, they consume and we are there for them to provide the auto loan, the mortgage, the wealth management products,” he said. Infrastructure projects in the region “it will continue to be a big favorable business for us.”

Faster U.S. growth will also boost economies across the hemisphere, Porter said, meaning things may turn out better than the “new mediocre” scenario laid out this week by the International Monetary Fund. “Things aren’t quite as bleak as the headlines would make them out,” he said.

Scotiabank has money for new acquisitions even after it made about 20 transactions through the global financial crisis, if the price is right, Porter said.

“We are disciplined, we aren’t in a hurry to do anything, so we will see how things shake out,” he said. “We are investing in our business, we are growing our business organically too, and we think that’s very important.”

Consumer Banking

For consumers, Scotiabank will keep expanding its mobile banking services and keep more traditional bank branches that customers value for discussing first mortgages and wealth management advice, he said.

“Branches are going to continue to be important, so you have to offer all the products,” he said.

Porter said there may be one traditional product that fades out over time: the paper check. Asked if they will disappear at some point, he said, “I think so for sure.”

“But people talk about cash disappearing too, I think cash grew at 4 percent in Canada last year, so these things will be with us for a while longer,” he said.

“Checks are a bit of a buggy whip business.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Greg Quinn in Washington at gquinn1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Badertscher atpbadertscher@bloomberg.net Gail DeGeorge

Canadians’ debt payoffs rise as mortgage principal payments targeted

Canadian Mortgage News

CMI 101 Series

Dreyer Group 101 Series

Financial FYI Series

First Time Buyers

Home Buying 101

Home Insurance

Latest News

Mortgage Rates

Refinancing

Retirement Planning

Self Employed

Contrary to all the hype about consumer debt levels, Canadians are actually paying off their debts at a faster rate than the Bank of Canada estimates, says Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce economist Benjamin Tal.

Indeed, he says consumers are being quite responsible in the face of extremely tempting low interest rates. True, they are still spending a lot, but they’re using less credit than normal.

A prime example is homes. There has been a decoupling since the financial crisis between housing sales and mortgage activity, Mr. Tal found. Unit sales have kept up, but growth in mortgage credit hasn’t.

“Unit sales are still running at a pace of between 35,000 and 40,000 per month,” Mr. Tal writes in a research note released Wednesday. “But if in the past this level of activity required a double-digit rise in mortgages outstanding, today it is supported by less than half that pace.”

Part of the reason for this is that people are increasingly paying back principal. “Taking advantage of low rates, an estimated 30 per cent to 40 per cent of households with mortgages now accelerate payments in a way that de-facto shortens their amortization,” Mr. Tal writes. Between 40 to 50 per cent of borrowers are estimated to face an amortization period of less than 20 years “and it shows,” he adds. “Over the past year principal payments rose four times faster than new mortgages. Today, for every mortgage dollar taken, a record high 90 cents of principal are being paid back.”

The amortization period is important. The Bank of Canada bases its estimate of the mortgage debt service ratio on the assumption that the average amortization period is 25 years. Mr. Tal suggests that in the current environment the average is probably closer to 20 years. If he’s right, that means that Canadian households are making $11-billion more in principal payments per year than the bank’s official estimate.

That could mean that we don’t have to worry quite as much as we have been about the impact of rising interest rates.

“That extra cushion is sufficient to absorb the first 100-basis-point increase in the effective mortgage rate, with households simply re-amortizing to offset the payment increase,” Mr. Tal says.

That certainly doesn’t mean we shouldn’t worry at all, as some people are still vulnerable. And, Mr. Tal notes, there’s still time for the risks to rise between now and a rate hike.

“So far, it appears that not only have many households resisted the temptation of low rates but, in fact, they used those rates to pay down debt at a rate not seen before. But it is not over yet. The Bank of Canada is determined to keep low rates for as long as possible – further testing the willpower of Canadians,” he concludes.

Follow Tara Perkins on Twitter: @taraperkins

Canadian home sales fall for first time in nine months

Canadian Mortgage News

CMI 101 Series

Dreyer Group 101 Series

Financial FYI Series

First Time Buyers

Home Buying 101

Home Insurance

Latest News

Mortgage Rates

Refinancing

Retirement Planning

Self Employed

OTTAWA — Sales of existing homes cooled in September as they fell 1.4% on a month-over-month basis, the first monthly decline since January, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Wednesday.

The association said sales through its Multiple Listings Service were down in about 60% of all local housing markets last month.

CREA president Beth Crosbie said affordably priced single family homes are in short supply in some of the hottest markets and that contributed to the monthly decline.

“That said, there are other markets with ample supply, but sellers there are holding firm on price,” Crosbie said in a statement.

“There is a lot of variation in housing market trends depending on the type of housing, neighbourhood and price segment.”

Compared with a year ago, sales were up 10.6%. However CREA said September 2013 had five Sundays, considered to be the slowest day for home sales.

The average price for a home sold last month was $408,795, up 5.9% compared with a year ago.

Excluding the Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto markets, the average price was $325,406, up 4.5% from September 2013.

The aggregate composite MLS Home Price Index was up 5.28% compared with a year ago.

BMO Capital Markets senior economist Robert Kavcic noted that there were large regional differences in house prices with Vancouver, Toronto and Calgary posting strong gains.

“Conditions get decidedly weaker anywhere east of Toronto, with no city reporting average prices up more than 3% year-over-year, and fully half below year-ago levels,” Kavcic wrote in a report.

“The good news is that the wide disparities in Canada’s housing market largely reflect economic, demographic and supply/demand fundamentals at work, all but eliminating any fears of a widespread ’bubble.”’

The number of newly listed homes fell by 1.6% in September compared with August.

CREA said the national sales-to-new listings ratio was 55.7% in September compared with 55.6% in August and within the 40 to 60% range usually described as a balanced market.

The association noted that just over half of all local markets posted a sales-to-new listings ratio in the balanced range.

There were 5.9 months of inventory nationally at the end of September 2014, up slightly from 5.8 months in August.

TD Bank senior economist Randall Bartlett said the lack of listings on the market continued to be a surprise.

“This suggests that home price growth may have more upside room over the next few months,” Bartlett said in a report.

“While the housing market continues to defy expectations in 2014, we still remain of the view that housing activity will eventually cool from current levels. With home prices continuing to rise above incomes, affordability will become an obstacle to housing demand once interest rates do eventually begin to rise.”

Meanwhile, the Teranet—National Bank national composite house price index posted a monthly increase of 0.3% for September.

The increase came as prices rose in six of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed including gains in Calgary, Vancouver, Toronto, Halifax, Winnipeg and Quebec City.

Prices were flat in Edmonton and down from the month before in Hamilton, Montreal, Ottawa-Gatineau and Victoria.

Could targeted land transfer taxes cool Canada’s hottest markets?

Canadian Mortgage News

CMI 101 Series

Dreyer Group 101 Series

Financial FYI Series

First Time Buyers

Home Buying 101

Home Insurance

Latest News

Mortgage Rates

Refinancing

Retirement Planning

Self Employed

Ontario’s real estate association has launched an ad campaign to explain why they believe land transfer taxes hurt the economy. But in a hot housing market, could the tax be used to cool particular regions, such as Toronto and Vancouver?

Officials in Ottawa have made it clear they see no need to cool the market right now. Prime Minister Stephen Harper said Wednesday that he doesn’t anticipate a housing crisis in Canada, although he says a small percentage of Canadians are overextended and vulnerable to rate hikes.

But federal officials are exploring their options in case they change their minds. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. chief executive officer Evan Siddall noted Friday that CMHC has been evaluating further rule changes that it could recommend if house price growth remains strong or picks up.

Former Finance Minister Jim Flaherty tightened the rules that determine which mortgages are eligible for insurance four times, beginning in 2008, in an effort to ease the market. He also took a number of other steps, along with both the banking regulator and CMHC, to achieve that goal.

There are still a wide range of things Ottawa could do, including raising minimum down payments. But one thing has increasingly become clear: The federal government has been using measures that affect Canadians from coast to coast in the same way, but the degree of overvaluation in local housing markets varies tremendously. Price gains in Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver are eclipsing those in much of the country, and some markets are downright sluggish. Could municipalities take the lead, with measures that are tailored to their markets?

Enter the land transfer tax. No one is advocating this as the solution to inflated prices, but the idea of finding policies that zero in on the actual problem markets is worth a discussion.

A number of provinces and cities in Canada already have land transfer taxes, which are paid by real estate buyers. Toronto’s land transfer tax is progressive in that it varies with the value of the property (0.5 per cent on the first $55,000, 1 per cent from $55,000 to $400,000 and 2 per cent over that). The Ontario Real Estate Association says that it amounts to about $4,000 for the average home.

The Ontario Real Estate Association has launched its campaign about the negative impacts of the tax because municipal elections are in about a month.

“Municipalities across Ontario are looking to the province for new revenue tools or taxes,” the association’s president, Costa Poulopoulos, said in a press release. “One of the tools being considered is a second [i.e., municipal, in addition to the provincial tax] land transfer tax on home buyers, similar to the tax imposed by the City of Toronto. This tax carries a huge cost – no Ontario city can afford the kind of job losses Toronto has experienced because of the municipal land transfer tax.”

The association points to a research study done by Altus Group, a real estate consultancy, that argues that Toronto’s land transfer tax, which has been in effect since 2008, has significantly slowed down home sales. It estimates that 38,278 resales didn’t take place between 2008 and 2013 because of the tax. A report by the C.D. Howe Institute has estimated that the tax reduced real estate transactions by about 16 per cent. The city of Toronto imposed the tax purely to raise money – but it sounds like something that would have made that late Mr. Flaherty pretty happy.

“Depending on the size and structure of the tax levied, the LTT would lead to weakening in affordability and cool the housing market,” says Derek Burleton, deputy chief economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank. He added that a challenge for policy makers would be putting in place a tax that cools the market without tipping it toward a dramatic decline. For instance, if Toronto changed its land transfer tax or other cities imposed one at the same time as mortgage rates were rising, it could cause a major correction.

What if the tax were temporary, and would automatically be repealed when mortgage rates hit a certain level?

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce economist Benjamin Tal, while noting that he’s neither in favour nor against the idea, says such a tax could soften the impact of any future market correction by making the market more static. “And this is a more targeted way of looking at things,” he says.

The C.D. Howe Institute found that Toronto’s land transfer tax slowed down the lower-priced portion of the market more than the higher end (presumably because people at the lower end of the market are more sensitive to the added cost of the tax). But land transfer taxes could be applied to only a range of the market, for example homes that sell for more than $600,000.

Mr. Burleton notes that “over the longer term, there are concerns that a LTT would reduce mobility of people, which would have a negative unintended consequence on job markets and economic growth.”

Municipalities in Ontario, and generally elsewhere, require provincial permission to levy a land transfer tax, notes Finn Poschmann, vice-president of research at the C.D. Howe Institute.

He also points out that the tax reduces the affordability of homes, making it harder for potential movers to buy a home that they might have otherwise, so it drives down the after-tax price of a home, other things being equal.

“The LTT is a remarkably bad tax,” Mr. Poschmann says. “It keeps people where they are, as opposed to where they want to be, and blocks transactions that should have occurred – by definition, a nasty drag on the economy. And that makes it not a very good tool for dealing with a problem that you don’t and can’t know if you have.”

Follow Tara Perkins on Twitter: @taraperkins