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Sharp rebound in buyer confidence fuels Toronto condo recovery, says Urbanation

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The country’s largest condominium market has fully recovered and is breaking new ground, according to a Toronto research firm.

imageUrbanation Inc. says during the second quarter Toronto passed a new milestone with more than 100,000 condo dwellings in active development in the census metropolitan area. Of the 105,027 units in the pre-construction, under construction and occupancy phases, 18,744 remain unsold.

The firm notes in a release out Friday that’s “above historical averages but down 3% from a year earlier.”

The new condo market has performed well above expectations in the first half of the year Shaun Hildebrand, Urbanation’s senior vice-president, says there have been plenty of incentives in the marketplace for existing inventory and some new condo openings are proving more attractive to buyers.

“The new condo market has performed well above expectations in the first half of the year, reflecting a sharp rebound in buyer confidence,” said Mr. Hildebrand.

The 5,992 condo apartments sold in the second quarter were the third highest volume for that time of the year with only 2007 and 2011 having a better record for sales for the period. Sales were up 56% from the post-recession low reached in 2013.

Related Housing market skewed by handful of hot cities, Canada Guaranty CEO says Canadian home sales rise 0.8% to highest level in four years Ratings agency Fitch calls for more government action in ‘overvalued’ Canadian housing market The 12-month total for new condo sales was 18,463 and Urbanation says that is in line with the 10-year annual average.

Despite the boost in sales, prices have only moved up 2.8% from a year ago with Urbanation’ index showing an average sale price of $554 per square foot in the second quarter. Prices of unsold inventory climbed 1% to an average of $570 per square foot.

While sales have heated up, prices have remained in check due to competitive supply pressures “While sales have heated up, prices have remained in check due to competitive supply pressures and an absence of short-term speculation on the part of buyers,” said Mr. Hildebrand.

The market for existing condominiums has been hotter with resale sales hitting a record of 5,238 in the second quarter, up 12% from a year ago. New listings also hit a new high with 11,246 offered for sale in the second quarter, down 10% from a year ago.

Fewer new listings than sales led to tighter market conditions with the sales-to-listings ratio rising to 47% — a level Urbanation says is below the 50% characterized as a balanced market.

Prices for existing condo apartments jumped 3.4% in second quarter form a year ago but that was still good enough to set a record high of $427 per square foot for an existing condo.

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CMHC turns up scrutiny of condo investors as concerns of overheated market grow

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imageCanada’s housing agency is set to publish results of a Toronto and Vancouver condominium-owner survey as it seeks to address economist and policy maker concern that not enough is known about what’s driving price gains, documents show.

Canada Mortgage & Housing Corp. surveyed condo investors — those who purchased at least one condo that isn’t the owner’s primary residence — in August and September 2013, according to documents obtained by Bloomberg through an Access to Information request. Most of the content, including the number of people Ottawa-based CMHC contacted, the survey questions and the results, was redacted.

Calls are growing louder for more detail about who’s investing in the nation’s condo market, including how much is owned by foreigners, and what the risks are. Policy makers have warned for the past half decade a bubble may be forming in Canadian real estate, and some analysts have said prices are as much as 20% overvalued.

Related Sharp rebound in buyer confidence fuels Toronto condo recovery, says Urbanation Housing market skewed by handful of hot cities, Canada Guaranty CEO says Homebuilding rebounds quicker than expected with 35% jump in condos and apartments The lack of condo-ownership data in Canada “is a shortcoming,” Sal Guatieri, senior economist in Toronto for Bank of Montreal, said by phone July 22. “The more data, the better the quality of the data, the better the policy making.”

CMHC’s Condominium Owners Survey will be “factual and provides a descriptive profile of condominium investors,” the documents show. The agency expects to release the results of its survey, which doesn’t give an estimate of the share of foreign and corporate investors, in early August, according to a July 25 e-mail from spokesman Charles Sauriol.

Lowest Rates

National home sales reached the highest level in four years in June and prices in Toronto and Vancouver are up 12% and 29% on the year, a realtor report this month showed. Historically-low mortgage rates are adding momentum, and the Bank of Canada has kept its benchmark policy rate at 1% since 2010.

The survey to be released in August is CMHC’s second attempt. The agency conducted a telephone survey of Toronto and Vancouver condo investors in August 2012 in response to “industry concerns about the extent and nature of condominium investment and its sustainability,” according to a mostly- redacted August 2012 CMHC board presentation. The survey intended to determine what investors planned to do with their units, how long they intended to hold them, what would motivate them to sell, how much they put down and the source of the downpayment.

That survey wasn’t publicly released because it “didn’t produce results that were reliable enough,” CMHC’s Sauriol said in his July 25 e-mail.

Foreign Investment

The housing agency is monitoring foreign investment in real estate by tracking land registry data, hosting investor round tables and conducting surveys into vacancy rates and rents, according to the 2012 board presentation.

“There is no comprehensive data source of foreign investors in the Canadian housing market,” CMHC Interim Chief Executive Officer Douglas Stewart said in an Aug. 21, 2013 memo to Canada’s Employment Minister Jason Kenney. “Although some estimates can be gleaned from some municipal land registries, those estimates are not reliable.”

Stewart’s memo was in response to Kenney’s questions from a CMHC briefing about foreign investment in the Canadian housing market, the documents show. Kenney also asked about the impacts of changes to the Immigrant Investor Program in Vancouver and Australia’s foreign investment policy.

Investor Roundtable

Participants at a Toronto condo investor roundtable that CMHC hosted in March 2012 cited unidentified brokers who estimated foreigners with no ties to Toronto account for about 2% to 3% of total condo purchases in the city, according to meeting minutes that don’t include participant names or affiliations. The minutes, included with the other documents obtained by Bloomberg, had already been made public.

Fifteen percent of the stock managed by rental management companies is owned by foreigners, based on filings of non-resident tax forms, according to the roundtable minutes.

Demand for Toronto condominiums pushed prices to new highs in the second quarter. The average price rose 2.8% from a year earlier to a record $554 per square foot, even as the number of high-rise homes in the pre-construction, under construction and occupancy phases reached a high of 105,027 units in the city, Urbanation Inc., a Toronto-based consulting company, reported July 25.

Condominiums account for more than 1.6 million Canadian households, or about 12%, and more than half of those are located in the three largest markets Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal, according to Statistics Canada data.

“The gap between the importance of the real-estate market to the economy and the lack of publicly available information on it is mind-boggling,” Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, wrote in an April note to clients. “What is the share of foreign investors in the condominium market?”

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RE-bubble_thumbNot many lenders go on record forecasting a housing bubble, but what they say in private surveys is another matter.

FICO, a consumer analytics firm, released poll results on Tuesday that show just how concerned lenders are about housing overvaluation. But its data, which was picked up by multiple media outlets, featured responses primarily from U.S. respondents. The opinions of Canadian lenders, alone, haven’t been fully reported.

Today, however, we got our hands on Canadian-specific data, and it revealed some surprising expectations.

FICO surveyed 54 risk managers in the Canadian lending industry, and asked the following questions:

1) “Looking at the industry as a whole, over the next six months, do you expect the supply of credit for residential mortgages to”

  • Fall short of demand: 35% (said yes)
  • Exceed demand: 5.5% (said yes)
  • Meet demand: 59% (said yes)

Most lenders expect credit to simply meet consumer demand. But among those risk managers who didn’t, 19 out of 22 said credit availability would be insufficient for the remainder of this year. Over the next six months, the implications are that we could see a further growing real estate market, regulatory or mortgage liquidity constraints, and/or the possibility of smaller mortgage discounts.

2) “Looking at the industry as a whole, over the next six months, do you expect the level of residential mortgage delinquencies (of 90 days or more) to”

  • Increase: 37%
  • Decrease: 5.5%
  • Stay about the same: 55%

Of those expecting a change, 20 out of 23 risk managers said delinquencies would increase. According to FICO, 60% said that a high debt-to-income ratio is its biggest concern when underwriting a mortgage/loan.

The questions are, is this concern warranted and, if so, will lenders be proactive and keep lending criteria tighter than normal?

3) “Looking at the industry as a whole, over the next six months, do you expect the level of home equity line delinquencies to”

  • Increase: 38.8%
  • Decrease: 11%
  • Stay about the same: 50%

***********

FICO also asked, “If you are involved with residential mortgage lending, are you concerned that an unsustainable real estate bubble is inflating?”

A wide majority (more than 2 out of 3, or 68%) said that, yes, they were concerned about a growing bubble, versus 32% who expressed no such worries. Canadians’ degree of unease was notably higher than that of American respondents, 48% of whom expressed concern about overvaluation in the U.S.

This poll comes as home prices sit at or near record highs in most big metro areas. That’s despite the Finance Department applying the brakes with mortgage rule after mortgage rule.

Home Prices 1999-2014


Rob McLister, CMT (email)

Price surge fuels Canadians’ optimism about housing market to highest since before financial crisis – Consult with a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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house-salesCanadians are the most optimistic about the country’s real estate market in a more than six years as prices reignite.

Secret path revealed for China billions buying pricey homes in Vancouver, N.Y., Sydney

Allegations of Bank of China money-laundering has uncovered a scheme to sidestep currency restrictions that is fuelling property booms in Canada, U.S. and Australia. Find out more

The share of Canadians predicting higher home prices over the next six months rose to 47% last week, according to polling by Bloomberg and Nanos Research Group, the highest level since the survey began in 2008. That figure has risen 10 percentage points since April.

Get the latest data on Canada’s housing market

The data suggest Canadians are brushing off forecasts of a slowdown in a market some analysts have warned is unsustainable. Home prices rose 8.1% through the first five months of the year, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association, compared with a 1.3% gain over the same period in 2013, and prices may be poised for further gains if expectations for rising home values continue to whet demand.

The behavior of buyers today would be “completely ridiculous, unless there’s an implicit assumption that there’s going to be capital gains involved, and that’s a mentality that you see in these long upswings in prices,” Ben Rabidoux, president of North Cove Advisors Inc., a research firm that specializes in housing, said in a phone interview last week.

The survey, part of polling for the Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index, is based on phone interviews with 1,000 people, using a four-week rolling average of 250 respondents. The results are accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The share of Canadians who expect a drop in real estate prices was 11.6%. At 35.4 percentage points, the difference between optimists and pessimists is the widest since 2009.

Confidence Boost

The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index — derived from survey questions on real estate, job security, personal finances and the economic outlook — rose to the highest in more than four years led by stronger expectations for housing, gaining to 60.5 in the week ended July 11.

“Consumer confidence in Canada is being noticeably propelled by views on real estate,” said Nik Nanos, chairman of Nanos Research Group.

The housing market is rebounding from a lull this winter that saw colder-than-usual temperatures put a temporary chill on construction activity and home sales. Buyers are also taking advantage of historically low borrowing costs, with the Bank of Canada over the past year downplaying the likelihood of interest rate increases and lenders this spring lowering five-year fixed mortgage rates to below three%.

Bank Stocks

Regulatory efforts, meanwhile, to keep overly indebted borrowers out of the market have failed to quell gains. A government decision in 2012 to tighten qualification requirements for mortgages led to a temporary slowdown later that year, only to see the market recover in 2013.

Investors have noticed. Canadian lenders, which hold more than C$1 trillion worth of mortgages, have been among the world’s best performers since the middle of 2013. The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Banks Industry Group Index has gained about 22% in U.S.-dollar terms since June 3, 2013, compared with about 5% for the Bloomberg World Banks Index.

Canada’s six largest banks are among the top 10 stock performers among North American banks over the past year, led by Toronto-Dominion Bank’s 30% gain.

The surge in prices, coupled with household debt levels near record highs, has prompted analysts including Dan Werner, an equity analyst at Morningstar Inc., to warn of a retreat.

Within the next five years a correction in Canada is “almost inevitable,” Werner said in a note to investors this month. Prices could fall 25% to 30%, he said.

Biggest Risk

Even at the Bank of Canada, where policy makers have said they see signs that household debt is stabilizing, the issue is still seen as the biggest risk to the Canadian economy.

Outside of a few small corrections, Canadian home prices have been on a steady ascent more than 15 years. They are up 77% over the past 10 years, according to the Teranet-National Bank Home Price Index, roughly 10 times the pace of U.S. housing, according to the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case- Shiller composite-20 home price index.
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Calgary’s energy boom is fuelling record surge in luxury home sales – ask a Vancouver mortgage broker

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imageSotheby’s International RealtyThe estate, once owned by the Ford family of Henry Ford heritage, listed for $37.9-million, with views of the Rocky Mountains, comes with four fireplaces, $1 million in mouldings and two garages for six cars.

Twitter Google+ LinkedIn Email Comments More Larry Lindholm made his fortune in Calgary’s booming energy industry, building and selling an oilfield equipment company. Then he bought a $10.4 million mansion.

“This is the big reward,” Lindholm, 52, said from the new home he shares with wife, Kristi, 35, and their four kids. “Calgary’s a neat city to be part of, the opportunities are here right now. It’s amazing how it’s grown, with all the development taking place in the oil and gas sectors.”

The energy patch in Calgary, nicknamed “Cowtown” for its annual rodeo, and low mortgage rates are transforming Canada’s fourth largest city into a hub of luxury housing. Neighborhoods named Tuxedo Park and Hamptons are expanding as energy industry executives from Canada, the U.S. and Europe fuel record sales of Calgary’s most expensive homes.

Related Canada new home prices pushed higher by western gains Royal LePage says Canada’s big city housing markets continue to boom as small centres left behind Canada’s high-end home sales soar in first half of the year: Sotheby’s International Realty Canada

TIRION PROPERTIES LTD. Neighborhoods named Tuxedo Park and Hamptons are expanding as energy industry executives from Canada, the U.S. and Europe fuel record sales of Calgary’s most expensive homes. Lindholm’s 14,500 square-foot (1,347 square-metre) estate, which features an eight-foot Swarovski crystal chandelier, broke the record for the most expensive home sold in Calgary when he bought it last year. That mark was topped by a $11.1 million sale later that year, which in turn may be shattered by a current listing of a $37.9 million home once owned by Henry Ford’s family.

“Luxury demand is growing,” said Corinne Poffenroth, an agent for New York-based auctioneer Sotheby’s, who represented the Lindholms in their home purchase. “Our energy sector is very strong and it attracts top-ranking executives across the country and the world. There’s a lot of young new money.”

Helicopter Tours

While Vancouver and Toronto, Canada’s financial capital, boast the country’s most expensive housing, sales of luxury homes in Calgary are surging. Realtors in the city, known for sprawling suburbs and the tallest office tower in western Canada, sold 404 homes priced above $1 million in the year to June 13. That’s an all-time high for Calgary and more than 10 times the total for an entire year a decade ago, according to Calgary Real Estate Board data.

The jump in sales has been powered by oil, the most important commodity in the western province. Investment in Alberta’s oil sands may reach a peak this year of more than $30 billion, according to investment bank Peters & Co. That’s generating high-paying jobs in Calgary, Alberta’s biggest city, whose population expanded to 1.2 million last year.

Calgary has the highest concentration of millionaires in any of Canada’s major cities, according to Calgary Economic Development, a nonprofit group. Some of the city’s wealthiest residents and foreign buyers flock to tours of highly priced homes by helicopter. Sotheby’s International Realty Canada added a private helicopter service for its real estate clientele in Calgary in June, a first for the firm in Canada.

Oil Prices

“It’s a boom-bust economy that lives and dies by oil prices, and the housing market is the same,” said Robert Kavcic, Bank of Montreal senior economist in Toronto. “If you were to say what’s going to drive luxury real estate in Calgary, I’d say just oil prices.”

West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark crude, has averaged more than US$90 a barrel over the past five years, the longest stretch at that price. That stability is unusual for a volatile commodity whose price sank to US$33.87 a barrel in December 2009 from a record of almost US$150 six months earlier.

Low mortgage rates have also helped drive housing sales. Posted rates for a five-year loan have been at a record low of 4.79% since April 9. And some lenders are offering three- year variable-rate mortgages for as low as 1.99%.

Sotheby’s International RealtyThe former estate of Henry Ford’s family is guarded by a security gate and surrounded by 242-acres of pastures and several lakes in Millarville, a 45-minute drive south of Calgary. Millionaire Mortgages

Millionaires are taking home loans because a lot of their assets are tied up in investments they don’t want to liquidate, said Martin Reid, president of Home Capital Group Inc., Canada’s largest alternative mortgage provider. Lenders often offer smaller loans for luxury homes because the prices are susceptible to big fluctuations. Reid said about 5% of the homes for which his company provides mortgages across Canada are priced above $1 million.

“We’re not going to give as much of a loan on a percentage basis as you get into that luxury space,” Reid said. “If it’s a $500,000 dollar house, we loan 75% of the value. If it’s a $2 million house, we’ll likely lend 60% of the value.”

Calgary, which sprang up in 1875 as a fort town for the North-West Mounted Police along the banks of the Bow and Elbow rivers, now has at least four neighborhoods where the average house price is $1 million or higher, according to the city’s real estate board.

Sotheby’s International RealtyOn the 242 acres are two houses with mountain views, one of Alberta’s only covered bridges, horse barn, pasture, paddocks, storage and riding areas, outbuildings and several large lakes. Henry Ford

Those communities include older areas like Mount Royal. It was developed by the Canadian Pacific Railway, which owned most of the land in Calgary in the early 20th century. Bel Aire, one of the established million-dollar areas, has a view over the city’s largest reservoir and is bordered by its oldest private golf course.

The former estate of Henry Ford, the founder of Ford Motor Co., is now listed for $37.9 million, the highest in the province. The 5,000-square-foot home is guarded by a security gate and surrounded by 242-acres (98-hectare) of pastures and several lakes in Millarville, a 45-minute drive south of Calgary. The home, with views of the Rocky Mountains, comes with four fireplaces, $1 million in mouldings and two garages for six cars.

Sotheby’s International RealtyThe home, with views of the Rocky Mountains, comes with four fireplaces and $1 million in mouldings alone. Energy Executives

“Oil and gas is definitely fueling the market,” said Sam Corea, a real estate agent with Re/Max Holdings Inc. in Calgary, who’s busiest during the energy industry’s bonus season in late winter.

Corea’s typical client is a professional in the oil and gas sector between the ages of 35 and 50 who wants expensive amenities including top-tier appliances and granite countertops.

“Calgary is a much more sophisticated market than it was 10 or 15 years ago,” said Corea, who last year sold 128 homes at an average price of $943,000 each.

Corea said the city’s housing could begin to lose its glow as supply catches up to demand.

“The market is starting to feel a bit like the spring of 2007 just before it stalled,” he said. “The market edge is starting to slip away.”

Supply Grows

Homes listed at more than $500,000 jumped 42% to 1,359 units in June over the same time last year, according to the city’s real estate board. Single detached homes will be constructed this year at the highest pace since 2007, according to forecasts by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

“As this market has moved into more balanced conditions, and if inventories continue to rise, price growth should ease throughout the remainder of the year,” said the board’s chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

Lindholm, the oil entrepreneur who drives a red Ferrari, said his father gave him a warning after he bought his castle-like home.

“My dad says, ’Nice house. You’re never going to be able to sell that’,” said Lindholm, who moved his family from a home in the city that they sold for $2 million. “I think he’s right. Maybe not now because there’s a small market for this size house — but it’s growing.”

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Household debt worries ease as pace of mortgage borrowing slows in May: study – Consult with a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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homesRoyal Bank says Canadians have been slowing down the amount of debt they are taking on to buy real estate, easing concerns about household vulnerability.

The RBC paper notes that overall household debt accumulation remained flat-lined at 4.2 per cent growth in May, about the same level as the previous three months.

Outstanding mortgage debt stood at $1.23-trillion as the annualized growth slowed slightly to five per cent from 5.1 per cent in April.

But households increased their pace of non-mortgage borrowing, the bank says, to 2.2 per cent from two per cent in April.

RBC says the steady pace of debt accumulation overall should give some comfort to the Bank of Canada, which has called household debt the No. 1 risk to the financial system and economy.

With the housing market expected to moderate further, the vulnerability posed by overly indebted households is easing, RBC says, clearing the way for the Bank of Canada to move toward higher interest rates by mid-2015.

Meanwhile, business borrowing continued to strengthen in May, with short-term debt rising to 10.6 per cent from 9.6 in April.

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156350123When you last shopped for a mortgage, did you consult with a credit union? If you’re like more than four out of five recent home buyers, you didn’t.

Most mortgage shoppers overlook credit unions (CUs) because they think the rates aren’t good enough, or CUs aren’t convenient enough, or that they’ll save more by consolidating banking at their bank. But credit unions are dead set on changing those perceptions, and they’re fuelling mortgage competition in the process.

We saw that competitive spirit in February when Meridian, the country’s fourth-largest credit union, became the first major financial institution in 2014 with a five-year fixed mortgage under 3 per cent. That first mover advantage paid off. “Our pipeline of mortgages is double what it was last year,” says Meridian chief member services officer Bill Whyte.

And just this month, Ontario’s DUCA Financial Services launched the lowest five-year fixed rate in the country through select mortgage brokers.

As we speak, the top 10 CUs are advertising five-year fixed rates that average 0.56 percentage points lower than the top 10 banks, according to RateSpy.com. That’s not including the profit sharing that some CUs pay mortgage customers. These “member dividends” can range up to $200-plus per year for every $100,000 of mortgage.

Of course, banks can and do offer “discretionary” rates below their advertised rates. But discretionary rates aren’t visible on the Internet, where four out of five consumers go to research mortgages. That benefits credit unions, to the extent they publish lower advertised rates.

Like credit unions, banks are also recognizing that low rates can sell themselves. Bank of Montreal’s much-publicized 2.99-per-cent promotions helped make it No. 1 among big banks in mortgage market share growth since 2012. And now we’re seeing other banks jump on that bandwagon, including Bank of Nova Scotia and Toronto-Dominion Bank, which both ran sub-3 per cent five-year fixed specials this spring.

But credit unions are going a little further to win mortgage share, and people are taking notice. In 2013, CU mortgage portfolios grew 58 per cent faster than the overall market. And they show no signs of letting up.

CUs kicked their mortgage campaigns into high gear last summer. And the market share growth chart at the bottom of this column shows it. Credit union analyst David McVay, of McVay and Associates, attributes that growth spurt largely to credit unions’ “aggressive pricing.”

But low rates aren’t their only edge. CUs also pitch that they are member owned, not owned by outside investors. They don’t have to pay dividends to 3rd-party shareholders, which lets them work on smaller margins and/or pay dividends to their customers instead.

Regulation is also an advantage. “Being provincially regulated, we have more mortgage options available to our members than the big banks,” Meridian’s Mr. Whyte says, “… and we’re appropriately leveraging that, albeit not cutting any corners.”

Those mortgage “advantages” vary widely by credit union, but can include higher borrowing limits on a home equity line of credit, 35-year amortizations for those putting down 20 per cent or more, 100 per cent financing and easier qualification rules for conventional variable-rate mortgages and terms less than five years.

But if credit unions are so great, why do they have a piddly 8 to 13 per cent of mortgage market share, depending on whose statistics you believe?

Awareness is a major challenge. CUs don’t have $200-million to $300-million a year to spend on marketing like the banks do. “I would suggest we haven’t got our story out there about how co-operative banking is an alternative to the banks … and the fact that we can do almost everything the banks can do,” Mr. Whyte says.

To counter that, CUs are increasingly running high-profile rate specials, some of which are being picked up by the media. They’re also doing a lot of joint marketing. Last year, for example, a group of Ontario credit unions got together to promote co-operative banking. They’ve never done that before, Mr. Whyte says.

One area where banks outclass most credit unions is mortgage funding, an area where credit unions are clearly not created equal. However, the larger CUs – Vancouver City Savings Credit Union, Coast Capital, Servus and Meridian – can compete with the big banks through their access to millions of dollars of cheap deposits, their main source of mortgage funding.

After deposits, the next cheapest way to fund mortgages is securitization – i.e., packing mortgages and selling them to investors. And CUs are securitizing like never before. In Ontario, for example, CU mortgage securitization grew 36.2 per cent last quarter, dramatically faster than the industry.

Compared to the big boys, smaller credit unions don’t have as much low-cost capital, so they’re often not as competitive on rates. But even there you can find exceptions, like Toronto’s Slovenia Credit Union and its 2.89-per-cent five-year fixed.

The Internet is the great equalizer for micro-credit unions like Slovenia. Whenever they have excess deposits to lend out, they can cheaply advertise ultra-low rates online to thousands of potential customers. “The Internet will help [credit unions] level the playing field with the big banks,” Mr. Whyte adds.

The Internet also makes it easier to attract new customers. Meridian, for example, is launching a new website next month that lets people join the credit union online, instead of driving to a branch.

Despite their co-operative spirit, however, CUs have an uphill battle to steal share from the dominant banks. Banks are ubiquitous and perceived safe, so people park most of their accounts with them. Moreover, consumers’ preference for one-stop financial shopping gives banks an edge in the mortgage game.

But mortgages are a big deal to CUs too. They account for about half of their revenue and roughly 60 per cent of the loans they make. Furthermore, mortgages give them a chance to cross-sell things such as credit cards, GICs and RRSPs.

So despite being around for 113 years, this is only the beginning for Canadian credit unions in the mortgage market. They’re going to battle to the bone for your mortgage, and the competition they incite will benefit all borrowers.

Editor’s note: A previous version of this story mis-identified Mr. Whyte.

Robert McLister is a mortgage planner at intelliMortgage Inc. and founder ofRateSpy.com. You can follow him on Twitter at @RateSpy and@CdnMortgageNews.

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homesCanada’s top banking regulator is urging mortgage lenders and insurers not to grow complacent despite healthy bank capital levels and predictions of a soft landing in the housing market.

In a speech at a C.D. Howe Institute housing conference on Thursday, Mark Zelmer, deputy superintendent of the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, highlighted the continuing growth in household debt relative to income.

“I would not presume to claim that borrowers are acting irrationally or do not know what they are doing. But, by same token, it is clear that the ability of the household sector as a whole to absorb major shocks is less now than it was a decade ago,” Mr. Zelmer said in his prepared remarks.

It is clear that the ability of the household sector as a whole to absorb major shocks is less now than it was a decade ago

“Moreover, with interest rates near record low levels, there is not much scope for interest rates in Canada or the United States to fall further – something that helped people weather storms in the past,” he said.

Mr. Zelmer said having well-capitalized lenders might not be enough in times of stress, noting that creditors and investors often lose confidence in financial institutions before they run out of capital.

“Recall that some financial institutions lost access to funding markets in the midst of the global financial crisis even though they were reporting healthy regulatory capital ratios at the time,” he said. “Sitting back and relying on capital is not enough for either financial institutions or prudential supervisors.”

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Mr. Zelmer said stress tests, which so far indicate Canadian banks are prepared for a downturn, should not be viewed as overarching “safe harbours” because they are based on models and arbitrary assumptions.

“The results are … comforting. But given the considerable uncertainty associated with stress test results, they are but one input into our decision-making,” Mr. Zelmer said.

“Boards and senior management of financial institutions need to apply judgment in a forward-looking manner and not become too complacent in their capital planning exercises.”

While Canada’s recent housing activity has been far less troubled in recent years than in other markets such as the United States, Mr. Zelmer reminded his audience of the downturn experienced a couple of decades ago.

“Canada has not been immune from significant real estate corrections in the past and the damage they can inflict, as those of you who worked in the early 1980s and 1990s would know,” he said.

“We all have an interest in ensuring housing markets and the financial intermediation supporting them function smoothly.”

Mr. Zelmer noted that consumer debt relative to household income continues to grow at a rate of 4%. And while this is slower than in the past, he noted a small but important group of Canadians who are in a potentially difficult situation “camouflaged” by low interest rates. This group is taking on debt “to make ends meet in the wake of unfortunate life events such as job losses or marriage breakdowns,” he said.

This situation could prove especially tough if house prices don’t remain as strong as expected.

“We believe it makes sense to work with mortgage lenders and insurers to reduce the likelihood of serious problems in the first place by promoting strong governance and risk management controls around mortgage lending and insurance underwriting activities,” Mr. Zelmer said. “This is especially true given residential real estate lending represents more than 60 per cent of bank lending in Canada.”

In his speech, Mr. Zelmer said mortgage underwriting practices have evolved. And while they appear good today, he warned, “past experience suggests that it could become very tempting in the current environment for mortgage lenders and insurers to ease up under the enchanting lull of the siren song of market share.”

‘HGTV effect’ pushes home renovation spending to record $63-billion – Consult with a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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home-renovationTORONTO • It could be just the impact of all those home-renovation television programs, but Canadians are fixing up their properties like never before, according to a new report.

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“Willingness, at least in part, can be attributed to what is sometimes referred to as the HGTV effect,” Toronto-based real estate consultants Altus Group said, referring to the television station HGTV Canada that launched in 1997 with an emphasis on home renovation. “Many homeowners did not know how badly they really wanted new designer kitchens until then.”

Renovation spending has been rising for 15 straight years and reached a record $63.4-billion in 2013, which accounted for 3.7% of total Canadian gross domestic product, Altus said. More money is being spent on renovation than on all new home construction.

It’s not just leaky roofs that are part of that spending; three of every four renovation dollars are being spent on real home improvement. In real dollar terms, renovation spending jumped 2.7% in 2013.

Altus is predicting about 3% growth in real dollar terms in renovation spending both this year and next as homeowners turn to sprucing up their abodes in the face of record home prices.

“Broad economic and employment growth in 2014 are positive for higher disposable income. This, combined with still robust home sales and continued low interest rates, should support further growth,” Altus said in the report, released Monday.

Canada has a larger housing stock than it did a decade ago, which is partly why renovation spending has more than doubled since the latter 1990s. But Altus estimates only 25% of the growth is due to the greater number of houses, with three quarters of that attributable to people just spending more per housing unit.

In the past five years, renovation per occupied housing unit was about $4,600 per year, up from $2,500 per year from the 1994-1998 period.

Home owners pulled money out of their homes only to put it right back in

Altus said there is a “willingness and ability” to undertake renovation work.

The willingness may come from seeing fancy kitchens on TV, but the ability to pay for these renovations can be attributed to lower interest rates and rising home values that have left homeowners with more equity to tap into for a substantial upgrade.

“Essentially, home owners pulled money out of their homes only to put it right back in,” said Altus, which found mortgage financing and home equity lines of credit were the most common method to get cash for a project.

However, Altus also noted statistics from Bank of Canada show many people have the cash to do projects without borrowing. From 1999-2010, borrowing only accounted for 25% of all renovation work.

Alberta is expected to lead the pack in renovation spending in 2014 and 2015 with the Altus survey indicating a growth in spending of 5% each year in the province.

On a dollar level, Ontario and Quebec still account for most of the activity in the country with two of every three renovation dollars spent in those provinces. Ontario spending is forecast to grow 2.6% next year, just below the 2.9% national average.

CMHC to return to lower-risk roots – Consult with a Vancouver Mortgage Broker

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evan-siddall17rb1The head of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. is shifting the priority of the mortgage insurer to helping Canadians buy homes they need, not the bigger, pricier homes they might want.

Chief executive officer Evan Siddall said in an exclusive interview that his first six months on the job have been focused on building an organization that will be more flexible and transparent, one that will do more to emphasize its social housing role and less to subsidize the banks. And one that will only help Canadians purchase homes they need. That will result in fewer and smaller new insurance policies, and will stem the risk to Canadian taxpayers of losses at CMHC should the housing market slump.

 

“We help Canadians meet their housing needs, not exceed them,” Mr. Siddall told The Globe and Mail’s editorial board, as he outlined the mandate that will guide his time at the helm of the mortgage insurer.

It’s a return in direction back CMHC’s roots, after a period in which it was accused of stoking the housing market. CMHC is the country’s dominant seller of mortgage insurance, which essentially reimburses lenders if a borrower defaults on a mortgage. The insurance is mandatory any time a federally-regulated lender sells a mortgage to someone who doesn’t have a down payment of at least 20 per cent. While the banks are technically responsible for paying the insurance fees, in practice they pass them on to home buyers.

Mortgage insurance reduces the risks to the banks, encouraging them to lend more, and making it easier and cheaper to obtain mortgages.

The Crown corporation was created in 1946 to help returning war veterans buy homes, but it has grown to become the size of one of Canada’s biggest banks. Over the past 10 years CMHC has at times dabbled in backing 40-year mortgages with no down payment, mortgages on second homes, mortgages on homes worth seven figures, and loans for condominium construction. But it has been recently scaling back amid fears of taxpayer exposure to the housing market

CMHC has an explicit government guarantee, leaving taxpayers on the hook if things go sour. Mr. Siddall said he does not believe the housing market is in dangerous territory, but even so, managing risk for taxpayers is a “sacred obligation.”

In recent months, the insurer has rolled out a string of changes that have underlined the shift in emphasis, including eliminating insurance for second homes and all individual insurance on homes over $1-million.

“The first thing we did as an executive group is we spent a lot of time thinking about our purpose,” said Mr. Siddall, a former investment banker at Bank of Montreal and Goldman Sachs & Co., who also worked as a special adviser to former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney.

Mr. Siddall is continuing the direction that was set for the organization by former finance minister Jim Flaherty, who started pulling the government’s backing for homes priced over $1-million two years ago. But he is also putting his own stamp on CMHC at a time when current Finance Minister Joe Oliver has said he plans to take a less active role in the housing sector.

“We manage the government’s exposure to the tail risk of a housing crisis,” Mr. Siddall said. “And we do that with taxpayers’ money. That’s a sacred obligation and a core obligation of what we do.”

He added that the Crown corporation is choosing to cut its own risks. “There has been speculation that these changes have been imposed on us by Finance. That’s not true,” he said. “In fact, my first meeting with the Minister of Finance won’t be until later this week.”

That’s not to say there hasn’t been interaction with government, which recently placed the deputy minister of finance on CMHC’s board. Ottawa has been working to stem the growth of CMHC because it has racked up massive taxpayer exposure to the housing market, and some of its products have helped to fuel house prices.

Mr. Siddall said the Canadian market is “modestly overvalued” but he believes that there will be a soft landing, meaning a gradual petering out as opposed to any crash in prices.

“If prices continue to grow, all things being equal, we would be worried,” he said. “But we are not concerned right now about the level of prices or the level of activity in the housing market.”

Sales of existing homes in Canada sprang to life in May, rising 5.9 per cent from April, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). That’s the highest month-to-month increase in almost four years, and was much higher than economists expected.

“The housing market remains remarkably resilient,” Bank of Montreal economist Benjamin Reitzes said in a research note. “As long as rates remain at rock-bottom levels, housing isn’t like to weaken much, if at all.”

While sales slumped through the cold winter months, price growth has continued to be relatively strong. CREA said Monday that it now expects the national average home price will rise 5.7 per cent this year to $404,300. In March it was forecasting a 3.8-per-cent increase to $397,000.

While the current prices don’t concern Mr. Siddall, he said the organization is worried about consumer debt levels.

“We are concerned about the elevated level of Canadian consumer indebtedness,” he said, adding that it removes consumers’ ability to withstand an unforeseen event.

During the meeting with The Globe, he emphasized the importance of CMHC’s basic role in the market, while acknowledging that more should be done to shift risk back to the banks and the private sector. His comments come amid criticism from groups such as the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which argued in a report about the state of Canada’s economy last week that the government should consider privatizing CMHC’s insurance activities.

“People like the OECD, when they wonder about our model, kind of miss the memo about the role CMHC can play,” Mr. Siddall said. “Now, we [do] have a responsibility to attend to how large that should be.”

The OECD also called for changes to the system to ensure lenders take on more risk for home loans. It noted that in other countries with mortgage insurance, the insurance tends to cover 10 to 30 per cent of the losses, rather than 100 per cent, and suggested imposing a deductible.

The concept of a deductible is a “pretty good idea,” Mr. Siddall said, although it would take some time to be put into practice in Canada.

Finance Minister Oliver said Monday that the idea of having CMHC insure only a portion of mortgages, rather than the entire loan, is one that could be looked at. Mr. Oliver said he would like to see the private sector mortgage insurers take a larger share of the market and that when it comes to taking further steps to reduce risk, “the specific decisions taken by CMHC will be their decision.”

When it comes to CMHC’s large securitization arm, which essentially packages up mortgages and sells them as bonds or helps banks sell them, Mr. Siddall said he’s worried that it’s a low-cost form of wholesale funding for the institutions and “that means we’re subsidizing banks. … And that is something that over time we should address.”

It’s too soon to say how, he added. “We’ve got to make sure we do it in a way that’s supportive of markets, that we do it in consultation with banks so that we don’t disrupt their businesses,” he said.

With files from reporter Bill Curry in Ottawa

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